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re: What are some takes on why the spread opened at LSU by 9 and is now LSU by 1.5?

Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:24 pm to
Posted by LSUBB6366
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2023
1736 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:24 pm to
it opened at 4 1/2 NOT 9
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
2980 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:25 pm to
Vegas is looking at the USC, USCe and OM games.
USC was a loss and the margin of victory for the other two games were razor thin. Arkansas is a tough team and a tough environment. I still think we should cover a FG
Posted by misey94
Hernando, MS
Member since Jan 2007
27554 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

Arkansas was expected to be a 3 or 4 win team preseason and has performed much better. They could easily be undefeated.


They did against UT and maybe A&M, but they also absolutely sucked vs a bad Okie Light team and a UAB team that has flat-out quit on their coach and just got housed bg Army.

Arkansas isn’t bad, but they also don’t have the top-end talent on offense that we do and they are even more up and down. It’s also unlikely that Green will be 100%, or that they will be able to avoid him taking lots of hits and have a chance to win. He has to run and they’ve given up the 4th most sacks in the SEC. I’ll be surprised if their backup doesn’t have to take snaps at some point.
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
5544 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:33 pm to
When did it open at 9? Before the season started? Arkansas is much better than expected.

The line opened this week at -4.
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
5544 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

Tells me Vegas expects us to lose


LMAO. You can't get anymore stupid than this.

The line moved because bettors expect it to be closer. If the money was going on LSU, the line would be moving in the other direction. You don't understand betting lines at all do you?
Posted by AlwysATgr
Member since Apr 2008
18997 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:38 pm to
Not a better but the factors that may be in play:
a) Arky has played better than expected.
b) We're coming off an emotional, home win. Now having to go on the road. Always a good formula for a letdown.
c) Caden's uncertain status and WR injuries.
Posted by Deep Fried Gravy
Member since Oct 2023
161 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

There QB is gonna play


*The’re
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36803 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

Tells me Vegas expects us to lose
Tells me whatever education you got in life failed you.
Posted by JimTiger72
Member since Jun 2023
11365 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

opened at LSU by 9


You’re talking about months ago.

I think Arkansas was picked to win 4 games, they’re obviously better than expected

It was +9.5 on draftkings in July.
+4.5 on October 11.
+2.0 currently
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 2:53 pm
Posted by Draco Malfoy
Member since Mar 2024
1685 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

Tells me whatever education you got in life failed you.


More bets are on Arkansas than LSU yet the spread keeps getting worse for us
Posted by extremelsu
Member since Aug 2013
4841 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:58 pm to
The public is betting arkansas, not sure what the sharps are betting
Posted by GeauxtigersMs36
The coast
Member since Jan 2018
11301 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:00 pm to
I do that with bama. Never lsu. Money doesn’t not replace the satisfaction of winning.
Posted by DCtiger1
Member since Jul 2009
10154 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:39 pm to
Yea and you said Durham was out for the Ole miss game. How you haven’t been banned is beyond comprehension
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
5544 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

More bets are on Arkansas than LSU yet the spread keeps getting worse for us


LMAO....you are doubling down on stupidity.

If more money is going on Arkansas, which way did you expect the line to go? As more money is put on Arkansas, the points LSU is favored by will drop? It isn't that hard to understand. Do you think if all the money is going on Arkansas, that they are going to favor LSU even more, thus getting more money on Arkansas? LOL You obviously know nothing about betting, which isn't a bad thing, but I wouldn't be commenting about it if I were you.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
13263 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:47 pm to
Vegas puts themselves in the middle of the money. So more b
Money was moving to Arkansas at plus 9. So at plus 1.5 the mines has balanced on both sides.
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
31203 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:47 pm to
Arkansas has performed better than expected.
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
68670 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

Tells me Vegas expects us to lose


Posted by Chinese Bandit Boy
Member since Jun 2021
712 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Vegas puts themselves in the middle of the money.


Bingo!
Posted by gohogs141
Fayetteville
Member since Jun 2011
7595 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

They did against UT and maybe A&M, but they also absolutely sucked vs a bad Okie Light team


They still put up nearly 700 yards of offense, just couldn’t get out of their own way. Muffed a punt, dropped a handoff, missed FGs.

Arkansas can move the ball on a lot of teams like they did against Tennessee if they just eliminate stupid mistakes.
Posted by Billy Johnson
Member since Oct 2024
432 posts
Posted on 10/17/24 at 4:56 pm to
I wouldn’t be shocked if this team drops this game. We were down 17-0 to a 3-3 South Carolina team and barely beat them on a missed field goal.
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