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1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:12 am to Salviati
quote:
a football game in the season is NOT an independent event.
Yes it is. The odds of LSUs success vs McNeese have no bearing on the odds of success vs Bama. That's why his prediction doesn't make sense.
The problem with the "math" he's using is that when you average out the odds of independent events as part of a whole, the odds of one event changes the odds of another event.
For example, the presence of McNeese's 100% skews Bama's 30% and vice versa.
In reality, this isn't how odds work. Independent events don't affect the relative odds of other independent events.
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 11:20 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:19 am to chilge1
quote:
Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
"Among" not "Between". And yes, those odds DO INDEED suggest 3-1. When we say you have a 35% chance of losing that means that probably 35 times out of 100 you will lose.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:20 am to Guava Jelly
quote:No. The gambler's fallacy deals with predicting the future based on past events. The gambler's fallacy deals with the false belief that a percentage likelihood can be altered by past events.
Yes. The gambler's fallacy deals with viewing the odds of success as an aggregate, which is what you're doing.
For example: A dumb gambler believes that if red has just won ten times in a row, then NOW is the time to bet black because the chances are nearly impossible for red to win 11 times in a row. However, that dumb gambler is wrong. The chance of red winning again remains exactly the same for the eleventh time as it did for the first time. One event does not affect the subsequent event.
quote:You don't average the percentages. However, you can add the percentages to determine the total. In your example, you are most likely to win 2.75 hands or, rounded, 3 out of 4.
If you have a 5% chance of winning a hand in poker and a 90% chance of winning three others, you're more likely to win 3/4 of those games based on the individual odds because each event is independent, not 68.75% based on an aggregate of those odds.
If a penny is tossed into the air 100 times, how many times do you think it will turn up heads?
ANSWER = .5 x 100 = 50
If a penny is slightly bent such that it has a 60% chance of coming up heads, and it is tossed into the air 100 times, how many times do you think it will turn up heads?
ANSWER = .6 x 100 = 60
If the two pennies are tossed into the air alternately 50 times each, how many times do you think the pennies will turn up heads?
ANSWER = .5 x 50 + .6 x 50 = 55
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:21 am to Salviati
Salviati is right.
Lakeboy is right, also. It's time for the season to start.
Lakeboy is right, also. It's time for the season to start.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:21 am to CptBengal
quote:You can't be serious.quote:a coin flip is an independent event.
If a penny
a football game in the season is NOT an independent event.
A football game IS an independent event.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:22 am to Salviati
quote:
That works out to 8.6 wins for the season; thus, the lines suggest a 9-3 season, perhaps an 8-4 season.*
Make it 7-5 if the QB situation isn't settled.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:22 am to Salviati
way too much time on your hands. Let's just watch the actual games. Then we'll know.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:24 am to chilge1
quote:
Between these four games, there is at best a 35% chance we lose each individual game, yet your analysis would suggest that we will go 3-1 against these four.
Why does that surprise you?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:25 am to Salviati
Salviati, you are right on everything with two exceptions:
1. Most money bet is NOT smart money.
2. The outcome of games DO affect the future games. However, viewed from today, they do not.
1. Most money bet is NOT smart money.
2. The outcome of games DO affect the future games. However, viewed from today, they do not.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:25 am to Guava Jelly
quote:quote:Yes it is. The odds of LSUs success vs McNeese have no bearing on the odds of success vs Bama. That's why his prediction doesn't make sense.
a football game in the season is NOT an independent event.
quote:You do NOT average out the odds. Each event is independent of the others. My math does not change the odds of another event.
The problem with the "math" he's using is that when you average out the odds of independent events as part of a whole, the odds of one event changes the odds of another event.
quote:The result of this example is 1.3 games, rounded, LSU is likely to win 1 of the 2 games.
For example, the presence of McNeese's 100% skews Bama's 30% and vice versa.
This is correct.
quote:In reality, my math reflects EXACLT how odds work. My math is EXACTLY correct. I am not conflating events. I am treating each event individually.
In reality, this isn't how odds work. Independent events don't affect the relative odds of other independent events.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:26 am to Salviati
quote:
:sigh:
Betting lines have everything to do with money being bet on games. Most money is smart money. Thus, betting lines are some of the best indicators of the actual ability of a team.
That's a really bad argument.
Your argument should be that historically, when looking at the data of betting lines vs. actual outcomes...the win % is your chart.
Is that not where you derived the chart you are using?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:26 am to Salviati
quote:
*Consider a team that has an 80% chance to win each game in a ten game season. 80% = .8 and ten games = 10; thus: .8 x 10 = 8 Thus, a team with an 80% chance to win each of ten games is most likely to win 8 games.
Without ties, win's and losses are absolutes. Shouldn't anything above 50% be counted as a predictive "win" individually, instead of cumulative?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:28 am to atltiger6487
quote:Uhhh . . . which games do you suggest that I watch right now.
way too much time on your hands. Let's just watch the actual games. Then we'll know.
So I guess you didn't participate in any season prediction threads?
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:29 am to Salviati
quote:
predicting the future based on past events
This is EXACTLY what you're doing when you average the odds of success.
Again, I'll try to explain it. LSU's odds of success vs McNeese according to this are 100%. On a later event, the Bama game, LSU's odds of success are 30%.
When viewed as individual events, as they should be, LSU would win vs McNeese and likely lose vs Bama. But, when you average the odds, this changes. Your odds of success among all events is 65%.
This is flawed because your odds of success vs McNeese have no bearing on your odds of success vs Bama.
quote:
you do NOT average out the odds
quote:
860%
That works out to 8.6 wins for the season; thus, the lines suggest a 9-3 season, perhaps an 8-4 season.*
What do you think this is?
This post was edited on 8/21/15 at 11:37 am
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:34 am to Salviati
quote:
Ole Miss. . . . . . . . . . 4
The line for LSU/Ole Miss as a P.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:35 am to Salviati
quote:
Uhhh . . . which games do you suggest that I watch right now.
So I guess you didn't participate in any season prediction threads?
I did. 9-3. Took me about 20 seconds after considering our roster and schedule.
All your mathematical analysis, while somewhat impressive, just doesn't mean squat. Sorry to put it that bluntly, but it's true.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:36 am to Penrod
quote:Thank you.
Salviati, you are right on everything with two exceptions:
quote:I tend to disagree. While there may be fewer smart bettors, the money bet by smart bettors tends to exceed the money bet by dumb bettors. But I don't want to belabor that point. The greater point is that betting lines tend to be startlingly accurate.
1. Most money bet is NOT smart money.
quote:I agree with both of your statements. A team reacts to how if performed earlier in the year. Your second statement is reflected in the fact that betting lines change over time to reflect these affects. Thus, a prediction based upon betting lines would also change over time viewed from the day of the prediction.
2. The outcome of games DO affect the future games. However, viewed from today, they do not.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:40 am to Guava Jelly
quote:
This is EXACTLY what you're doing when you average the odds of success.
Again, I'll try to explain it. LSU's odds of success vs McNeese according to this are 100%. On a later event, the Bama game, LSU's odds of success are 30%.
When viewed as individual events, as they should be, LSU would win vs McNeese and likely lose vs Bama. But, when you average the odds, this changes. Your odds of success among all events is 65%.
This is flawed because your odds of success vs McNeese have no bearing on your odds of success vs Bama.
I'm not seeing why his logic isn't sound.
He is calculating the "most likely result" of both games. In other words, if you played Bama and McNeese on Saturday and Sunday of every week this season, more often than not, we are going to win one, and lose one. 30% of the time we will win both. And, zero percent of the time we will lose both. But, 70% of the time, we will be 1-1.
I think he is right.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:41 am to Salviati
quote:
gree with both of your statements. A team reacts to how if performed earlier in the year. Your second statement is reflected in the fact that betting lines change over time to reflect these affects.
This is the polar opposite of the purpose of the coin flip analogy.
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