- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Will Kentucky pitch backwards again?
Posted on 6/7/23 at 10:51 am to upgrade
Posted on 6/7/23 at 10:51 am to upgrade
quote:
It’s only a 3 game series if it goes 1-1. 2-0 and it’s over.
WTF difference does that make? Let's say they played the third game regardless of the first two. Then they would lose 1-2 or 0-3. Again, why is that better than 0-2?
The inability of people to understand odds is shocking. Neither of the first two games is more important than the third game, unless you think game one gives you a psychological boost.
2
Posted on 6/7/23 at 10:55 am to Penrod
quote:
he inability of people to understand odds is shocking.
I'm with ya penny. same thought as game 1 vs game 2. they are both worth 1 game. neither is more important.
Any opponent would be smart to maximize their chance to win one of the first 2 and let the chips fall where they may in game 3. just get it to game 3 and anything can happen
Posted on 6/7/23 at 10:56 am to QB
quote:
I would match whatever KY decides to do. If they go with their best, so do we. If they go with their best, we go with Floyd. Don't waste Skenes on their 3rd best pitcher, please.
I gotta disagree. Sending Skenes out against not their best almost guarantees a win. They'd be doing LSU a favor. You take that in a 2/3 scenario.
Kentucky's pitching seems a bit more settled than when LSU last played them. I don't see them turning to a back-of-the-bullpen guy to start a game this weekend. Also, Kentucky was trying to steal one game that weekend after getting off to such a hot start in conference play.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:02 am to CottonWasKing
quote:
You couldn’t be more wrong.
Kentucky’s strategy in the regular season was to try to steal one. Two would be great but they really wanted one.
One win does nothing for them in the supers.
Okay, logic time!
Kentucky's reasoning would be that sure, they are spotting LSU a win, but they would be spotting LSU a win if they started their ace, too. What are the odds of Kentucky walking away with a win against Skenes if they start their best? What are the odds if they pitch off? About the same, right?
But if they pitch off, they now have their best to go against Floyd and their second best to go against whatever we have for game 3.
And don't tell me there might not be a game three, because that means their ace lost to Floyd. That's certainly possible, but your solution to that would be pitch the same ace, who lost to Floyd, against Skenes. Then pitch the number two against Floyd to see if he can do what your ace couldn't. Can't you see that your odds would be lower?
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:07 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Skenes has two losses this year, so hes not unbearable. They don't think they can outpitch Skenes. They are going to try to keep it close. If their starters can hold LSU to 4 or 5 runs and they can manufacture 2 or 3 themselves, they can get to the bullpen in the 7th or 8th inning and who knows what happens then.
That's a legit strategy, and they probably will try that, but pitching off against Skenes is a legit strategy also, and it might give them the best odds of winning two.
I hope they pitch Zach against Skenes, because I think they would waste him.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:08 am to Howyouluhdat
quote:
Two retards don’t make a right
Now, that's funny!
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:34 am to Penrod
quote:
I hope they pitch Zach against Skenes, because I think they would waste him.
I guarantee LSU would prefer Kentucky throw their ace against Skenes.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:36 am to skullhawk
quote:
I gotta disagree. Sending Skenes out against not their best almost guarantees a win. They'd be doing LSU a favor. You take that in a 2/3 scenario.
Sending Skenes out period is about as close to a sure thing that there is in college baseball. Skenes can only get us half way there. Someone(s) have to get us the 2nd one.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:41 am to Penrod
quote:
Do you think it’s any different than the regular season? It’s not.
It's obviously different.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:53 am to STEVED00
quote:
Sending Skenes out period is about as close to a sure thing that there is in college baseball.
Some notable Skenes starts that I would say contradict your statement:
- Arkansas beat LSU twice
- South Carolina beat LSU
- TN tied 2-2 when he left the game
- Bama game LSU wins by 2
- Auburn game LSU wins 3-0 but only manages 5 hits
- UGA game tied 2-2 when Skenes leaves the game
If the offense can stay hot then no one is beating LSU with Skenes pitching but they've shown they can be slowed down enough to put the game in doubt.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 11:58 am to Penrod
quote:
WTF difference does that make? Let's say they played the third game regardless of the first two. Then they would lose 1-2 or 0-3. Again, why is that better than 0-2?
The inability of people to understand odds is shocking. Neither of the first two games is more important than the third game, unless you think game one gives you a psychological boost.
The point is that in the regular season, winning 1 of 3 has value...especially on the road, and thus justifies the move.
There's no value in winning 1 game in the supers.
Any decision should be made based on the likelihood of winning 2. Those that call pitching off dumb, have that opinion because they think the odds of winning 2 after losing the first are low. Certainly floyd and/or Hurd are capable of winning a game even against the KY #1 and #2.
Those that have the opinion that pitching of is smart have that opinion because they think the likelihood of beating Skenes is low anyway, so having a pitching advantage in games 2 of 3 outweighs the chances of beating Skenes with your #1. Plus, you always have the chance that Skenes has an off day and/or the guy you throw pitches over his head.
Of course, maybe the max risk to Kentucky would be LSU wins game 1, pitches off in game 2 (Cooper until or unless it gets a lead in game 2), and stacks its staff for Sunday. I don't think any of that will happen.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 1:17 pm to skullhawk
Putting So Car on there after the shite they pulled is a stretch
This post was edited on 6/7/23 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 6/7/23 at 1:24 pm to skullhawk
quote:
If the offense can stay hot then no one is beating LSU with Skenes pitching but they've shown they can be slowed down enough to put the game in doubt.
Agreed. They aren't going to outpitch Skenes. As I have said UK can score ore a run or two with no hits. They might throw a bunch of LH bullpen junk ball specialist at LSU when Skenes pitches. They just want to keep it close and steal it in the late innings.
Posted on 6/7/23 at 1:55 pm to Jax-Tiger
quote:
They might throw a bunch of LH bullpen
Thought it would be Bosma but he hasnt pitched since 5/13
Page 5 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News