2 year inverted yield curve

It has felt like a recession for 2 years

I've seen several charts lately floating around on twitter that point out the only 3 recessions where the yield curve was inverted this long were 1929, the aforementioned 1974, and then 2007. All were 50+% drops in the markets.

Game of Trades

Let's hope the correlation doesn't stick.

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I’ve never seen anything like this.

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No other president in history has been able to get away with this many executive orders that have completely bypassed Congress and SCOTUS to mask what's really happening. In 2022 Biden methodically raided the SPR on a monthly basis to artificially keep gas at the pump low. He's never attempted to refill that massive non-wartime selloff. In 2022 and now in 2024 he's making rules to forgive billions in student loans circumventing SCOTUS' ruling. But for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction...God help us all when those chickens come home to roost. Could be Carter 2.0.

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Tempted to put all future 403b/401k contributions for my wife and I into money market/cash starting this week with the anticipation of a hard recession similar to 2007-2009. I would not touch all current investments. Reassess 14-18 months out? Wise or foolish?

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Good luck timing it.

Assuming basically the majority of your 401K type investments are just broad index funds and your current age, I see no reason not to just continue like normal. Will be a blip on the radar at the end of the road.

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I'm racking my brains over this. I'm 39. Tempted to put all future 403b/401k contributions for my wife and I into money market/cash starting this week with the anticipation of a hard recession similar to 2007-2009. I would not touch all current investments. Reassess 14-18 months out? Wise or foolish?

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For my 401k, this is The Year of the Money Markets. All of my new allocations have been going into VFVXX or SPRXX. That said, I'm still holding my dividend stocks (since almost all of them reinvest).

I'm risk-averse so while some here were making good bank on the bulls earlier in the year, I was getting ready for what I believe is coming. That said, I'm not entirely convinced we're into the early stages of the shite yet (waiting to see Unemployment moving upward above 4% with momentum).

We already had a technical recession

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To say nothing about the difficulty of market timing

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Do you even #FOMO, bro?

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No other president in history has been able to get away with this many executive orders that have completely bypassed Congress and SCOTUS to mask what's really happening. In 2022 Biden methodically raided the SPR on a monthly basis to artificially keep gas at the pump low. He's never attempted to refill that massive non-wartime selloff. In 2022 and now in 2024 he's making rules to forgive billions in student loans circumventing SCOTUS' ruling. But for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction...God help us all when those chickens come home to roost. Could be Carter 2.0.

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Those are your two best pieces of evidence for why no recession? Keep trying.

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All of my new allocations have been going into VFVXX or SPRXX.

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Why not USFR? It's as much as 75bps higher, depending on the week.

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I'm racking my brains over this. I'm 39. Tempted to put all future 403b/401k contributions for my wife and I into money market/cash starting this week with the anticipation of a hard recession similar to 2007-2009. I would not touch all current investments. Reassess 14-18 months out? Wise or foolish?

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I was 27 when 2008 hit. My 401 cut 50 percent in a few months. I always said that I should have seen it coming. But that’s always easy after you know the result. In reality virtually nobody times it right.

However, as 2008-2012 played out I upped my percentage to the highest I could afford and I bought discounted funds for years.

Also I put 5 percent in a govt bond fund that I used to jump into the market for buying on abnormally large stock falls. I’ve used it once and put a pretty large amount in the market in mid April of the Covid year. I invested in Tesla, Exxon, delta, and carnival. After a year and a piece I sold and put it back in the govt bond fund. I’m ready to pounce again while gaining a small amount of interest with the money that’s in that side fund.