The no BS look at the OOC Basketball Schedule for next season

So I thought I would put numbers behind the schedule in this outlook on the basketball OOC schedule. Seems like most people are heavily discouraged, which I get, from seeing such a poor home slate.

On and, TL:DR, I know...

The way I am approaching this is two-fold:
1. What each opponent's running 3 RPI average is (Simple average of last 3 years), since this is a big part of what goes into scheduling...RPIs and record taken from warren nolan's website
2. Their outlook for next season, ie how good were they last season, who do they have returning, etc

Nov. 6 vs. Southeastern Louisiana
2015-16: 10-21 (332 RPI)
2016-17: 14-16 (251 RPI)
2017-18: 19-12 (148 RPI)
3 year average: 244 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: The good news here is while their RPI average is bad the last 3 years, they've improved every year, up to 148 last season. They won the Southland Conference last season. Going into next year looks a bit iffy as they lose a handful of seniors many of which were starters, but they do return 2 double figure scorers in 6'7 forward Greenwood and 5'9 guard Veal who will both be seniors. They do have a couple transfers from Tulane and Texas State who will be eligible this year. This should be a game better than people think, but unlikely they are an RPI Top 100 team. Jay Ladner has done a good job with this program.


Nov. 9 vs. UNC-Greensboro
2015-16: 12-19 (233 RPI)
2016-17: 22-10 (98 RPI)
2017-18: 24-8 (66 RPI)
3 year average: 132 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: It took several years, but Wes Miller has his program going, winning the Southern conference the last 2 seasons and going to the NCAAT last season. They lose a couple starters, but return a very solid core group. Expect more of the same from UNCG this year, likely best team in the SoCon and a likely Top 100 RPI matchup for us.


Nov. 13 vs. Memphis
2015-16: 19-15 (140 RPI)
2016-17: 19-13 (119 RPI)
2017-18: 21-13 (108 RPI)
3 year average: 122 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: After underacheiving to program stands recently Memphis hired a new coach in Penny Hardaway. Remains to be seen what kind of impact he has in year 1, but he has a really nice team returning for him. they return by far their 2 best players in Davenport and Martin who will be seniors. they also have a few incoming 4-star freshmen guards who they expect to make an immediate impact. Look for this to be a pretty tough game for us, and another RPI Top 100 opponent.


Nov. 16 vs. Louisiana Tech
2015-16: 21-10 (129 RPI)
2016-17: 21-10 (116 RPI)
2017-18: 15-16 (192 RPI)
3 year average: 146

2018-19 Outlook: After Mike White left for Florida, Eric Konkol came in to LT and his first 2 years were very solid but last season saw quite a dip. Unfortunately, things look even more bleak going into next season. they lose only 1 senior starter off last year's team plus a part time starter, but they also lost their best returning player to transfer in Jalen Harris. They also lost 3 MORE players to transfer (to be fair, 2 were end of bench players) and haven't added any immediately eligible transfers to date. Guards Bracey and Jean will have to be big time leaders for this team to even repeat what they did last season. I do not expect this to be better than a RPI 150-200 matchup.


Nov. 22-25 vs. Advocare Invitational in Orlando
We could face many different teams here, but just know this is where we can help out ourselves a lot with a couple wins. No bracket is set yet, but there are some nice teams in this tournament.


Dec. 1 vs. Grambling State
2015-16: 4-24 (350 RPI)
2016-17: 13-17 (321 RPI)
2017-18: 16-14 (246 RPI)
3 year average: 306 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: I'll make this one short, Grambling is getting better but they wont be any better than that 250ish range in RPI. SWAC teams basically never are good in the RPI.


Dec. 9 vs. Incarnate Word
2015-16: 14-11 (167 RPI)
2016-17: 8-17 (301 RPI)
2017-18: 3-21 (348 RPI)
3 year average: 272 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: This team is flat out going in the wrong direction. I would take time to break them down like others, but honestly, they are just going to suck badly again, It will be a blessing if they are not an RPI 300+ team.


Dec. 12 @ Houston
2015-16: 22-10 (90 RPI)
2016-17: 21-11 (62 RPI)
2017-18: 27-8 (20 RPI)
3 year average: 57 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: Houston just gets better and better under head coach Kelvin Sampson. This year could be a bit tougher, Rob Gray was an elite player they are finally losing as well as another starter in Devin Davis and 6th man Wes VanBeck. They have 3 players transferring out, but were all next to non contributors last season. They add a grad transfer form Appalachian State who I wouldnt expect to be much of a contributor. They add a 4-star freshman who they expect to give them minutes in Nate Hinton though. All in all, I think you can expect a solid, but unspectacular Houston team this year. Corey Davis Jr. will be the team's leader. Likely RPI Top 100, but in the 75-100 range.


Dec. 15 vs. Saint Mary's in Las Vegas
2015-16: 28-6 (29 RPI)
2016-17: 29-5 (17 RPI)
2017-18: 30-6 (46 RPI)
3 year average: 31 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: Randy Bennett, one of the best college coaches nobody ever talks about, has put Saint Mary's on the map. This is a consistently very good team that just keeps dominating the WCC and racking up wins overall. This will be one of his toughest coaching jobs because he loses 3 starters, including best player Jock Landale, and a heavy rotation player in Cullen Neal off his team last year. Even their 6th man, Evan Fitzner, is grad transferring. HOWEVER, while most expect them to drop off a LOT, I really don't think they will by that much. They got a 7'3 grad transfer from Seattle who can play, they also got a 4-star 6'10 freshman coming in. On top of that they have return a 7'1 center and 6'10 center. It's a very tall front court and they could use that to their advantage in a league like the WCC to abuse a lot of teams down low. They could use that front court to abuse really many teams on their schedule. I expect this to still be a very tough neutral matchup for us, with their RPI staying inside the Top 100 and in the 50-75 range is my expectation.


Dec. 21 vs. Furman
2015-16: 17-16 (176 RPI)
2016-17: 21-12 (90 RPI)
2017-18: 21-10 (96 RPI)
3 year average: 121 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: Head coach Bob Richey had a very nice 1st year at Furman, however, he loses 3 starters, all among his best players. Brown and Rafferty are senior returning starters however so they have some nice experience still. I expect this team to take a step back, and be a RPI 150ish range team this upcoming season.


Dec. 28 vs. UL-Monroe
2015-16: 18-14 (104 RPI)
2016-17: 7-24 (294 RPI)
2017-18: 13-16 (224 RPI)
3 year RPI average: 207 RPI

2018-19 Outlook: The Warhawks is a team Wade said he expected to be a lot better this upcoming season. They do lose 2 double figure starters, but return 2 key starters in sophmore Michael Ertel and senior Travis Munnings who both were great for ULM last year. Harris is grad transfer who should also help some. I expect ULM to be in the 150ish range in RPI.