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TOP and defense: Does Speed Kill?
Posted on 12/9/18 at 10:28 am
Posted on 12/9/18 at 10:28 am
Lots of y’all about Fast passed offenses and how they would kill our Defense. But do they? Is there a direct correlation between TOP and defensive quality?
It’s a yes and no.
TOP and ball control can be used to limit the number of possessions you the opposing team and this limit their scoring potential.
Army is very good at this. They are 69th is Opp YPP. But top 15 in OPp YPG and PPG.
#1 in TOP with an insane average of 38:50 minutes a game.
So a middling Defense can be a top scoring defense if you just run clock and drag out every possession.
But if your defense sucks it may not work.
Last year Arkansas was 2nd in TOP and 115th in scoring Defense.
Now the other way is also probably true.
If you go fast opposing teams will have way more opportunities to score on you, but will your defense suck? Not ifnits actually a good defense.
Alabama is currently 4th in scoring defense, 2nd in scoring offense and 70th in TOP.
Clemson is 2nd in scoring defense 5th in scoring offense and ... wait for it...
99th in TOP
So in conclusion.
TOP can help mask an average defense but icant polish a turd, and ultimately you are limiting the # of possession you have too.
It’s a yes and no.
TOP and ball control can be used to limit the number of possessions you the opposing team and this limit their scoring potential.
Army is very good at this. They are 69th is Opp YPP. But top 15 in OPp YPG and PPG.
#1 in TOP with an insane average of 38:50 minutes a game.
So a middling Defense can be a top scoring defense if you just run clock and drag out every possession.
But if your defense sucks it may not work.
Last year Arkansas was 2nd in TOP and 115th in scoring Defense.
Now the other way is also probably true.
If you go fast opposing teams will have way more opportunities to score on you, but will your defense suck? Not ifnits actually a good defense.
Alabama is currently 4th in scoring defense, 2nd in scoring offense and 70th in TOP.
Clemson is 2nd in scoring defense 5th in scoring offense and ... wait for it...
99th in TOP
So in conclusion.
TOP can help mask an average defense but icant polish a turd, and ultimately you are limiting the # of possession you have too.
4
Posted on 12/9/18 at 10:31 am to SammyTiger
How about mirror some programs that can speed you up and slow you down controlling the game at their pace and not yours.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 10:33 am to Tiger1988
Alabama does this, but really I think Their defense forcing a lot of 3 and Outs helps their TOP as much as their offense slowing down.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 11:26 am to SammyTiger
quote:
Alabama is currently 4th in scoring defense, 2nd in scoring offense and 70th in TOP.
Clemson is 2nd in scoring defense 5th in scoring offense and ... wait for it...
99th in TOP
So if you are Alabama or Clemson you can do what you want. For the rest of us it behooves us to keep the frickin ball out of their hands because if we dont the MF's gonna score a 100...
So the question is if we develop a gatling gun offense like OK will we keep our defensive capabilities? To do that we will have to start reeling in the #1-3 recruiitng classes for the next 4 yrs because that is what Bama and Clemson have been doing.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 12:10 pm to GetmorewithLes
Go back and look at the recruiting rankings
Posted on 12/9/18 at 1:06 pm to SammyTiger
If you go 3-out you use about 2:10 if you are trying hard to use clock. On average it's probably closer to 1:30. You only get about 12 or 13 possessions a game. 3-Outs using max time are good for only about 26 min a game.
First downs use clock. And there is not a rule, on laminated sheets or in clay tablets that says just because you hurry to the line does not mean you have to snap it. HUNH does NOT NECESSARILY mean more plays.
There are many other factors that play into ToP, at top of list is your defense... not your offesnse.
Our longest ToP games this year were our highest scoring. Why? Because first downs leads to more plays, which leads to more clock, and (with a FG kicker) points.
Comparing the best outcomes (more points) to the worst risk (giving your opponent more time) I'd take those points any day when you have a stout defense, which we do.
Compare our ToP in 3-outs vs. all other drives, even 4 or 5 play ones, and the discrepency is huge. First downs = clock. Just that 1 first down is good for 1:30, the same as the previous 3 plays. You double your ToP with a 1st down; and it steps up from there. Oh, and there's that thing about points too. And resting your good but shallow D.
First downs use clock. And there is not a rule, on laminated sheets or in clay tablets that says just because you hurry to the line does not mean you have to snap it. HUNH does NOT NECESSARILY mean more plays.
There are many other factors that play into ToP, at top of list is your defense... not your offesnse.
Our longest ToP games this year were our highest scoring. Why? Because first downs leads to more plays, which leads to more clock, and (with a FG kicker) points.
Comparing the best outcomes (more points) to the worst risk (giving your opponent more time) I'd take those points any day when you have a stout defense, which we do.
Compare our ToP in 3-outs vs. all other drives, even 4 or 5 play ones, and the discrepency is huge. First downs = clock. Just that 1 first down is good for 1:30, the same as the previous 3 plays. You double your ToP with a 1st down; and it steps up from there. Oh, and there's that thing about points too. And resting your good but shallow D.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 1:54 pm to I20goon
Nationally, LSU was 55th in total first downs with 263. LSU was 8th in the SEC. Missouri, Georgia, A&M and Alabama were in the top 20 with Georgia, A&M and Alabama in the top-10, nationally.
Nationally, LSU was 67th in 3rd down conversions. LSU was 9th in the SEC. Georgia and Alabama were in the top 20 with Alabama in the top 10.
3rd down conversion % is a huge statistic. IMO, LSU's inability to develop a passing game is a huge component of the 3rd down woes. For the record... LSU was 71st in 3rd down conversion % in 2009. Yikes.
National stats: LINK
SEC stats: LINK
*ETA -- For the "up-tempo is garbage" crowd... I'm cool with a TOP offense, as long as the offense can convert on 3rd down. 2011 is an example of that.
Nationally, LSU was 67th in 3rd down conversions. LSU was 9th in the SEC. Georgia and Alabama were in the top 20 with Alabama in the top 10.
3rd down conversion % is a huge statistic. IMO, LSU's inability to develop a passing game is a huge component of the 3rd down woes. For the record... LSU was 71st in 3rd down conversion % in 2009. Yikes.
National stats: LINK
SEC stats: LINK
*ETA -- For the "up-tempo is garbage" crowd... I'm cool with a TOP offense, as long as the offense can convert on 3rd down. 2011 is an example of that.
This post was edited on 12/9/18 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 12/9/18 at 2:06 pm to RuLSU
As a follow-up:
I've often said I don't blame O for going back to Ensminger, but I'll blame him if he doesn't make substantial changes for 2019.
In 2016, Ensminger's offense converted 3rd down 46% of the time. I know saying 'over the course of the season...' is nonsense, but, at that rate, LSU would have ended up in the top 20 for a critically important offensive statistic.
I think letting Canada go was a huge mistake. Replacing him with Ensminger was unexciting but reasonable, at the time. Not making changes when this offense demonstrated flaws is utter foolishness.
I've often said I don't blame O for going back to Ensminger, but I'll blame him if he doesn't make substantial changes for 2019.
In 2016, Ensminger's offense converted 3rd down 46% of the time. I know saying 'over the course of the season...' is nonsense, but, at that rate, LSU would have ended up in the top 20 for a critically important offensive statistic.
I think letting Canada go was a huge mistake. Replacing him with Ensminger was unexciting but reasonable, at the time. Not making changes when this offense demonstrated flaws is utter foolishness.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 3:28 pm to SammyTiger
If you score TD's...then who cares. However, if you come up short occasionally, then a great defense with a lot of depth surely helps (see Alabama).
Posted on 12/9/18 at 3:45 pm to GetmorewithLes
Clemson has had the #2 class more than LSU the last 10 years?
2017 16th
2016 11th. (LSU was #2)
2015 9th (LSU was #5)
2014 16th (LSU was 2)
2013 15th ( LSU was #6)
2012 20th
LSU has recruited better than Clemson in every single season.
WTF do fans throw out BS about recruiting? Hardly any team out there has been near Bama besides LSU the last decade.
2017 16th
2016 11th. (LSU was #2)
2015 9th (LSU was #5)
2014 16th (LSU was 2)
2013 15th ( LSU was #6)
2012 20th
LSU has recruited better than Clemson in every single season.
WTF do fans throw out BS about recruiting? Hardly any team out there has been near Bama besides LSU the last decade.
Posted on 12/9/18 at 5:50 pm to Catman88
quote:
WTF do fans throw out BS about recruiting? Hardly any team out there has been near Bama besides LSU the last decade.
It's an excuse by people who want to support the head coach or don't follow football very closely.
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