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Potential SEC Scenarios and how it shapes the playoff
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:06 pm
SEC Standings Scenarios
Scenario 1:
A&M: 10-2, 7-1
LSU: 10-2, 7-1
Georgia 11-1, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2
There is no chance that 5 SEC teams will get in; potentially, only 3 teams will get in if Miami, Clemson, Iowa State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Pitt, and BYU keep winning.
Playoff spots (no particular order)
1 SEC champ
2 B10 champ
3 B12 champ
4 ACC champ
5 SEC
6 B10
7 SEC
8 B10
9 B12 runner up
10 ACC runner up
11 Notre Dame/B10/SEC
12 Group of 5
We need these B12 and ACC contenders to drop games. This season has been surprisingly chalky. The only big upsets have been Vandy over Alabama, Kentucky over Ole Miss, and Arkansas over Tennessee.
Clemson has three challenging remaining games: at VT, at Pitt, and vs SC.
I think Notre Dame loses to USC, but even with this, the SEC could end up with only three teams.
Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are virtual locks. If Indiana’s only loss is to Ohio State, they are probably in, taking away the SEC’s 4th spot.
It could be even crazier if Ole Miss beats Georgia. In this scenario:
A&M 10-2, 7-1
LSU 10-2, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Georgia 10-2, 6-2
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2
Ole Miss 10-2, 6-2
My point is that the season is shaping up for a few teams to be “screwed” and left out of the playoff.
Tennessee should be one of them
Standings Simulator
Scenario 1:
A&M: 10-2, 7-1
LSU: 10-2, 7-1
Georgia 11-1, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2
There is no chance that 5 SEC teams will get in; potentially, only 3 teams will get in if Miami, Clemson, Iowa State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Pitt, and BYU keep winning.
Playoff spots (no particular order)
1 SEC champ
2 B10 champ
3 B12 champ
4 ACC champ
5 SEC
6 B10
7 SEC
8 B10
9 B12 runner up
10 ACC runner up
11 Notre Dame/B10/SEC
12 Group of 5
We need these B12 and ACC contenders to drop games. This season has been surprisingly chalky. The only big upsets have been Vandy over Alabama, Kentucky over Ole Miss, and Arkansas over Tennessee.
Clemson has three challenging remaining games: at VT, at Pitt, and vs SC.
I think Notre Dame loses to USC, but even with this, the SEC could end up with only three teams.
Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are virtual locks. If Indiana’s only loss is to Ohio State, they are probably in, taking away the SEC’s 4th spot.
It could be even crazier if Ole Miss beats Georgia. In this scenario:
A&M 10-2, 7-1
LSU 10-2, 7-1
Texas 11-1, 7-1
Georgia 10-2, 6-2
Tennessee 10-2, 6-2
Ole Miss 10-2, 6-2
My point is that the season is shaping up for a few teams to be “screwed” and left out of the playoff.
Tennessee should be one of them
Standings Simulator
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:13 pm
13
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:15 pm to extremelsu
Highly unlikely that SEC gets less than 4
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:17 pm to extremelsu
After the guaranteed spots, its per CFP committee rankings. Not all of this even distribution crap you have planned out
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:18 pm to Ebridg3
thats why i said no particular order
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:19 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:22 pm to extremelsu
quote:
thats why i said no particular order
Right but you're selecting the teams based on distribution and record. That's AP era type stuff. The committee will probably have 4 maybe even 5 SEC teams in this.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:25 pm to Ebridg3
We’ll see but i think a 10 win SEC team will be left out
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:30 pm to extremelsu
All I gotta say is the current system is bullshite if they can’t get an LSU team in with our record and resume.
Idgaf what you think about USC and UCLA. We should be rewarded for having the balls to schedule those two on top of our SEC schedule.
For the record there will be way more chaos and there won’t be that many teams with those records.
Idgaf what you think about USC and UCLA. We should be rewarded for having the balls to schedule those two on top of our SEC schedule.
For the record there will be way more chaos and there won’t be that many teams with those records.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:37 pm to tigerbait2010
quote:
Idgaf what you think about USC and UCLA. We should be rewarded for having the balls to schedule those two on top of our SEC schedule. For the record there will be way more chaos and there won’t be that many teams with those records.
I agree and our SEC schedule ending up being difficult. That is why we are first or second in all the tiebreakers.
I have been waiting for chaos and these teams to lose but it hasnt happened; and their schedules are cake (talking about non SEC teams)
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:39 pm to Ebridg3
quote:absolutely. if they’re selecting the best teams. It’s not like the SEC ever makes the committee look stupid. It’s not like putting Lincoln-era Oklahoma in the playoffs to get their arse handed to them
The committee will probably have 4 maybe even 5 SEC teams in this.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:39 pm to tigerbait2010
As far as I am concerned, LSU can get in by winning the SECCG. Anything else is a crapshoot.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:44 pm to GeorgeWest
We’re pretty close to controlling our own destiny - would take some unfortunate combos to keep us out of Atlanta with only one conference loss.
Miami is still such a fraud, should have 2 losses
Miami is still such a fraud, should have 2 losses
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:46 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Highly unlikely that SEC gets less than 4
More likely than the SEC getting more than 4.
I don’t think anyone can really say it’s “highly unlikely” yet.
I think there’s a decent chance that you wind up with:
- 5 champs
- Notre Dame
- ACC championship loser (2 ACC total)
- 2 SEC at large (3 SEC total)
- 2 Big 10 at large (3 Big 10 total)
…with the final at-large spot going to one of the following:
- an 11-1 or 10-2 SEC team
- an 11-1 or 10-2 Big 10 team
- an 11-1 or 12-1 Big 12 team
The selection committee’s choice will obviously depend largely on the teams in question. I don’t think the Big 12 deserves an at-large bid but I don’t have a ton of confidence in the committee to snub an 11-1 or 12-1 “power 4” team either.
Regardless, acting like 4+ SEC teams are a lock right now seems premature. And it certainly looks like we could have 10-2 SEC teams left out.
The committee’s initial rankings next Tuesday should tell us a lot.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:54 pm to lostinbr
quote:need them mfers to lose again.
- Notre Dame
B12 doesn’t deserve two teams. Half the league was non power 5 last year
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:00 pm to extremelsu
quote:
need them mfers to lose again.
If they do drop another one I think they’re toast. That Northern Illinois loss is bad. I just don’t know how likely it is.
quote:
B12 doesn’t deserve two teams. Half the league was non power 5 last year
I agree but I could see it happening. Particularly if a 12-0 BYU or Iowa State loses a close game in the B12 championship.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 8:24 am to lostinbr
quote:i think USC has it in them to beat notre dame.
If they do drop another one I think they’re toast. That Northern Illinois loss is bad. I just don’t know how likely it is.
An 11-2 BYU/Iowa State or 10-3 LSU who gets in?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 8:36 am to extremelsu
I think the board needs to prepare themselves for the fact that we have Bama, Vandy, Fla, OK left and will lose at least one of those games. The USC loss was the early nail in the coffin for our season. The SEC has to much parody and is just to difficult.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:08 am to LCboi
quote:
The SEC has to much parody and is just to difficult.
Agree. With the additional teams, and now the playoffs, the SEC needs to drop its conference championship game.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:11 am to ForeverEllisHugh
quote:
Miami is still such a fraud, should have 2 losses
Ehhh we basically miracled our way to winning USCe and Ole Miss.
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:18 am to extremelsu
Who goes to the SEC Championship if LSU, UGA, and Texas all finish the season with 1 conference loss?
Posted on 10/29/24 at 9:19 am to extremelsu
quote:
11-2 BYU/Iowa State or 10-3 LSU who gets in
A 3 loss LSU team has no chance. Too many other good SEC teams that will have more compelling records.
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