There’s only one scenario where LSU doesn’t make the playoffs

Not according to the know it all Rece Davis

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We would get in over Tennessee

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This isn’t a guarantee. I believe they would but losing by 20 at home to the team you are being compared to leaves a sliver of doubt.

If USC wins out I really think they're in. Will be hard to not put in a team that will consecutively have beaten ND, UCLA, Oregon with one loss, particularly with a name like USC.

The scenario I'd be concerned with is TCU, Ohio State/Michigan and USC win out, and it comes down to picking 2/3 of Georgia, USC, LSU. Don't think Tennessee would get in under that scenario but I guess you throw them in too. If it comes down to that, I think we need to prepared for a scenario that has Ohio State/Michigan, TCU, Georgia and USC as the playoff four.

I think it's likely LSU gets in winning out (because I think somewhere we'll get help), but I don't look at it as the lock everyone else does. Which is why we should really want USC to lose another game, along with TCU.

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Proof? Or are you just guessing like every single other person?

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No one does, nor can, have any proof. In 2017 a 2-loss Auburn team was going to get in ahead of a 1 loss Alabama team had Auburn won the SEC Championship. However, the BIG difference is Auburn was Alabama's one loss. That was an easy justification for putting a 2 loss team in over a 1 loss team.

This scenario would be different. The committee, who has already set precedence that a 1 loss SEC team that didn't even make the SECCG can still make the CFP (Alabama - 2017) would have to justify putting in a 2 loss SEC champ over a one loss team that blew out the 2 loss team head to head. That becomes a harder sell.

The reality is if LSU wins the SEC championship all three SEC teams: Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, would deserve to be in the playoff along with the OSU/Michigan winner. But with the rest of the nation constantly bitching about an SEC bias, I think the committee will establish whatever rationale is possible to keep from selecting 3 teams...unless they have to.

There are several possibilities where we win out but get left out. Georgia goes unless we beat them by 2+ TDs. The winner of OSU/Michigan goes. If TCU wins out, they go. That leaves loser of OSU/Michigan, TN, and possibly USC.

We are not guaranteed, even if we win out.

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Then they would have USC at #6 ahead of LSU.

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Maybe now...the question becomes if beating UCLA, Notre Dame and Oregon consecutively would tip the scales three weeks from now.

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Maybe now...the question becomes if beating UCLA, Notre Dame and Oregon consecutively would tip the scales three weeks from now.

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LSU would also have a win over #1 Georgia in that scenario. All 3 of those teams are 3-4 loss teams in the end and won’t look quite so formidable in the final analysis.

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Lose another game. That’s it. We win the SEC championship and we’re in because there are only 3 teams who control their own destiny

Georgia
TCU
Winner of Ohio State/Michigan

We would get in over Tennessee or a 1 loss PAC 12 champ.

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this is all correct.

And if TCU loses and LSU wins out, the decision is between Tenn and USC for the last spot. Not LSU

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If we do lose to a Georgia, we want Tenn to make the playoffs though. An 11-1 team is going to the Sugar bowl over us.

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Who cares? That means orange bowl or cotton bowl for us.

Style points could really matter here. LSU needs to blow out UAB and A&M, and win comforably against Georgia.