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re: ADP Jobs Number nearly doubles expectations; recession still imminent?
Posted on 8/2/23 at 8:22 pm to molsusports
Posted on 8/2/23 at 8:22 pm to molsusports
quote:
Zoom in over the last 12 months. Dropped off by 10% in only a quarter. That is not good and not consistent with job creation. At the very least people are working lower paying jobs and/or fewer hours.
I'm open to being convinced otherwise. Just show me a reversal in the FRED data.
There is a relatively weak correlation, if one at all, between tax receipts, unemployment numbers, and real GDP growth.
Unemployment is in percent, GDP and quarterly tax receipts are in percent change from previous quarter.
I don't remember many people around here hailing the Biden economy when tax receipts were up 15% in 1Q 2022, even though GDP fell. But now it's doom and gloom when receipts were down 9% in the 1Q and flat in the 2nd, even though GDP was positive in the 2nd Q and unemployment remains at historic lows?
Anyone remember the 2016 and 2018 early year recessions?
1
Posted on 8/2/23 at 8:23 pm to Big_Sur
quote:
Out of curiosity, what's a good way to hedge against the impending deflation?
, BTC, obviously. 
Posted on 8/2/23 at 9:04 pm to slackster
People are calling bullshite on the employment data for non political reasons so please do everyone a favor and stop trying to talk about Biden. Normally we would not have to reach for indirect data like tax receipts for the truth but here we are (with suboptimal data now more reliable than what should be impartial third party data).
The major point is that data are being misrepresented consistently. Are there institutional reasons for consistent errors of this type? Probably. But we can't definitively identify motivation so I'd rather not get bogged down in that. Let's just try to be open minded about what is apparently happening. The estimated numbers are magically being over estimated every time and every time being quietly revised downwards with minimal or no public acknowledgement.
Here's one example:
You will have a very difficult time convincing me that many well qualified economists are making these types of massive errors so consistently in a non random pattern.
The major point is that data are being misrepresented consistently. Are there institutional reasons for consistent errors of this type? Probably. But we can't definitively identify motivation so I'd rather not get bogged down in that. Let's just try to be open minded about what is apparently happening. The estimated numbers are magically being over estimated every time and every time being quietly revised downwards with minimal or no public acknowledgement.
Here's one example:
quote:
Danielle DiMartino Booth
@DiMartinoBooth
@BLS_gov
data through Q2 '22: Business Employment Dynamics switched direction. Net employment change flipped to NEGATIVE 287K jobs vs. +1.5M in Q1 & +936K in Q2 '21 validating
@philadelphiafed
data of +10.5K jobs created in Q2 '22 v 1.1M originally reported
You will have a very difficult time convincing me that many well qualified economists are making these types of massive errors so consistently in a non random pattern.
Posted on 8/2/23 at 10:25 pm to molsusports
quote:
Let's just try to be open minded about what is apparently happening. The estimated numbers are magically being over estimated every time and every time being quietly revised downwards with minimal or no public acknowledgement.
Let's go with that...
Our discussion began with your assertion that quarterly tax receipts down, jobs down, and presumably quarterly tax receipts up, jobs up.
You've posted that job growth was essentially nil in the first half of 2022, and I've posted that real GDP was negative, yet tax receipts increased quarter over quarter more in 1Q22 than any quarter since 1986. Point being - tax receipts are a mediocre at best tool for gauging the US economy and/or job market.
Also, even with the 1Q23 dip, and 2Q23 plateau, receipts are still well above the trend for the last decade.
Posted on 8/2/23 at 10:56 pm to slackster
Would you agree that the estimated numbers for job creation have been exceptionally inaccurate over the past couple of years? And that the revised numbers have been substantially lower repeatedly?
What is your best explanation for this?
This seems like a testable explanation. If errors are random then the error should randomly distribute either too high or too low.
What is your best explanation for this?
This seems like a testable explanation. If errors are random then the error should randomly distribute either too high or too low.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 12:43 am to molsusports
quote:
Would you agree that the estimated numbers for job creation have been exceptionally inaccurate over the past couple of years? And that the revised numbers have been substantially lower repeatedly?
Probably, but ADP, a private company that handles payroll for something like 25% of the country, has also been all over the map too. Their reports show we added something like 3.7mm private jobs last year.
Also, the household survey that ZeroHedge likes to focus on has turned around in a big way the last 9 or so months. I believe it shows somewhere around 2.5mm jobs added.
Regardless, sampling this country and extrapolating that has clearly gotten much more difficult in the last few years. The changing job landscape is not modeled all that well - that’s my best guess.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 7:05 am to slackster
quote:
sampling this country and extrapolating that has clearly gotten much more difficult in the last few years. The changing job landscape is not modeled all that well - that’s my best guess
If the errors are randomly distributed shouldn't they be bidirectional?
When they consistently err in one direction...
We're at the point where the errors are too large and too non randomly distributed to be acceptable.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 7:09 am to Diffusedsmoke
quote:
Im sure you were just speaking about the subject without the knowledge to do so effectively.
quote:
Diffusedsmoke
Number of Posts:8
Registered on:3/11/2022
Tell me a wake up story, mommy. Do your research before you drag up your alter.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 9:47 am to BestBanker
LINK
GDP increased by 2.0% the first quarter of 2023 and 2.4% the second quarter of 2023. I did my research and it reveals that you are wrong.
Damn son, you're a banker? There is no way. You're a teller a best.
GDP increased by 2.0% the first quarter of 2023 and 2.4% the second quarter of 2023. I did my research and it reveals that you are wrong.
Damn son, you're a banker? There is no way. You're a teller a best.
This post was edited on 8/3/23 at 11:23 am
Posted on 8/3/23 at 9:55 am to BestBanker
What is your evidence we are in a recession right now?
Posted on 8/3/23 at 12:48 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Basically every economic and market data point besides the unemployment rate, GDP and equity valuations. All of these are lagging indicators, two of which are highly probably to be adjusted down in the future (UE/GDP). Only one of these (GDP) would indicate growth is slowing in isolation and it's extremely flawed. The past few quarters would be examples of why.
It shouldn't be so unbelievable to believe considering exactly 1 year ago we were in one and 2 years prior in the worst economic collapse we probably have on record in the U.S. Unless your definition of a recession is when the NBER reports one. In that case you will never in your lifetime live in a recession. It will always be declared after the fact.
It shouldn't be so unbelievable to believe considering exactly 1 year ago we were in one and 2 years prior in the worst economic collapse we probably have on record in the U.S. Unless your definition of a recession is when the NBER reports one. In that case you will never in your lifetime live in a recession. It will always be declared after the fact.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 1:31 pm to JohnnyKilroy
If we're not right now, we likely will be. LINK
Ever since going off Bretton Woods the yield curve as inverted prior to every single recession we've had. The current inversion is at levels we haven't seen since the late 70s/early 80s.
***EDIT***
And also, there's this: Jim Cramer doesn’t see a recession on the horizon. That pretty much guarantees a recession.
Ever since going off Bretton Woods the yield curve as inverted prior to every single recession we've had. The current inversion is at levels we haven't seen since the late 70s/early 80s.
***EDIT***
And also, there's this: Jim Cramer doesn’t see a recession on the horizon. That pretty much guarantees a recession.
This post was edited on 8/3/23 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 8/3/23 at 6:11 pm to Bard
quote:
“Bidenomics is working! It’s working!” Kamala Harris shouted after Fitch downgraded the US’s long-term credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
Posted on 8/4/23 at 3:14 pm to slackster
Uh, this was not a good report. At all.
Posted on 8/4/23 at 3:21 pm to SloaneRanger
Both CSX and Union Pacific reported lower carloadings (I haven't looked at other rail reports) and Maersk is projecting lower global container volumes.
It's coming.
In my experience the railroads were the canary in the coal mine. We'd see train counts dropping and there would be a recession about 6 months later,
It's coming.
In my experience the railroads were the canary in the coal mine. We'd see train counts dropping and there would be a recession about 6 months later,
Posted on 8/4/23 at 3:35 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Uh, this was not a good report. At all.
ADP was, which is the topic of the thread.
As for the BLS number today, the establishment number missed expectations, but the household survey - the numbers some pundits like ZeroHedge have been saying tell the real truth - showed an increase of 268k jobs.
Posted on 8/4/23 at 5:20 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Both CSX and Union Pacific reported lower carloadings (I haven't looked at other rail reports) and Maersk is projecting lower global container volumes. It's coming. In my experience the railroads were the canary in the coal mine. We'd see train counts dropping and there would be a recession about 6 months later,
I feel like I read this exact post last year and the year before that.
Btw we also just set a record for domestic petroleum fuel demand this past week.
This post was edited on 8/4/23 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 8/4/23 at 5:55 pm to JohnnyKilroy
I feel like this is a good time to remind everyone that the background chance of a recession in any given year is about 15%.
Posted on 8/4/23 at 6:10 pm to Bard
RuhRoh....get ready boys, it's coming now
Posted on 8/5/23 at 10:21 am to slackster
quote:
Probably, but ADP, a private company that handles payroll for something like 25% of the country, has also been all over the map too.
85% of ADP's customers are small-medium businesses under 10k employees. So large companies announcing mass layoffs will not show up in the ADP data. ADP also does a disproportionate number of businesses (professional services, retail, etc) that will be lagging indicators to those businesses' customer losing jobs. Here's a breakdown of ADP's customer base. LINK
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