re: Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?

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I understand alot

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I understand you like down votes.

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I'm also not claiming to be a baseball expert, I'm most definitely not.

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Maybe JJ is an expert and has already considered this scenario?

I think the only scenario I would see JJ not starting gage or luke would be seeing LSU get out to massive lead super early (like 10 runs in the first two innings).

If I was Jay I would gamble and then sit Jump or Luke for a potential comeback on Monday and use johnny wholestaff to get you through the game.

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What is the ERA on Sunday in the SEC? UNC is going to be much better than the average SEC team.

Is that a winning strategy?

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UNC doesn't exactly have a great 3rd starter either.

If LSU goes 2-0 the next time they would face UNC would be in UNC's 4th game of the regional and (likely) UNC's second game of the DAY since the winner of the first game on Sunday would turn around and play the team that went 2-0 on Friday/Saturday.

UNC has two guys who started all 10 weekends of ACC play. After that, they have two guys who started 5 games each in conference play. One has an ERA of 5.18 in those games. The other has an ERA of 9.00. And considering LSU would be seeing UNC's 4th starter in a scenario where UNC would have to beat LSU twice, I'd say even LSU's inconsistent bullpen would have the advantage in that situation.

In your scenario of making Friday a "bullpen" game you have made that game basically a must win. A "must win" with an inconsistent bullpen. Because if you don't LSU would then face a scenario where they have to win 4 games in 3 days. And they would have to do it with a bullpen that was likely taxed in Game 1 and maybe game 2. Which means that even if you were somehow able to save Jump and Holman for games 3 and 4 , you STILL have to win another game without those two plus a depleted bullpen against a much fresher UNC staff.

I suggested this several times this week and got overwhelmingly downvoted just like you are getting. There was a post today saying that Skip Bertman was on the radio agreeing with us.

All of these people wanted to fire Jay for starting Skenes against Tulane last year. The argument is that Wofford is a way better team than Tulane. I just don't know that I even agree with that, stats aside. Personally, I felt like Skenes neded to go against Tulane last year. Put the hot, in-state team to rest. Oregon St was not a dangerous 2, despite our pitching questions after Skenes. They had major pitching issues. We could just out hit Oregon St anyway. UNC is not as flawed. They're a 1 seed.

I'll go back to what I said last year: No decision is wrong if it works. We started Skenes in game 1 and it worked so it was the right decision. Whoever starts game 1 against Wofford will be the right decision if we advance to supers.

Simple answer is "Failure" is not an option for game 1. Therefore you start the guy who gives you your best chance to win, and potentially saves the entire rest of the staff by going longer into the game.
Everyone knows in this Regional format, you MUST win game 1 period!

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Our pitching held a better Tennessee offense to 4 runs the other day. I think they could hold their own against UNC.

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But is Tennessee a better offense? UNC went 9-1 in Game 3s in conference averaging 11.2 R/G. Tennessee went 8-2 and averaged 9.1 R/G. Underneath the averages, Tennessee had Sunday games scoring 0, 3, 4 and 6. UNC had games of 3 and 6, but the other 8 were 9+.

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Last year the conversation to hold Skenes was reasonable given the variables in play. The conversation to do the same thing this year is ridiculous.

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There are variables in play other than the strength of the Game 1 opponent. There’s no question that pitching off against Wofford is more of a risk than pitching off against Tulane last year. That’s only one part of the equation. The other part is the potential Game 3 matchup. Last year, LSU was at home playing against a 2-seed whose pitching staff was decimated by injuries and was piecing things together. UNC has lost starters as well, but they have the guys they have started all conference season and their key relievers. LSU also had one of the top offenses in the country facing a good, but not great Oregon St offense. This year UNC is the home team with one of the top offenses on the country facing a good, but not great LSU offense. The only advantage LSU has are their top 2 starters. It’s not ridiculous to consider gambling against Wofford to keep that advantage in place vs UNC. Of course it’s a giant risk, but the circumstances may require it.