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Message
re: This injury report has to be real
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:37 pm to Veritas
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:37 pm to Veritas
quote:
They move off of % of money.
No they don't. They move off of sharp money, that's it. Vegas does not make money following the whims of the public opinion. You can listen to any sportsbook trader talk about this. You can go on Adam Burns x page (works for BetOnline), he talks about it all the time. Unless it a super high volume game like Sunday Night Football or a playoff NFL game, they do not touch their numbers because the public might be favoring one side.
Also, BookMaker.eu a reputable offshore book that has much sharper lines than Draftkings has LSU -2.5, so the line has barely moved.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:40 pm to RB10
No QB
Several key starters out.
Too much to expect an injury free season…
Several key starters out.
Too much to expect an injury free season…
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:41 pm to BigSlick
quote:
No matter how often this is explained, they still don't get it
Hate to be that guy but ACTUALLY money was still pouring in on LSU at -3 and it didnt keep moving…
Books do not always react to public money, there’s some nuance to it.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:42 pm to PUB
quote:
No QB
Several key starters out.
Bad timing for us. Injury bug seems to hit us hard every year.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:43 pm to ipodking
As always, here's your dv.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:44 pm to HoneyDuece
quote:
Vegas does not make money following the whims of the public opinion.
You are half right and half wrong. They undoubtedly move the line with public opinion (just not 100% of the time). Either way, a better way to check the “true odds” of a game are the peer to peer platforms like novig. You aren’t betting against the house so sharp money isn’t limited
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:45 pm to Ebridg3
I hate people like you. Saban called it catastrophic syndrome. LSU fans are inherently born with this condition. Even after 3 national championships playing for a 4th some still think everyday the world is ending and lsu will never play football again. God is hate to live your life. Always thinking the absolute worst outcome possible immediately in every facet of life.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:46 pm to FireGoodell
quote:
Vegas wouldn’t change the line if was just Lane playing mind games
It’s very funny how much y’all build up Vegas as this all knowing entity that is never wrong
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:46 pm to Ebridg3
Wright?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:48 pm to Ebridg3
No I will not sell you my tickets. I will be there watching Mr Leavitt score 6 TDs.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:49 pm to BadatBourre
quote:
We can win this game with our backup QB. We cant win this game if we cant stop Chamblis.
Are you completely retarded
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:53 pm to DBG
Draft Kings line went from -3 to -2.5
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:53 pm to wildtigercat93
quote:
It’s very funny how much y’all build up Vegas as this all knowing entity that is never wrong
What do you mean by “wrong”.
They aren’t choosing a side, they are just in the business of pricing risk (and are pretty damn good at it). Material public information is disseminated through Vegas odds the same way it is disseminated through the stock market. It’s neither right nor wrong, just probabilities based on all available information
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:54 pm to optout2020
quote:DK went from -3 to -1.5 to -2.5 (current) in a matter of ~40 minutes.
Draft Kings line went from -3 to -2.5
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:56 pm to Ebridg3
He should start Clark and let him get a qb run 1st play. And then put Sam in for the rest.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:58 pm to Ebridg3
quote:
Less lsu fans
Fewer
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:59 pm to Ebridg3
quote:
Because its not. I run models that are not based on what Vegas says at all, and 90% of my predicted spreads and totals are very, very close to Vegas.
Of course they are close. Everyone knows what teams are better than others, and anyone can give or take a few points based on home field, etc. The point is that “Vegas” makes initial estimates, then the betting public moves the line. The “Vegas” initial guesses are close to where the public eventually moves the lines, so why shouldn’t yours be?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:59 pm to TigahsOnTop
quote:
What do you mean by “wrong
“Oh Vegas would never do this if it was fake” as if they are the eye of Sauron that only sets lines based on their predicted winner from the available information.
quote:
They aren’t choosing a side, they are just in the business of pricing risk (and are pretty damn good at it). Material public information is disseminated through Vegas odds the same way it is disseminated through the stock market. It’s neither right nor wrong, just probabilities based on all available information
Yeah I know that, that’s why it’s silly to pretend like their odds changing has any indication as to the validity of the injury.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 8:59 pm to Harvey Vortac
Bovada is -1 right now
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