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Started By
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50,000 Dow
Posted on 6/23/17 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 6/23/17 at 5:40 pm
Will we see it in our lifetimes?
I remember about 15 years ago, whenever it was the Dow hit 10,000, there was a widely reported quote from Warren Buffet saying "The market can't keep going up like this forever, or we'd have a 20,000 DJI in ten years!" and it was a sobering quote at the time, because 20k seemed ridiculous.
So, 15 years later, with some retrospect and some optimism, could we see a 50k Dow in the next 20-30 years?
And if so, why not keep laying out investments in large cap index funds?
I remember about 15 years ago, whenever it was the Dow hit 10,000, there was a widely reported quote from Warren Buffet saying "The market can't keep going up like this forever, or we'd have a 20,000 DJI in ten years!" and it was a sobering quote at the time, because 20k seemed ridiculous.
So, 15 years later, with some retrospect and some optimism, could we see a 50k Dow in the next 20-30 years?
And if so, why not keep laying out investments in large cap index funds?
9
Posted on 6/23/17 at 5:54 pm to deeprig9
I think we will get there.
The amount of money in the market via passive funds will push it there. Inflation caused by increased investment dollars. People are being conditioned to believe passive funds are completely safe set it and forget it. The broad buy strategies will propel the dow upwards because the demand will keep increasing
The amount of money in the market via passive funds will push it there. Inflation caused by increased investment dollars. People are being conditioned to believe passive funds are completely safe set it and forget it. The broad buy strategies will propel the dow upwards because the demand will keep increasing
Posted on 6/23/17 at 6:06 pm to deeprig9
yes
Posted on 6/23/17 at 7:02 pm to deeprig9
I think 27,000-33,000 would be more popular of an opinion in our lifetimes.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 7:12 pm to deeprig9
Yes when AMZN replaces WMT.
Should the burgeoning social media industry be represented somehow?
Should the burgeoning social media industry be represented somehow?
Posted on 6/23/17 at 7:20 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
Yes when AMZN replaces WMT.
Should the burgeoning social media industry be represented somehow?
How much analytics revenue is already represented? I'm too lazy to look it up myself.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 7:20 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
I think 27,000-33,000 would be more popular of an opinion in our lifetimes.
It's gone up over 5,000 points in the last two years, but it's only gonna go up another 5,000-12,000 in the next 50 years?...........good call man
Posted on 6/23/17 at 10:12 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Will we see it in our lifetimes?
Depends on old your are.
Dow 50K will be here in less than 20 years IMO.
It better anyway. That's just over 4% per year.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:10 pm to deeprig9
This country is less likely to exist in 50 years than 50,000 Dow. 50K is possible, though.
Posted on 6/23/17 at 11:21 pm to airfernando
At 8% growth rate (historical average or maybe lower), the DOW will be at 50K in just 9 years. It will be 100K in 20 years.
Posted on 6/24/17 at 11:46 am to RJSambola
quote:
People are being conditioned to believe passive funds are completely safe
it depends what you mean by passive. Do I look at my Roth IRA everyday? No. But I am invested in a fund that has managers that watch it.
Eta: the sad thing is that the reason there is so much money in the market is because the Fed has fricked up by making money so cheap, keeping your money in a bank causes you to lose 2% a year on inflation. 15 years ago I had a CD that made 4%. To get 4% now, you dang near have to invest in junk bonds
This post was edited on 6/24/17 at 11:54 am
Posted on 6/24/17 at 1:54 pm to deeprig9
100000
Posted on 6/24/17 at 4:25 pm to deeprig9
I'm older than most here and even in my lifetime I expect to see Dow 50,000. I also expect that we might see Dow 15,000 (or thereabouts) at some point.
Think of it in percentage terms and not in point terms. That's what seems to mess with people's heads. So what has been the historical annual percentage return on the Dow over time?
Think of it in percentage terms and not in point terms. That's what seems to mess with people's heads. So what has been the historical annual percentage return on the Dow over time?
Posted on 6/24/17 at 11:42 pm to deeprig9
Easily
Posted on 6/25/17 at 1:32 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:I think this is a failure of imagination on the potential downsides. I also expect to see at least 50k, but I also can imagine 10k.
I expect to see Dow 50,000. I also expect that we might see Dow 15,000 (or thereabouts) at some point.
It is similar to the oil price. I keep hearing about today's low price of the upper 40's and potential upsides of 80+. Today's price is probably closer to the mid range than "low".
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