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re: To defer or not to defer? LSU Coin Toss Results (Kelly Era)
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:33 pm to CubsFanBudMan
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:33 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
Win or lose the coin toss should be ignored. What's the data for scoring percentage for both teams' first drive of each half. If I did the math correctly, LSU has a combined, ignoring who won the toss, .818 winning percentage when going on defense to start the game and .727 when going on offense to start the game.
you really need to take FCS and Group 5 teams out of the equation though.
Does it really matter who got ball first against Grambling, Southern, So Alabama, New Mexico, etc.?
Against just Power 5 Opponents:
LSU is 13-4 (.765) when receiving 1st half kickoff
LSU is 5-2 (.714) when receiving 2nd half kickoff
1
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:33 pm to TFS4E
Very interesting. These are very interesting stats.
Basically we are better when we lose the toss but pretty even if win and choose one of two outcomes.
I think you would always still have the decision in your hands.
I see a concept though that if your defense is your weakest group having them come straight out after half helps.
Plus could get the other team behind after the first drive and that only helps the defense. If the offense does not score then you should at least have good field position for the defense to start off with at the beginning of the game.
Basically we are better when we lose the toss but pretty even if win and choose one of two outcomes.
I think you would always still have the decision in your hands.
I see a concept though that if your defense is your weakest group having them come straight out after half helps.
Plus could get the other team behind after the first drive and that only helps the defense. If the offense does not score then you should at least have good field position for the defense to start off with at the beginning of the game.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:35 pm to TFS4E
Great stuff. I wonder what the college football-wide data would indicate when looking at games with a 5 point or less spread, or however you would categorize the "competitive games"?
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:36 pm to TFS4E
I like deferring because of how amped up the home crowds always are at the beginning of a game.
If we're home, then you let the Tiger Stadium crowd noise rattle the QB early and hope to get a quick 3 and out.
If you're on the road then you have their offense going out first and if your defense can do something then they might not be quite as loud when you get the ball back.
That along with crowd noise being quieter at the start of the 3rd quarter because of people still in line at the concession stands and restrooms (or left the game already).
If we're home, then you let the Tiger Stadium crowd noise rattle the QB early and hope to get a quick 3 and out.
If you're on the road then you have their offense going out first and if your defense can do something then they might not be quite as loud when you get the ball back.
That along with crowd noise being quieter at the start of the 3rd quarter because of people still in line at the concession stands and restrooms (or left the game already).
Posted on 10/16/24 at 3:44 pm to Tdubs7
quote:
Great stuff. I wonder what the college football-wide data would indicate when looking at games with a 5 point or less spread, or however you would categorize the "competitive games"?
I just checked the PDF and the NCAA (unsurprisingly) does not include a spread in their official write-up of the game. I would have to find other sources to pull that data.
Would be interesting to see, though.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:02 pm to Portcityblues
quote:
judging from that 15-2 record when losing the toss, maybe we just need to try and lose the toss every game?
"LSU call it in the air"
Lsu: "scissors"
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:06 pm to TFS4E
In reality, it seems that given a certain amount of expected variability due to unknowns relative to the individual teams' matchups (strengths vs weaknesses), it seems like the numbers say it is practically a wash.
I still prefer to defer but that's just me.
I still prefer to defer but that's just me.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:07 pm to TFS4E
I actually started to do this same post a few weeks ago and lost interest halfway through . Bravo sir 
Still on #TeamDefer 4 lyfe tho
Still on #TeamDefer 4 lyfe tho
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:12 pm to TFS4E
quote:
I just checked the PDF and the NCAA (unsurprisingly) does not include a spread in their official write-up of the game. I would have to find other sources to pull that data.
it's really difficult to find info like this on college games without having to use multiple sites and cross reference games.
here is an article about NFL using only playoff games (narrows it down to at least roughly equivalent teams) from 2002-2019
Coin Toss study
and a screen shot of the most relevant stat in football (winning %)
Again, receive has a higher winning % than deferring.
tRant keeps calling Kelly stubborn for not deferring.
when in reality, data shows that tRant is stubborn for not accepting that teams that get the ball first in a game win more often than teams that get it in the 2nd half.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:17 pm to TFS4E
That’s some solid number crunchin. Nice work
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:21 pm to CBandits82
May I make one unimportant point?
When you elect to take the ball first, the other team’s defense has to clock in first. If you go perform a 10 play, 7 minute opening drive, our offense is already giving our defense a 7 minute head start for the rest of the game.
Does this register in any way, as an advantage?
I’m not sure.
When you elect to take the ball first, the other team’s defense has to clock in first. If you go perform a 10 play, 7 minute opening drive, our offense is already giving our defense a 7 minute head start for the rest of the game.
Does this register in any way, as an advantage?
I’m not sure.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 4:25 pm to TFS4E
At home for a big game like last week, should always defer if you win the toss. Let the amped crowd help defense get a 3 and out. Cupcake doesn’t matter so much
Posted on 10/16/24 at 5:00 pm to TFS4E
I was also curious what the data showed for receiving the first half kick and then subsequently having the ball last in the 4th quarter.
There were 22 games where LSU received the opening kickoff. It has happened about 45% (10 of 22) of the time.
I added the "Last Pos." column to show my work there and notes about whether the team subsequently kneeled in the truly "last" possession. I wanted to stay consistent with my definition of possession aka. a team trying to do something not just kneeling.
There were 22 games where LSU received the opening kickoff. It has happened about 45% (10 of 22) of the time.
I added the "Last Pos." column to show my work there and notes about whether the team subsequently kneeled in the truly "last" possession. I wanted to stay consistent with my definition of possession aka. a team trying to do something not just kneeling.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 5:28 pm to TFS4E
My thought was that we would need many more, thousands or at least hundreds, data points. One way to narrow it which of course limits data would be to look at all top 5 matchups the last 20ish years. I am guessing that the outcome would be random as we understand that to be. If a strong correlation e.g. >.7 were found that would be interesting.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 5:48 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
you really need to take FCS and Group 5 teams out of the equation though.
Does it really matter who got ball first against Grambling, Southern, So Alabama, New Mexico, etc.?
Against just Power 5 Opponents:
LSU is 13-4 (.765) when receiving 1st half kickoff
LSU is 5-2 (.714) when receiving 2nd half kickoff
I agree, and feel W/L should have less impact on the decision than drive 1 outcomes for both teams in both halfs. I'm curious enough to try to find time to do an evaluation of combined average points scored on first drives of both halfs when kicking to start vs receiving to start. That might eliminate the bias of opponent.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 6:34 pm to dstone12
quote:
When you elect to take the ball first, the other team’s defense has to clock in first. If you go perform a 10 play, 7 minute opening drive, our offense is already giving our defense a 7 minute head start for the rest of the game.
Would you rather your defense rest for 7 minutes prior to playing a single down, or rest after at best causing a 3 and out, at worst giving up a 7 minute drive to the other team? Why do you need to rest before playing a down. In contrast, if you receive the 2nd half kickoff, you possible extend your defense's rest from a 20 minute half time break to 20 minutes plus the 7 minute drive.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 6:37 pm to LSUStar
quote:
My thought was that we would need many more, thousands or at least hundreds, data points. One way to narrow it which of course limits data would be to look at all top 5 matchups the last 20ish years. I am guessing that the outcome would be random as we understand that to be. If a strong correlation e.g. >.7 were found that would be interesting.
Ah, I see. While I am really curious to see how this plays out, I think I would need LSU football to hire me first.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 6:55 pm to TFS4E
I think the choice to defer or receive the first kickoff should be based on the effectiveness of your defense. LSU has shown to have a much better defense this year, therefore, deferring should be the choice 99% of the time. If your defense is the weak link, then maybe receiving first has merit.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 7:11 pm to Scoob
Always defer. You have the chance to score on subsequent possessions.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 7:19 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
W/L should have less impact on the decision
W/L is the only stat that matters.
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