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re: Team Talent by Class (for Analytical Nerds)
Posted on 12/28/20 at 9:06 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 12/28/20 at 9:06 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
I figure defensive production would be even harder to predict
Here’s a link to Connelly’s returning production article for 2020:
ESPN LINK
He describes his methodology in the article, though there is unfortunately a formatting error for the linebackers portion. The defensive production is a calculated a little differently. He mixes in the overall defensive totals as well as unit-specific production. I think the weighting is:
- Percentage of defensive returning production formula derived from defensive line: 5%
- Percentage derived from linebacking corps: 37%
- Percentage derived from secondary: 37%
- Percentage derived from full defense: 21%
quote:
and that is where LSU would have really been hit hard.
The numbers for LSU were:
- Overall returning production: 42% (#127 of 130)
- Offense: 30% (#128 of 130)
- Defense: 54% (#92 of 130)
However, that was in February. Meaning it was before we lost Shelvin, Ika, Vincent, and Chase.
Shelvin was our 9th-leading tackler (2nd on DL) while Vincent was our 7th leading tackler (3rd DB). If you narrow that to guys who actually would have been coming back as of February, they were our 2nd and 4th leading tacklers overall. So that likely would have been a significant hit to the defensive numbers. Obviously Chase would have been another big hit to the offensive numbers as well.
0
Posted on 12/28/20 at 9:22 pm to lostinbr
As smart as you obviously seem to be, Im hoping you got quite a bit of money and are so tired of just running through good looking women and them throwing themselves at you that you had a few free minutes in between to throw this all together and this post didn't take you away from any of that...
Posted on 12/28/20 at 9:29 pm to lostinbr
Tiger Ree would be proud
Posted on 12/28/20 at 9:30 pm to lostinbr
First of all, this is an amazing breakdown of a very complicated mass of data. I half-arse attempted this last year for the 2019 Team Talent data and got bogged down fairly quickly. It sounds like the Reddit info concerning 24/7's 30 point scale was a game changer for you. Thanks and great job!
Question about the overall team talent graph. It looks like UGA is at 990, LSU is at 870 and South Carolina is at 770. This works out to UGA having a 120 pt advantage over LSU and LSU having a 100 pt advantage over South Carolina.
Is it then accurate to state that we are closer in talent to South Carolina than we are to UGA?
Thanks again, love this shite!
Question about the overall team talent graph. It looks like UGA is at 990, LSU is at 870 and South Carolina is at 770. This works out to UGA having a 120 pt advantage over LSU and LSU having a 100 pt advantage over South Carolina.
Is it then accurate to state that we are closer in talent to South Carolina than we are to UGA?
Thanks again, love this shite!
Posted on 12/28/20 at 10:19 pm to Basura Blanco
quote:
It sounds like the Reddit info concerning 24/7's 30 point scale was a game changer for you.
Yeah, I knew I had to be able to reproduce the 247 results first and was banging my head against the wall until I came across a post from someone trying to do the same thing with the 247 recruiting class scores (it’s basically the same formula). Tried the 30-point scale, and all of a sudden it worked.
Highly recommend r/CFBAnalysis for anybody who is a statistics nerd. One of the posters there actually runs the CFBData website.
quote:
Question about the overall team talent graph. It looks like UGA is at 990, LSU is at 870 and South Carolina is at 770. This works out to UGA having a 120 pt advantage over LSU and LSU having a 100 pt advantage over South Carolina.
Yeah that wasn’t lost on me either. The gap between UGA/Bama and everyone else is pretty staggering. And while LSU’s (seemingly) high attrition rate hurts, that’s far from the only reason. 2019-2021 have been excellent recruiting classes at LSU. So surely we would be catching up, right? But look at the differentials between LSU and UGA/Bama each year:
2019
Bama +33.44
UGA +24.92
2020
UGA +14.54
Bama +11.62
2021 (so far)
Bama +33.72
UGA +4.90
UGA and LSU will both get 4-5 more commits this cycle, so LSU might pass up UGA for once. But Bama has been lights out. I do believe that the so-called “Bama bump” is real, to a point. So that’s going to skew things some. Still, you’re talking about a team with 7 five-star commits in the 2021 class. That’s absurd.
Since 2012, Bama has had one class with a 247 score <300 while LSU has never had a score >300. That means 9 out of Bama’s last 10 classes have been rated higher than LSU’s best class in history. I don’t mean to sound like a Bama shill, but sometimes I wonder whether people truly realize what we’re up against here.
This post was edited on 12/28/20 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 12/28/20 at 10:19 pm to lostinbr
Unbelievable. I am gonna bet Covid allows you to work from home
Posted on 12/28/20 at 10:21 pm to Homerun12
Nah, I was actually at the office today. But since I was one of like three people that showed up, I wasn’t feeling very motivated to do any real work.
Posted on 12/28/20 at 10:39 pm to lostinbr
quote:
but sometimes I wonder whether people truly realize what we’re up against here
Yeah. It's almost a High School All-American team from just about all regions of the US versus some of the rest of the SE US All-Region team.
That's why you sometimes have to go to Ohio or California or whereever if you want to compete.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 6:58 am to lostinbr
Well done lostinbr ! What do you do on your spare time ?
Posted on 12/29/20 at 7:08 am to lostinbr
I think we need to talk about how bad Kirby might be at coaching. Recruiting, great. But to constantly do nothing with the talent he has.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 8:35 am to lostinbr
quote:Yup.
Since 2012, Bama has had one class with a 247 score <300 while LSU has never had a score >300. That means 9 out of Bama’s last 10 classes have been rated higher than LSU’s best class in history. I don’t mean to sound like a Bama shill, but sometimes I wonder whether people truly realize what we’re up against here.
Those are brutal facts.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 9:11 am to lostinbr
A great, fact-forward post that has not garnered a single downvote or generated any frothy-mouthed responses.
What planet are you from lostinbr?
What planet are you from lostinbr?
Posted on 12/29/20 at 10:06 am to lostinbr
Something I wanted to address from my original post - if you read my detailed explanation, you might have noticed this comment:
Which begs the question: what would the graphs look like without Gilbert or Marshall?
Gilbert is a freshman and Marshall is a junior, so the sophomore and senior calculations would not change. For the remaining items, though, Marshall and Gilbert make a pretty big difference. Gilbert was our highest-rated freshman on the roster, and Marshall was our highest-rated junior. The two are also our #2 and #3 overall rated players.
For the following graphs, LSU* (gold bar) denotes LSU's rating without Terrace Marshall or Arik Gilbert:
What about that graph of LSU vs. the SEC median for each class? Here's what it looked like with Gilbert and Marshall:
And here's what it looks like without Gilbert and Marshall:
It's safe to say that those two players make a huge difference to the calculations.
quote:
Note that all of the data from this point on includes Arik Gilbert and Terrace Marshall for the LSU calcs. I was torn on this, but elected to leave them in the calcs since both played a majority of the season.
Which begs the question: what would the graphs look like without Gilbert or Marshall?
Gilbert is a freshman and Marshall is a junior, so the sophomore and senior calculations would not change. For the remaining items, though, Marshall and Gilbert make a pretty big difference. Gilbert was our highest-rated freshman on the roster, and Marshall was our highest-rated junior. The two are also our #2 and #3 overall rated players.
For the following graphs, LSU* (gold bar) denotes LSU's rating without Terrace Marshall or Arik Gilbert:
What about that graph of LSU vs. the SEC median for each class? Here's what it looked like with Gilbert and Marshall:
And here's what it looks like without Gilbert and Marshall:
It's safe to say that those two players make a huge difference to the calculations.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 10:14 am to lostinbr
quote:
I do believe that the so-called “Bama bump” is real, to a point. So that’s going to skew things some.
I’m not into recruiting rankings beyond the final overall ranking and where we are relative to other teams, so I’ve never much cared about the “Bama bump.” I assumed it was likely real, but overblown. Looking at this, though, I’ve got to hope it’s significantly “under blown,” but, unfortunately, doubt it. I also hope that a “Georgia bump” has developed as well. Regardless, both programs have turned into recruiting monsters, and the gap seems to be widening with each class.
quote:
Since 2012, Bama has had one class with a 247 score <300 while LSU has never had a score >300. That means 9 out of Bama’s last 10 classes have been rated higher than LSU’s best class in history. I don’t mean to sound like a Bama shill, but sometimes I wonder whether people truly realize what we’re up against here.
Like I said, I don’t really get into the recruiting numbers weeds, but even with my rudimentary “analysis,” I can see that a decade of Bama finishing with the #1 or #2 class is impossible to keep pace with. I’ve always said Saban wins championships January through August and Sunday through Friday. They just prove it on Saturdays in the fall.
Luckily for us, games are still played on the field and won by actual human beings so as long as we stay close, we’ll eventually have the stars align with a special group of winners capable of transcending their raw recruiting rankings and winning a championship. But I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect it more often than the current every 4-5 years pattern we’ve enjoyed the last 20 seasons. Especially considering the ACC and Big 10 have their own “Bama” machines we have to compete with as well.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 10:43 am to Salviati
And yet they only have 2 NC since 2012.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:25 am to BayouBengals90
quote:
And yet they only have 2 NC since 2012.
Jameis Winston
Cardale Jones
Deshawn Watson
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow
These are the starting QBs for the non-Bama NCs in that time frame. You can beat Bama, but it’s usually gonna take a transcendent QB to do so.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:48 am to Hot Carl
quote:
You can beat Bama, but it’s usually gonna take a transcendent QB to do so.
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:52 am to Breauxsif
quote:
How long did it take you to put that together?
He probably has a few graphs to illustrate that.
OP
Posted on 12/29/20 at 12:23 pm to lostinbr
Wow impressive research and time invested in that.. The Graph King!
Notice Georgia and Bama were 1 and 2 the whole way and Bama jumped them for most Senior players. That is all around but with the quality of seniors they kept from 2019 to play in 2020 is just incredible as all would have gone first round but came back- like Leatherwood, Smith and Harris, shows why they are always good year end and year out.
Notice Georgia and Bama were 1 and 2 the whole way and Bama jumped them for most Senior players. That is all around but with the quality of seniors they kept from 2019 to play in 2020 is just incredible as all would have gone first round but came back- like Leatherwood, Smith and Harris, shows why they are always good year end and year out.
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