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Question to baseball gurus: effectiveness of the shift with inconsistent pitch location

Posted on 4/30/26 at 7:54 am
Posted by tomcatrav
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2009
492 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 7:54 am
To those who know more and/or have played:

I would assume that when we shift the infield to the pull side, the plan would be to pitch middle-in to encourage the batter to hit into the shift . (But maybe that is an inaccurate assumption)

If that assumption is correct however, part of the effectiveness of the shift involves pitchers hitting their spots. (And hitting their spots has definitely been an issue this season)

If so, does that maybe explain why we seemingly have such bad “luck” with the shift, especially this season?

Sorry if Germans, but I hadn’t seen it discussed before. I’ll hang up and listen.

Posted by LSU=Champions
BAWxtard | Tier 1
Member since Apr 2004
22449 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:00 am to
If what you’re trying to say is our defensive positioning with aggressive shifting is worthless when our pitchers miss their spots, then your point is correct.

The shift isn’t just projecting future results based upon historical spray chart. It’s reliant upon pitchers hitting their spots, which much of our staff has a difficult enough time getting it across the plate as it is.

I would agree that when our pitching staff is as inaccurate as it is, the defensive alignment should regress more toward a traditional mean. The aggressive shifting should only happen if and when a pitching staff shows its ability to throw the ball where it is intended (LSU’s clearly hasn’t).

We’re essentially putting the cart before the horse, applying analytics before becoming proficient at the basic fundamentals.
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 8:02 am
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25470 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:01 am to
We have "bad luck" with the shift because people run here and make 10 threads for every time it doesn't work. But say nothing the times it does, so it makes it appear it never works.

I 100% guarantee you Jay Johnson has WAYYYY more information than we do, and he tries to use it to his advantage. The purpose of the shift isn't for it to work 100% of the time. If the results are a net positive it's working.
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9532 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:01 am to
It’s a TD myth that Jays shift doesn’t work. In the Sunday game vs Aggie Milam threw runners out from 3rd, SS, 2nd, and shallow RT field
Posted by fat mike eats it
New Orleans
Member since Dec 2008
196 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:46 am to
Good point, but I don't think the calls for pitches are pitching to hit into anything (pop-up, into the shift, into a double play, or otherwise). Based off of what I have seen, that is MLB level shite and in college they are pitching for the SO. It looks like, with two outs, when a player gets on first, the wheels come off - it never looks like they are pitching with confidence in the defense. I think in college painting the edges and pitching with confidence is the name of the game.
This post was edited on 4/30/26 at 8:48 am
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25470 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 8:55 am to
quote:

but I don't think the calls for pitches are pitching to hit into anything (pop-up, into the shift, into a double play, or otherwise). Based off of what I have seen, that is MLB level shite and in college they are pitching for the SO. It looks like, with two outs, when a player gets on first, the wheels come off - it never looks like they are pitching with confidence in the defense. I think in college painting the edges and pitching with confidence is the name of the game


Huh? That's a lot of words to not really say much of anything at all.
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22970 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:06 am to
quote:

I would assume that when we shift the infield to the pull side, the plan would be to pitch middle-in to encourage the batter to hit into the shift . (But maybe that is an inaccurate assumption)


That is an inaccurate assumption. Pull heavy hitters are typically pull heavy hitters regardless of where the pitch is located and often times you want to avoid throwing middle in because that's what they're looking for.
Posted by KiffinLagniappe
Member since Mar 2026
18 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:07 am to
My sources tell me Jay is working on a shift that defends the walk better...

All jokes aside the shift is just a numbers game that is mostly played with pull hitters, or batter tendencies against LHP vs RHP. Really just using statistics and metrics to try to put guys in the right position to make plays. It's not a perfect science, but most coaches would say it's helped more than it's hurt them.

To answer your question though it's much more based on the hitter than it is the pitcher and hitting spots.
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
12853 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:12 am to
quote:

If the results are a net positive it's working.


This. Its a poker tournament. You lose some hands along the way but if you win more than lose you gonna be ok.

Even that LSU isnt going to Omaha I dont thinm Jay would abandon the philosophy. I personally hate the shift when a slow ground ball goes right in the massive hole we didn't expect it to go. But I trust Jay considering he has more NC’s than any other active HC in the past decade.
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
22599 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:14 am to
That's one reason I don't like the shift in college. Most college pitchers don't have good enough control to consistently pitch to a location to make shifting worth it.
Posted by Asleepinthecove
Lafayette
Member since Jan 2023
2195 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:39 am to
In theory that’s how it should work. When I played college ball back in 1988-1992, we would get signaled the pitch by the infielders and I would adjust my position in the outfield based on it being a fastball or off speed pitch. I would frequently play left handed hitters in short left field because not many hitters had opposite field power. I would frequently be in position to catch those poked fly balls that would routinely drop behind third or short.
Posted by redfish99
B.R.
Member since Aug 2007
19422 posts
Posted on 4/30/26 at 9:48 am to
It’ll rightfully be banned very soon.
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