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Sam Leavitt is a good passer with historic bad luck.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:46 pm
Most of his turnovers were bad luck. Like straight up comedy movie bad luck.
5 of Sam Leavitt's 8 interceptions were due to tipped, deflected, or dropped balls.
Only 3 of his passes ON THE ENTIRE SEASON have been considered turnover worthy plays. And of those 3, only 1 was a poor read, the louisiana tech pick six. The other 2 were the correct read but resulted in a turnover worthy play due to poor timing/accuracy.
Historically, the statistical conversion rate of turnover worthy plays (TWP) is around 50-60%. Which means, on average, a quarterback gets intercepted on every other turnover worthy play. Sam Leavitt has been intercepted on 100% of his 3 TWPs and 5 on target passes. He is rocking a 270% TWP conversion rate... The level of bad luck he has had this year is unbelievable...
Sam Leavitt has had 9 balls that were either batted/tipped at the line of scrimmage or popped up by his recievers, 5 of those were intercepted. Which is about 3-4x the historical interception rate for those plays.
His luck this year through 7 games is such a statistical anomaly that he is sitting at ~2x more interceptions to TWPs than the next 2 most unlucky quarterbacks in power 4/5 football since PFF has been tracking these stats in 2014. Nobody has had more than a 1.4x TWP to INT rate as a major starter, Sam is at 2.7x
5 of Sam Leavitt's 8 interceptions were due to tipped, deflected, or dropped balls.
Only 3 of his passes ON THE ENTIRE SEASON have been considered turnover worthy plays. And of those 3, only 1 was a poor read, the louisiana tech pick six. The other 2 were the correct read but resulted in a turnover worthy play due to poor timing/accuracy.
Historically, the statistical conversion rate of turnover worthy plays (TWP) is around 50-60%. Which means, on average, a quarterback gets intercepted on every other turnover worthy play. Sam Leavitt has been intercepted on 100% of his 3 TWPs and 5 on target passes. He is rocking a 270% TWP conversion rate... The level of bad luck he has had this year is unbelievable...
Sam Leavitt has had 9 balls that were either batted/tipped at the line of scrimmage or popped up by his recievers, 5 of those were intercepted. Which is about 3-4x the historical interception rate for those plays.
His luck this year through 7 games is such a statistical anomaly that he is sitting at ~2x more interceptions to TWPs than the next 2 most unlucky quarterbacks in power 4/5 football since PFF has been tracking these stats in 2014. Nobody has had more than a 1.4x TWP to INT rate as a major starter, Sam is at 2.7x
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:51 pm to Hurricane2020
I am a huge fan of Leavitt and would rather have him than any other right now BUT I have never seen a QB that gets his passes batted or tipped more. That's on him.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:51 pm to Hurricane2020
I’m with you on all this and I love what we’ve seen out of his growth/development.
But he also has two fumbles, both entirely his fault. The Kentucky one was costly.
But he also has two fumbles, both entirely his fault. The Kentucky one was costly.
This post was edited on 10/20/26 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:52 pm to Bayoubred
Is it? Or is it just really bad luck. His tip rate was extremely low at ASU.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:55 pm to Hurricane2020
Most of his INTs were the result of off target throws.
He threw behind Elzy vs. Clemson
He air mailed the first INT vs. Tech.
The pick 6 was a (slightly) off target throw.
His INT vs. Ole Miss was a low throw that hit the DT. He's had more than a few balls tipped this year.
The Kentucky INT was an awful throw.
The A&M int was probably the only real "bad luck" turnover.
He threw behind Elzy vs. Clemson
He air mailed the first INT vs. Tech.
The pick 6 was a (slightly) off target throw.
His INT vs. Ole Miss was a low throw that hit the DT. He's had more than a few balls tipped this year.
The Kentucky INT was an awful throw.
The A&M int was probably the only real "bad luck" turnover.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 3:56 pm to Hurricane2020
Y’all really be jumping through hoops trying explain away all of his turnovers
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:01 pm to Alt26
A ball that is slightly off target, either high or behind, that hits the receiver in the hands, but pops up in the air and is intercepted, is not a turnover-worthy play. That is the receiver's fault. At the level of play at LSU, if a ball hits both hands and you're not jumping eight feet in the air, you should be catching that ball. And balls that are batted or hit and popped up by defense of players off the line of scrimmage are called PDUs. Those are pass breakups. And even with all that considered, Leavitt's interception rate to pop-ups from receivers, pass breakups, and tipped batted balls at the line of scrimmage are significantly higher than the national average and the historical average.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:04 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
Most of his turnovers were bad luck.
I like Sam, but he puts the balls into position to be tipped and also pretty bad about staring down a WR when he has others open. Or if the main WR he’s looking at is covered, he’s always checking down to the RB. He won’t be able to rely on Jones to beef up his passing yards all season. Somebody like Alabama will tear that shite up like Brian Dawkins vs Reggie Bush
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:06 pm to Hurricane2020
Big fan of Leavitt!
Several of those tipped or deflected balls we’re from the DLine and could’ve been avoided. I think even 1 or 2 were off of helmets.
That said, he’s tightened his shite up. I think he knows that too. I think we see a very good version of him the rest of the year. He will return and be deadly next year.
Several of those tipped or deflected balls we’re from the DLine and could’ve been avoided. I think even 1 or 2 were off of helmets.
That said, he’s tightened his shite up. I think he knows that too. I think we see a very good version of him the rest of the year. He will return and be deadly next year.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:27 pm to mwade91383
Only 3 multi-game starting quarterbacks ranked in the top 25 currently have fewer fumbles, or fumbles per snap than Sam (pass, sack, scramble, run). He has the lowest fumble rate and total fumbles in the SEC. Only 7 multi game power 4 starting QBs have a lower fumbke rate than sam. Among top 25 starters with 50 or more rushing attempts he is one of only 2 players with zero fumbles past the line of scrimmage.
His ball security is elite.
His ball security is elite.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:30 pm to Underteaux
quote:
Sheldon Brown vs Reggie Bush
FIFY
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:33 pm to Hurricane2020
No argument there either, I’m kinda splitting hairs.
I just think the fumbles (given they were both on attempted pass plays, I think) should be included in the OP analysis.
I just think the fumbles (given they were both on attempted pass plays, I think) should be included in the OP analysis.
This post was edited on 10/20/26 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 10/20/26 at 4:34 pm to Underteaux
Actual turnovers are still heavily dependent on luck. Leavitt is actually best in the SEC in turnover worthy plays among starters.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 5:05 pm to Hurricane2020
He’s had a lot of bad luck, but in reality, he’s only had two really bad plays. And both of them were extremely costly. One of them was the overtime bad throw against Kentucky that hit the defender’s helmet, and the other one was the fumble on a dumb arse play that he should’ve taken a sack on against Kentucky. The rest of them were survivable. I bet if you ask him, he would agree that both of those were really bad plays and he needs to do better.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 5:07 pm to Hurricane2020
It’s not bad luck it’s poor protection. Guards being walked into the QB produces tipped balls. Leavitt came to LSU with 8 career tipped balls in 600+ attempts then had 5 in the first 100 attempts here. Thats not a Leavitt issue
Posted on 10/20/26 at 5:11 pm to Alt26
PFF did the work already here, only 3 turnover worthy plays, 2 were INTs and the other was the UK fumble. Yes that is considered incredibly bad luck for a guy with 8 INT on the season any way you slice it. Some of you pretending like a batted pass is "on him" is insane. Its pure luck when that stuff happens against you as a passer and where the ball lands also purely luck.
Weston getting backed up into him is not on him either.
Sam has among the lowest turnover worthy plays of any SEC qb this season, he's been playing extremely well. He will progress to thr mean easily as bad luck doesn't typically follow you all season long.
Weston getting backed up into him is not on him either.
Sam has among the lowest turnover worthy plays of any SEC qb this season, he's been playing extremely well. He will progress to thr mean easily as bad luck doesn't typically follow you all season long.
Posted on 10/20/26 at 5:21 pm to Madking
quote:
It’s not bad luck it’s poor protection. Guards being walked into the QB produces tipped balls. Leavitt came to LSU with 8 career tipped balls in 600+ attempts then had 5 in the first 100 attempts here. Thats not a Leavitt issue
Ding ding ding. We have a winner.
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