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Posted on 8/13/24 at 2:52 pm to grizzlylongcut
Just my thoughts on all this:
1. BK is absolutely right to not massively overpay for average to even above average players just because we have a need there. True "Value" is not determined by what 1 team is willing to overpay for something. An NFL team could have drafted Ovie Oghoufo in the 1st round of the draft even though all other teams had him as a UDFA grade. Does that mean Ovie was really worth the same as Dallas Turner or Jared Verse? Obviously not, he was much worse than those EDGE players were.
2. We obviously didnt overpay for a guy like Damonic Williams for 1 very specific reason - it ruins the DT room if you take a guy like that and he doesnt even end up starting here. Guys like Guillory and Paez would be like WTF we're starting in front of this dude who just got a $1M check from our NIL fund and we are making a tenth of that. Walter Nolen, absolutely, cut him that million dollar check. A guy that was above average at TCU in the B12? Hell no. We probably got Suggs for practically nothing compared to what OU paid for Williams and I'd say there's more than a decent chance there's not nearly close enough to a huge difference to justify what Williams wanted.
3. To give BK some criticism I think they DID screw up big time not going after DTs in the FIRST portal window harder. I think it was clear to me they thought they could retain Smith or maybe even Wingo and it wouldnt be near this big of a need...but even after getting Bo Davis both said deuces along with Jefferson running out of eligibility and it left a GIGANTIC hole at DT we were left scrambling to figure out in the 2nd portal window...which is where you will get average to above average players requesting huge amounts of cash because simply put the supply is way more limited and teams that much more desperate. So I dont think Kelly had a good idea of what was going to transpire there without a DL coach and gambled on returning 1 big name and it simply didnt happen.
1. BK is absolutely right to not massively overpay for average to even above average players just because we have a need there. True "Value" is not determined by what 1 team is willing to overpay for something. An NFL team could have drafted Ovie Oghoufo in the 1st round of the draft even though all other teams had him as a UDFA grade. Does that mean Ovie was really worth the same as Dallas Turner or Jared Verse? Obviously not, he was much worse than those EDGE players were.
2. We obviously didnt overpay for a guy like Damonic Williams for 1 very specific reason - it ruins the DT room if you take a guy like that and he doesnt even end up starting here. Guys like Guillory and Paez would be like WTF we're starting in front of this dude who just got a $1M check from our NIL fund and we are making a tenth of that. Walter Nolen, absolutely, cut him that million dollar check. A guy that was above average at TCU in the B12? Hell no. We probably got Suggs for practically nothing compared to what OU paid for Williams and I'd say there's more than a decent chance there's not nearly close enough to a huge difference to justify what Williams wanted.
3. To give BK some criticism I think they DID screw up big time not going after DTs in the FIRST portal window harder. I think it was clear to me they thought they could retain Smith or maybe even Wingo and it wouldnt be near this big of a need...but even after getting Bo Davis both said deuces along with Jefferson running out of eligibility and it left a GIGANTIC hole at DT we were left scrambling to figure out in the 2nd portal window...which is where you will get average to above average players requesting huge amounts of cash because simply put the supply is way more limited and teams that much more desperate. So I dont think Kelly had a good idea of what was going to transpire there without a DL coach and gambled on returning 1 big name and it simply didnt happen.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:02 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
We should’ve paid up in the first window instead of waiting till the spring.
This. LSU banked on either Wingo or Smith returning and neither did. That put them in a spot where they with had to overpay or deal with what they had. In 3 years no one is going to care, but it could be the difference between making the playoff or not this year.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:08 pm to moneyg
quote:
Interpreted another way, “I’m not willing to spend the money needed to dig myself out of the hole I’m in”.
This is why you are not in charge…
Better to find another way to fix the DT problem than lose the other 83 guys who did not get unwarranted special treatment. If you think we lost a lot to the portal last wait til next year after you screwed everyone else on their NIL.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:16 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
This. LSU banked on either Wingo or Smith returning and neither did. That put them in a spot where they with had to overpay or deal with what they had. In 3 years no one is going to care, but it could be the difference between making the playoff or not this year.
We also didn’t have a Dline coach during that first window. So I doubt it was purely a choice that we didn’t land a guy in that window.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:21 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
We also didn’t have a Dline coach during that first window. So I doubt it was purely a choice that we didn’t land a guy in that window.
Davis was hired on Jan 10th, he was around plenty back then. Not near every top DT made a decision before then, including Walter Nolen.
Some guys made a decision before then, but the pot was definitely far from empty by the time we got Bo Davis on board.
Again I think the bigger issue was the coaches didnt expect to lose both Smith and Wingo, but they did and we were not active much at all in that Dec/Jan timeframe.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:25 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Davis was hired on Jan 10th, he was around plenty back then. Not near every top DT made a decision before then, including Walter Nolen
The portal closed January 2nd….
Nolen committed December 24th
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:26 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
The portal closed January 2nd….
Thats for people to ENTER the portal, not make a decision. There were plenty of DTs still out there in early January.
Edit - my bad on Nolen, for some reaosn on3 has a date of February for him not late Dec. Still, lots of guys were still available in January.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:27 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Thats for people to ENTER the portal, not make a decision.
I’m aware. A lot of those guys had destinations in mind before they ever entered. Nolen committed December 24th. 17 days before Davis was hired.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:31 pm to CottonWasKing
I get that and I’m not saying it’s easy, but guys are getting paid millions of dollars to figure it out and deal with it so I don’t necessarily feel bad for them.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:33 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Still, lots of guys were still available in January.
Portal guys move quick. Davis was two to three weeks late on these guys by the time he was hired. To have him indentify, target and land high profile talent in that limited window is damn near an impossible task. Not even taking into account that everyone is meddling and most of these guys have a good idea of where they’re going before they ever enter.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:36 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
Portal guys move quick. Davis was two to three weeks late on these guys by the time he was hired. To have him indentify, target and land high profile talent in that limited window is damn near an impossible task. Not even taking into account that everyone is meddling and most of these guys have a good idea of where they’re going before they ever enter.
Again I believe the bigger issue here was we werent even really trying at all in Dec/Jan at DT because Kelly I believe really didnt read the room well enough to think BOTH Wingo and Smith were gone. I think he truly thought we'd return 1 of the 2 (especially Smith after the season he had) and it just didnt happen.
We got commits from other guys with no coach, like Jyaire Brown, it was obvious we had to try at CB and they were even before Raymond was hired. We also got Jardin Gilbert before the new defensive staff with the lame duck staff still around in Dec.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:36 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
but guys are getting paid millions of dollars to figure it out and deal with it so I don’t necessarily feel bad for them.
I don’t “feel bad” for them but I can recognize a bad hand when I see it. Kelly bet on elite talent in the second portal and it wasn’t just him. Talking heads all over the place were hyping up how crazy the spring portal was going to be. That just never came to fruition.
Kelly bet and he lost. But if I had to pick between 1 or 2 one year rentals at DT or Bo Davis as my dline coach I’m picking Bo every time.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:42 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
We got commits from other guys with no coach, like Jyaire Brown
A DT the caliber of Jyaire Brown wouldn’t have moved the needle much. I think both Paez and Suggs are better DTs than Brown is a corner.
Gilbert is simply a case of coming back home.
quote:
Kelly I believe really didnt read the room well enough to think BOTH Wingo and Smith were gone.
I think that’s part of the reason for sure. No argument there.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:57 pm to grizzlylongcut
I think it's funny when fans talk about the "business sense" of things. You're not in charge of the finances.
What are you going to say if we lose to Bama because they ran all over us? At least we didn't spend that additional $500K?
What are you going to say if we lose to Bama because they ran all over us? At least we didn't spend that additional $500K?
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:00 pm to CottonWasKing
Sure, but he can also get criticized for making bad bets based on what talking heads were saying. LSU didn’t have one DT in the 2023 class. He got a bad hand, but he’s also not blame free for our situation at DT, that’s all.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:03 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
Sure, but he can also get criticized for making bad bets based on what talking heads were saying. LSU didn’t have one DT in the 2023 class. He got a bad hand, but he’s also not blame free for our situation at DT, that’s all.
Oh criticize away. I’m not trying to stop you but I also think context matters. It’s easy to say “We should’ve gotten more DTs” a whole lot of arguments start drying up when the reasoning for why we didn’t are laid out. And we did get a DT. We got a 5* in Dom McKinley
But yes Kelly gets blame for the state of the position group. I felt he could’ve made a better hire than Lindsey even before Lindsey had his medical problems. He should have brought someone like Pete in way earlier than he did. I feel like he should have moved quicker with showing his previous defensive staff the door. (Although that wouldn’t have gotten Davis hired any quicker). There’s plenty of things I lay at Kelly’s feet but it’s hard for me to blame him for the winter window and there’s nothing to blame him for in the spring window imo.
Most of it is just “the situation sucks” imo.
ETA: he didn’t make that decision based off of what talking heads were saying. Talking heads were saying it because that was the prevalent thought within the industry. Kelly is apart of the industry that was thinking it.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:08 pm to grizzlylongcut
I have zero confidence that a kid between 18 and 22 years old handed $1 million in cash will show up to perform day in and day out.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:18 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
Oh criticize away. I’m not trying to stop you but I also think context matters. It’s easy to say “We should’ve gotten more DTs” a whole lot of arguments start drying up when the reasoning for why we didn’t are laid out. And we did get a DT. We got a 5* in Dom McKinley
I’m done criticizing now, I’m in wait and see mode. It is what it is. If our defensive line is awful this year, then I’ll probably criticize him. If they aren’t, then I’ll give him praise. Dom was class of 2024 not 2023.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:32 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
Dom was class of 2024 not 2023.
Ah yea. Misread your post my bad.
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