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Started By
Message
What’s your $$$ confidence in -2.5??
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:25 pm
The line for Florida State game is LSU -2.5 (for you nerds that means that LSU needs to win by 3 points)
So the question is….. You have a season long bankroll for betting and let’s call it $10,000 (hypothetical number to make it interesting)
Gun to your head tonight
How much are you risking on LSU -2.5?
I have bet on college football for the last 20 years and this game has me super confused to the point I might not touch it.
Gun to my head I’m wagering $1,000 on LSU covering. I’m willing to stake 10% of my yearly roll on it. I feel like that makes me confident but not enough to stake more
I know i know…. Degenerate and never bet your own team…. But I know I am speaking to a lot of fans out there who get what I am saying
So the question is….. You have a season long bankroll for betting and let’s call it $10,000 (hypothetical number to make it interesting)
Gun to your head tonight
How much are you risking on LSU -2.5?
I have bet on college football for the last 20 years and this game has me super confused to the point I might not touch it.
Gun to my head I’m wagering $1,000 on LSU covering. I’m willing to stake 10% of my yearly roll on it. I feel like that makes me confident but not enough to stake more
I know i know…. Degenerate and never bet your own team…. But I know I am speaking to a lot of fans out there who get what I am saying
33
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:27 pm to AZTiger7072
quote:
I’m willing to stake 10% of my yearly roll on it.
Rule #1 of sports betting is to remain disciplined with your bank roll. 1-2% is generally advised on each bet regardless of confidence.
With that said, I’m more confident this year than I am last year with what we have returning and another offseason under Kelly. Does that mean I’d go crazy and bet based on that confidence?
No. We should win, but I’m not getting out of smart betting on it. It’s sports, anything can happen - like Nabers muffing two punts and then becoming one of the best in CFB. Just shouldn’t return punts.
This post was edited on 8/16/23 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:28 pm to AZTiger7072
0 dollars. I’d find a game I like better. Too many unknowns in our secondary at this point. I do think the public will be in Florida state though with the amount of hype they have coming into the season.
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:34 pm to AZTiger7072
quote:
How much are you risking on LSU -2.5?
ZERO
i am playing moneyline -140. it may change
have not bet yet. i am watching and will wait closer to gametime to make sure we are injury free.
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:36 pm to AZTiger7072
Not touching that line. Rather wait for a late play.
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:42 pm to Leon Spinks
I just can’t see Florida st beating us for a second straight time
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:43 pm to AZTiger7072
quote:
Gun to your head tonight
How much are you risking on LSU -2.5?
If I see more posts like this I might just pull the trigger
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:45 pm to AZTiger7072
It’s not gambling when you know you’re gonna win
Posted on 8/16/23 at 10:50 pm to tigerfan84
These responses of “no bet”…..
Can’t do that. Gun to your head.
What are you taking? Gotta take one and ML isn’t an option
Can’t do that. Gun to your head.
What are you taking? Gotta take one and ML isn’t an option
Posted on 8/16/23 at 11:06 pm to AZTiger7072
Not high
Posted on 8/16/23 at 11:13 pm to Wrucker16
Confidence is lower than I expected thus far lol.
I actually like the -2.5. I predict we win and if we win I expect it to be by at least 3 points.
That’s my logic
I actually like the -2.5. I predict we win and if we win I expect it to be by at least 3 points.
That’s my logic
Posted on 8/17/23 at 12:48 am to AZTiger7072
Rules number 1 and 2. Never bet on your own team and never bet on the biggest match ups. The more obscure the game is, the better.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 1:20 am to NOLA1128
quote:
Rule #1 of sports betting is to remain disciplined with your bank roll. 1-2% is generally advised on each bet regardless of confidence.
Bingo! Bob Martin, Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, Lem Banker, Chip Reese, etc..all would say much the same.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 1:55 am to AZTiger7072
Not gonna lie, I love our number at -2.5 and will be betting pretty big on it. I'll probably bet the spread and moneyline, just incase it comes down to a 1-2 point win. But I think we win by 7-10, so im going big. I hope the public like the FL St side, if the ML for LSU gets closer to -125 then I'll just bet the ML.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 6:43 am to AZTiger7072
this isn't a game you bet on
we'll win by 1
we'll win by 1
Posted on 8/17/23 at 6:53 am to AZTiger7072
I put 100 on lsu on the moneyline last year and lost. This year I put 60 on the same. Secondary has me concerned.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 6:55 am to AZTiger7072
Just take the moneyline. Why gamble with a 2 point spread ?
Posted on 8/17/23 at 7:19 am to TigersJump
quote:I know a guy in Massachusetts who makes 2 mil a year betting college football. He only bets on games like "OSU vs Dayton or Georgia vs Ball St". His formula works. 90% of his bets are during the first month of the season.
The more obscure the game is, the better.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 7:28 am to AZTiger7072
Any sure things bets on LSU week one are biased positive offseason syndrome fans. You want to believe it so bad that you forget the A&M game last year and just assume we are so much better. It’s still the first game of the season and until we show we are better in certain areas I wouldn’t bet on it. FSU is better too.
Posted on 8/17/23 at 7:34 am to AZTiger7072
The sharps will tell you it doesn’t matter how confident you are, never bet more than 5% of your BR on any single bet, and really only that much if you know you have a real edge.
In this case, you don’t. That number (-2.5) is pretty firm by now and has been looked at by a lot of really smart people. Barring some new information, it’s a pretty good line. Sharps typically wager 1-3% based on either a fixed unit size or something else (maybe Kelly criterion?).
I’d recommend a 2% wager of $200 if you have a 10k BR.
In this case, you don’t. That number (-2.5) is pretty firm by now and has been looked at by a lot of really smart people. Barring some new information, it’s a pretty good line. Sharps typically wager 1-3% based on either a fixed unit size or something else (maybe Kelly criterion?).
I’d recommend a 2% wager of $200 if you have a 10k BR.
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