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re: 600 pts down? WTH is going on

Posted on 10/23/24 at 7:40 pm to
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22480 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

Been that way since the beginning of time
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89580 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

Now do 2000 Bush v Gore and the aftermath that ensued.


That had essentially everything to do with the very well defined Dot Com bubble continuing to burst than it did with the election.



The Nasdaq bottom was falling out with or with an election issue.
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
14026 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

Been that way since 2020


People have accurately predicted seven of the last zero bear markets.

To the OP, stocks can go down. It hasn’t happened much, but it is not necessarily the sign of anything. Most think Trump will be better for business. The market has historically done better when democrats were in office. The drop from the last two days has nothing to do with the election. It has likely been due to rates.
Posted by METAL
Member since Nov 2020
1378 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:22 pm to
Money is fake
Markets are manipulated

Next question.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89580 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

SPX jumped 10% the day after the election. Absolutely massive short cover


Huh? From trough to peak on Wednesday it was up 2.5%.

It’s not 10% even if you count the crazy futures reaction, which was actually a ton of downward pressure and the opposite of a short cover.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60681 posts
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

Money is fake Markets are manipulated Next question.


Give us some investment advice.
Posted by Matt225
St. George
Member since Dec 2019
1067 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 4:55 am to
gee a down day of -1%.
Maybe you need just stay in safer investments.
Posted by Tomatocantender
Boot
Member since Jun 2021
5278 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

That had essentially everything to do with the very well defined Dot Com bubble continuing to burst than it did with the election.


You think 40 plus days of an undecided president (where no one was the incumbent) didn't play a major factor in the stock market tanking within those 40 plus days?????? My God this place has lost its ever loving minds. Nice revisionist history attempt Slackster.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38471 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

You think 40 plus days of an undecided president (where no one was the incumbent) didn't play a major factor in the stock market tanking within those 40 plus days?????? My God this place has lost its ever loving minds. Nice revisionist history attempt Slackster.



Well it was down to Gore or Bush. The market priced in the possibility of either one winning. Taking an extra month to figure out who won was meaningless to the market. It's not like we didn't have a president lmao.
Posted by Skervix
Member since Aug 2018
214 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 3:41 pm to
I remember Trump stating if Biden were elected in 2020, the market would crash like never before. Never happened.
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
2306 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

Good thing we got that .5 cut so mortgage rates would dro...


Mortgage rates price in the Fed’s anticipated actions. They move prior to…
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36886 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 4:39 pm to
quote:



You think 40 plus days of an undecided president (where no one was the incumbent) didn't play a major factor in the stock market tanking within those 40 plus days?????? My God this place has lost its ever loving minds. Nice revisionist history attempt Slackster.
What point are you trying to make here? You seem very angry but not actually saying anything.
Posted by Tomatocantender
Boot
Member since Jun 2021
5278 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 5:00 pm to
quote:

Taking an extra month to figure out who won was meaningless to the market.


I didn't think anyone could be this dumb. Congrats, you managed to make these other 2 losers actually look competent by comparison. 40 days of an undecided president in 2000 was detrimental to the stock market. Some of you have the functioning IQ and critical thinking skills of a wet noodle.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36886 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 5:15 pm to
quote:


I didn't think anyone could be this dumb. Congrats, you managed to make these other 2 losers actually look competent by comparison. 40 days of an undecided president in 2000 was detrimental to the stock market. Some of you have the functioning IQ and critical thinking skills of a wet noodle.
What does any of this have to do with the earlier mentions of predictions by either side that the other side winning would tank the markets?
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38471 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

40 days of an undecided president in 2000 was detrimental to the stock market.


Based on what? You saying it over and over again?
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36886 posts
Posted on 10/24/24 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

Based on what? You saying it over and over again?
It's unclear what claims he is actually making. The S and P was a roller coaster the entire year leading up to election day - including being on a 6% down move already. It did go down as much as 8% more prior to December 12th when SCOTUS called the thing. It then proceeded to finish even lower than that on the year.

It seems preposterous to argue that this was somehow independent of the popping of the tech bubble. Another 3 months later it was down almost 15% more. I guess DECIDING the POTUS REALLY fricking spooked the market.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
55456 posts
Posted on 10/25/24 at 7:18 am to
quote:

Mortgage rates price in the Fed’s anticipated actions. They move prior to…


So mortgage rates went down prior to the .5 cut because they priced it in due to anticipating it but now are going back up because they are pricing in the anticipated extra .5 in cuts by the end of the year?

Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60681 posts
Posted on 10/25/24 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Tomatocantender


This guy has a few screws loose. Something is off with him.
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
2306 posts
Posted on 10/25/24 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

So mortgage rates went down prior to the .5 cut because they priced it in due to anticipating it but now are going back up because they are pricing in the anticipated extra .5 in cuts by the end of the year?


You're little passive-aggressive smily face is itself laughable given you aren't nearly as knowledgable/smart as you think you are.

Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield more so than the Federal Funds rate. You do know this, right?

They are going back up because of stronger than expected economic data places doubt on the pace of follow on cuts.

In general (I say this because there are other elements that play into it as well), yields rise/fall based on sentiment/outlook/confidence. If confidence is low, then people move into safer investments like Treasuries; more demand = price goes up = yield goes down = mortgage rates go down. If confidence is high, then people move away from treasuries and into alternatives; less demand = price goes down = yields go up = mortgage rates go up.

Save the smugness and go get your fricking shine box.



quote:

When the Fed cut interest rates last month, many hoped it would kick-start the frozen housing market. Mortgage rates track the 10-year US Treasury yield, which was expected to fall in anticipation of further rate cuts. But recent economic data has looked stronger than expected, which has shifted the market’s expectations, sending bond yields higher.

For example, the government’s latest batch of employment data released earlier this month showed that monthly job growth in September was much better than expected. More recently, a separate report on retail spending released last week showed that consumer demand, a key driver of the US economy, remains solid. Further data like that could slow the pace of rate cuts.


quote:

Although mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate


quote:

the 30-year-fixed mortgage rate is somewhat benchmarked by the 10-year Treasury bond yield, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage typically higher than the 10-year Treasury yield.

The difference between the two is known as the mortgage spread.


quote:

Fixed-rate mortgages — the most popular type of home loan — don’t mirror the federal funds rate, however; they track the 10-year Treasury yield (more on that below).


quote:

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When that goes up or down, fixed-rate mortgage rates follow suit.


quote:

We have seen in recent months mortgage rates coming down because the market was expecting this to happen.


quote:

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates starting in September.

But expectations for the Fed to move have already driven mortgage rates lower, and borrowing costs could fall further ahead of the central bank taking action.


quote:

Douglas Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, told Yahoo Finance in an interview that when "the 10-year [Treasury] comes down, the mortgage rate typically comes down with it. Maybe not as far, maybe sometimes further. It depends on what else is happening in the market.


quote:

Duncan explained that as bond traders have already priced in a rate cut, mortgage rates have also come down.


quote:

"The 30-year mortgage rates can continue to fall ahead of actual Fed rate cuts, as they are priced off of 5-10-year bonds, not the Fed Funds Rate,"


quote:

Cohn explains that changes in the federal funds rate don’t directly affect mortgage rates. Instead, they tend to be influenced by the bond market and the yields paid to investors. Bonds, in turn, are influenced by the economy and labor market's overall strength.


quote:

Because the reduction in rates was so widely anticipated, many lenders have already priced it into their loan offerings. Mortgage rates have dropped by more than half a percentage point over the past six weeks based on signs of a slowing economy and the expectation of a rate cut this month.


quote:

This month’s widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut won’t lower mortgage rates as much as seen over the summer.
The rates you’re seeing today largely account for a September Fed cut already.
In general, the rates on 30-year mortgages are more closely tied to investor sentiment than Fed decisions.


quote:

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates at its Sept. 18 meeting — but don’t expect the move to send mortgage rates plummeting.

That’s because the mortgage market has already incorporated the Fed’s widely anticipated cut into the rates borrowers are paying for home loans today.

“I think a lot of people are looking at the September Fed meeting thinking that there’s going to be a big stair step down in rates,” says Jerimiah Taylor, chief real estate officer at Movoto, a real estate search site. “The reality is that it’s already priced in. You’re getting disproportionate movement in mortgage rates, which means the market is already starting to price in Fed cuts.”



quote:

The significant move in rates illustrates the reality that fixed mortgage rates are set not by the Fed, but by investors. The most important benchmark for mortgage rates is the 10-year Treasury rate. Mortgage rates tend to move up and down with that rate, which itself bounces around with economic sentiment.

“Mortgage rates move with the bond market, and if the Fed cuts rates, that is an indication that the economy is weakening and will support lower yields and lower mortgage rates,” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage. “Remember, mortgage rates are not tied directly to the Fed funds rate. They move with the bond market, which moves on economic data.



This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 7:03 pm
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60681 posts
Posted on 10/25/24 at 5:54 pm to
Can you please cut and paste a few more things?
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