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re: Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:47 pm to BornKjun
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:47 pm to BornKjun
Very good points, and a great post. Your wrong on #2, though. LSU will throw for at least 250 unless I'm totally surprised and LSU shuts down the Gators offense (I doubt it). You're right on #'s 1 and 3. I think it will be a struggle, too.
1
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:49 pm to Penrod
I ain't reading all that and you sound like a pussy , good thing your not the head coach
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:53 pm to BornKjun
quote:
I'm as big a LSU fan as the next guy.
No you're not.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:55 pm to BornKjun
quote:
so many logic flaws in this post, I don't even know where to begin.
Name one.
Well, to be brief, you are comparing championship games, which are historically played much more tightly than a regular season game, to a regular season game.
Also, if you know anything about statistics,you would know we don't have near the sample size to properly project anything from the ones we have.
It also appears that you assumed that every team was equal, and that historical yards project points.
quote:
Do you seriously think that Florida OUTGAINS us by 100 yards?
Wouldn't bet on it, but if things go really bad-- they run all over LSU-- with their defense I think there is some chance of it.
So you are saying that your projections will only apply if things go really bad. projected outcomes are supposed to be used using a weighted average of expected probability of multiple scenarios times the outcome to arrive at expected outcome.
I appreciate what you have done here, you have obviously looked into the stats to try and tell the story, I just think that your logic is a little flawed, not your math.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:56 pm to BornKjun
bookmarked
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:58 pm to BornKjun
I'm not scared of Florida on the road or at home. I'm just tired of playing them.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:01 pm to Brageous
I don't think the OP's position is that unreasonable. Florida's defense might be the best in the country. If there's one defense we should be afraid of, it's this one. Also, Driskel's injury was a blessing for the team, as they no longer have a QB who will give the game away by throwing a bunch of picks. Florida is a stout opponent.
On LSU's side is that LSU has already put up big numbers against a top tier defense: TCU's. I do think its a bit much to think that a defense is going to stop LSU's offense entirely, which has already had a stiff test, and passed. Though our lack of a consistent run game is a concern.
I think LSU will win, but I also think it should be a very tight game. That 7 point spread is huge.
On LSU's side is that LSU has already put up big numbers against a top tier defense: TCU's. I do think its a bit much to think that a defense is going to stop LSU's offense entirely, which has already had a stiff test, and passed. Though our lack of a consistent run game is a concern.
I think LSU will win, but I also think it should be a very tight game. That 7 point spread is huge.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:01 pm to TigersOfGeauxld
quote:
To be fair, it was the muffed punt when the score was tied 27-27 that was the difference in the game.
yeah cus sacking mett on the last drive had nothing to do with their defense coming up with a play.
We didnt touch murray once. An i consider them recovering a fumble, regardless if it was on st or offense, as a good defensive play.
My argument was that our d showed to be better than ugas based on statistics from the previous games. but we lost.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:08 pm to BornKjun
Excuse me if this has already been covered because I haven't looked at all the pages.
You're fricking retarded
You a) aren't that big of an LSU fan if you underestimate them THIS much. AND b) clearly haven't looked very hard at UF's schedule.
You're fricking retarded
You a) aren't that big of an LSU fan if you underestimate them THIS much. AND b) clearly haven't looked very hard at UF's schedule.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:11 pm to BornKjun
Do you like LSU?
Why would you waste your time writing all of this frickery?
Just watch the game man
Why would you waste your time writing all of this frickery?
Just watch the game man
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:13 pm to RonFNSwanson
quote:
Why would you waste your time writing all of this frickery?
Just lowering some of the expectations for Saturday. Came up with this score for my boss who has a bookie. Told him I think he should stay away from LSU -7. It's not that I think the score is right, it just showed me Florida may be tougher than a +7 underdog with their D and running game.
Pay less attention to the stats/score and more to the three bold points.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:13 pm to BornKjun
florida lost to miami your argument fails
/thread
/thread
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:15 pm to BornKjun
fail . Post less. Or quit. PS . UF play one decent team , and lost.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:17 pm to LSUButt
quote:
You a) aren't that big of an LSU fan if you underestimate them THIS much.
this is one of the worst mindsets in fandom.
you can be worried about an opponent and still be a fan. likewise being a fan doesn't mean that you think your team will/should blowout every opponent. that's just silly.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:21 pm to Baloo
quote:
I don't think the OP's position is that unreasonable.
I don't think so either, but what he is using as his basis is just flawed.
quote:
Florida's defense might be the best in the country. If there's one defense we should be afraid of, it's this one.
Subjective. Nothing wrong with that at all. He is trying to bring objectivity of stats into the equation, also nothing wrong with that, but to predict a score on stats of 5-6 games, in which he uses a very elementary ratio of points/yards, is just suspect, if you ask me.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:25 pm to BornKjun
quote:
Staying away from LSU -7
Dude if you are truly confident in your calculations, it seems like you are getting nearly 10 points for UF. If you bet UF +7, you arent betting against LSU, you are betting against the spread. I think most would agree this will be a tight game, so you are not off base thinking LSU -7 is a little high.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:26 pm to OceanMan
quote:
his basis is just flawed.
I agree it's flawed. No better way though that I know of.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:29 pm to BornKjun
quote:
BornKjun
Why don't you just say what you're thinking....You're trying to sound intelligent so if LSU loses, you have this "i called it" type post.
And a major flaw in your reasoning is that aside from Miami, Florida really hasn't played anybody. You're putting all this hope in stats and that goes out the door when you play all these cake games they've been playing. This is their toughest game.
The fact that you would pour this much time into a post that you intend to inject "worry" into the fanbase says alot about you personally.....Thats the biggest thing I take from this post.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:31 pm to Ignignot
quote:
You're trying to sound intelligent so if LSU loses, you have this "i called it" type post
Because I have a history of doing this???
Posted on 10/10/13 at 2:33 pm to TDTGodfather
quote:
this is one of the worst mindsets in fandom.
Did you read what he wrote? We've offensively crushed every team, now we are going to have 280 yards of offense?
I'm a realist, and I completely expect a tough game, a very possible L. I'd bet on LSU winning, but probably not even to cover. But look at the way he broke it down. LSU will get 66-79 yards because teams like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Toledo couldn't run on them
...I mean c'mon man, you gotta see the humor in that. Oh, and by the way, the fact that he left out that the best player on their team is an all-world DT who won't be playing....Also, when was the last time LSU ran for less than 100 yards? I'm assuming national championship against Bama. But outside of that?
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