Started By
Message
locked post

Polls say Tigers are better, but are they?

Posted on 10/1/09 at 6:50 am
Posted by Carl Dubois
Pacific Northwest
Member since Apr 2009
326 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 6:50 am
If I were in charge, you'd have two main reasons to look forward to this weekend. The first, the LSU football game Saturday at Georgia, is already atop your list, so my work there would be done.

Second? The next day, we'd finally get a look at the first college football polls of the season.

No more preseason polls, at least not from the USA Today and Harris voters, who comprise two-thirds of the BCS formula. They wouldn't get to vote until the first Sunday in October.

No more September polls.

Every year, September rankings are largely based on what happened the year before, the number of starters a team has left from the previous year's team, the promise (or lack) of impact freshmen and a hunch or five. Tradition plays a big role.

So, when the No. 9-ranked team loses to an unranked team in Week 2, we call it an "upset." Never mind that by season's end, we just might realize the unranked team was better than the No. 9-ranked team from start to finish.

LSU (4-0) is ranked No. 4. Georgia (3-1) is No. 14 in the USA Today coaches poll, No. 17 in the Harris poll and No. 18 in the AP poll.

If Georgia wins Saturday, will the Bulldogs move ahead of LSU in the rankings? I doubt it. There's too much of a gap. Yet, they'd both be 4-1, with Georgia winning the head-to-head matchup.

Georgia is a slight favorite. Who's to say the Bulldogs shouldn't already be ranked ahead of LSU? Conventional poll thinking says no, but conventional poll thinking isn't always right.

Conventional poll thinking says undefeated teams are better than one-loss teams, which are better than two-loss teams, and so forth. In September, what separates the undefeated teams is perception.

I don't think undefeated teams are automatically better than one-loss teams. I don't think this undefeated LSU team is better than Georgia right now.

I'm on record as being anti-poll in most circumstances, and especially before October. After the 2003 football season, which ended with LSU as the BCS national champion and USC as the AP national champion, I wrote a column saying the AP needed to get out of the championship business.

If the AP didn't disband its poll, I said, it should at least take steps to remove its poll from the BCS formula. The AP and many of its writers and broadcasters were covering news they were helping to create, and that was wrong.

My boss got a call from AP. He told me AP assured him it would continue with business as usual.

But a funny thing happened before the 2005 season: The AP, acting as if it suddenly realized the BCS had been using its poll in the BCS standings formula for years, sent a cease-and-desist letter basically saying, "Whoa. You're using our poll? Shame on you! Stop that now or we'll have to take legal action."

So, the BCS removed the AP poll and replaced it with a new poll, the Harris.

I'm going to be ahead of my time again and tell you eventually wisdom will prevail, and the BCS won't allow the USA Today coaches poll or the Harris poll to cast ballots until October. Sure, there aren't any BCS standings until October, a concession to the waiting I (and others) propose, but those standings are heavily influenced by the September polls, which are heavily influenced by the preseason polls.

Meanwhile, the computers that combine to represent the other one-third component of the BCS formula are clicking and crunching what happened in the first month of the season, so when you slap their output together with early October polls that are skewed for all the wrong reasons, you get bogus results.

Some who vote in preseason polls say they are ranking the teams where they think they should be to start the season. Others say they are predicting where they'll finish the season.

Most in the latter group usually defend their picks by saying things like, "Well, so-and-so has four tough road games, and they're going to lose at least three of them, so I've got them no higher than No. 20."

The problem with that is, if so-and-so doesn't lose that many, the same voters often don't go back and reverse-handicap the way they voted in the preseason. They simply "slot" their votes and bump the team up a notch or two at the time of those "upsets," never accounting for the ball and chain they tied to the team's wings in the preseason poll.

I should point out I know voters who do their due diligence. One, who works for a major newspaper, didn't drop Cal nearly as far this week as other voters did. He says he won't raise Cal as much as others might should Cal rebound with a strong season, because he never punished them severely in the first place.

He's trusting the work he did in the offseason, when he studied Cal (and other teams). He's not allowing himself to be swayed too much by one bad weekend (or, if it happens, one great weekend).

I know polls are supposed to be fun conversation pieces. When they began in the 1930s, they were a way for the AP to generate interest in college football. The polls began roughly 3-4 games into the season, but soon preseason polls became fashionable, and the college football world never looked back.

We need a glance in the rear-view mirror now.

Back then there weren't a handful of preseason magazines hitting newstands in May and June. There wasn't an Internet filled with enough statistical date, feature stories and talking points to keep the average person busy for the entire offseason. There weren't television channels specifically devoted to college sports -- and there weren't shows that talked daily about football during the preseason.

Generating preseason interest in college football? Uh, that job's been redefined, magnified, multiplied and upgraded far beyond anything polls accomplished in the 1930s, '40s, '50s and later.

The reason for their existence 50 years ago is a quaint piece of nostalgia today, not a reality. They're simply not needed, and worse, they are often a misguided influence upon regular-season polls that shape a system that is now Big Business.

Preseason polls have outgrown their usefulness, and college football has outgrown the "Hey, let's get people to pay attention to college football" mentality that led to their creation.

Does LSU owe its No. 4 ranking largely to preseason polls? You betcha. The Tigers are ranked on potential, and with the help of losses by other teams who were also ranked on potential.

Would a loss at Georgia this weekend prompt voters to drop the Tigers in the rankings? Of course.

Would LSU's ranking at that point be any different than it would have been if there were no preseason and September polls? I can't say for sure.

What I can say is a flawed system would be much better, year after year, without any polls until October. One day it will happen. I'm convinced of it.

A reporter asked Georgia coach Mark Richt if it made sense for LSU to be ranked so much higher than Georgia, yet be the underdog for this game.

“Who’s favored? We’re favored?” he said. ”I didn’t know we’re favored. I guess it’s just the home field –- I guess [that] is what they’re thinking. I think they think both teams are good football teams.”

Or, the reporter speculated, given that four top-10 teams lost last week, maybe there’s not much difference between No. 4 and No. 18 anyway?

“This time of year, you don’t know,” Richt said.

I agree. Rankings before October have little credibility, and Richt knows it. Read his other comments in the reporter's blog.

“We’ll find out Saturday," Richt said. "We’ll find out Saturday.”

I agree.

.

[i]Carl Dubois
has written or blogged about LSU sports since 1999. He's long been a conscientious objector with respect to v
Posted by rbdallas
Dallas, TX
Member since Nov 2007
10340 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 7:12 am to
quote:

Does LSU owe its No. 4 ranking largely to preseason polls? You betcha. The Tigers are ranked on potential, and with the help of losses by other teams who were also ranked on potential.


Once the polls start, it's kinda like waiting in line....
someone in front drops put, you are likely to move up...irrelevant of talent.
...it seems to get "slightly" better later in the season.
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
93755 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 7:58 am to
Carl, I demand you change your avatar. This isn't the "same ole' Saints" anymore.
Posted by Lugubrious
Member since Apr 2005
251 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 8:53 am to
quote:

The polls began roughly 3-4 games into the season, but soon preseason polls became fashionable, and the college football world never looked back.

We need a glance in the rear-view mirror now.


That's strong prose right there.

Excellent job!
Posted by TenTex
Member since Jan 2008
15949 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 8:58 am to
It sure would be nice to see this concept become a reality. However, the present system does put pressure on the PAC 10 and BIG TEN to add a conference championship game. A conference championship game gives that conference an unfair advantage to jump a team from a conference who does not have one. And yes, all this maddness of the past 50 years would be settled if we had a playoff system.
Posted by TopWaterTiger
Lake Charles, LA
Member since May 2006
10216 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:10 am to
I agree with the pre-season polling stuff. Look, the media ranked LSU # 11 preseason. Its not LSU's fault so many teams ranked ahead of them lost. So by default, LSU moves up. Now you've got media types saying LSU doesn't deserve the #4 ranking.....well WTF??? Its a double edged sword...you can't have it both ways!
Posted by bulmoss
Member since Oct 2006
300 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:12 am to
Media hype will never get rid of preseason polls, but a happy medium could be reached if the BCS polls waited to come out until the BCS rankings did.

The AP could continue to be the source on rankings for hype and TV purposes.
Posted by lsudiva2010
2014 Class B BBall Champions
Member since Jan 2008
19302 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:20 am to
quote:

Media hype will never get rid of preseason polls, but a happy medium could be reached if the BCS polls waited to come out until the BCS rankings did.

The AP could continue to be the source on rankings for hype and TV purposes.


I tend to agree that a happy medium could EASILY be reached. However, conventional wisdom rarely prevails in the realm of college football. We shall see both this Saturday and in the future as it pertains to polling.
Posted by Jake85
New Orleans, LA
Member since Sep 2009
549 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:27 am to
quote:

Conventional poll thinking says undefeated teams are better than one-loss teams, which are better than two-loss teams, and so forth. In September, what separates the undefeated teams is perception.

I don't think undefeated teams are automatically better than one-loss teams. I don't think this undefeated LSU team is better than Georgia right now.


I agree completely. The media is all over LSU right now for being ranked so high yet playing so poorly. However, LSU is in a unique position because of their schedule. If they win out the rest of the season, or even go 7-1, then they are deserving (depending on what teams in front of them do) of a top-5 ranking. If they end up losing 5 games, then they will do doubt drop to where they belong in the rankings. Point being, LSU is the last team that the media, or anyone else, needs to worry about being too highly ranked at the end of the year. LSU's schedule from here on out is unforgiving, and will tell the truth about where they deserve to be at the end of the season.
Posted by Rade
New Orleans
Member since May 2007
135 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:46 am to
If we wait until October should a strength of schedule component be added back to the poll?

Good read again Carl .....
Posted by tigerfan1
Member since Jan 2007
1762 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 10:27 am to
I disagree, not that preseason and early season polls have little value, but rather that they are going anywhere. People still love to see and talk about the preseason polls each year. This is a tradition that is not going away anytime soon.
Posted by EyeOfTheTiger311
Lafayette, LA
Member since Aug 2005
4345 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 10:45 am to
Did anyone else stop reading this halfway through?

Not your best read, Carl.

But I'm still a fan of your stuff.



Posted by LATIGERFAN
Member since Sep 2009
1316 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 10:50 am to
If Georgia wins, they will be ranked ahead of LSU. For people who don't like preseason polls, have imagined what it would be like if we had no rankings the first 4 or 5 weeks? LSU games would still be interesting to me, but the other games might not be as an anticipated.
Posted by Dupree4free
on a boat...
Member since Feb 2006
429 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 11:09 am to
First off, I have thought of the same exact scenario that Carl wrote about starting from the USC - LSU debacle and the following year with Auburn getting the shaft. Polls don't allow some schools to move up to as high as they should be, BCS or not only because other teams in their conference and other conferences are ranked too high, exactly like LSU is this year.

Mark my words, if we have 2 losses, we very well could end up a top 10 team when it is all said and done, only because of how high we are right now and who we would possibly lose to. On another note, if we lost those 2 games by 3 touchdowns each and look really bad, we could end up in the bottom of the top 25. Personally I think we will end up around 10th - 12th at the end of the bowl season.

quote:

If Georgia wins, they will be ranked ahead of LSU.


I don't agree with this in the fact that we might not drop that far down and Georgia might not jump that much if it is a really close game. Who knows what our offense and defense will bring but I like the comment RJ Jackson said on the radio this morning. He said the offense feels like they are going to have a breakout game. I have been thinking the same thing for a few games now. It seems like we are just missing one or two big plays to open the game up and put pressure on the opponent.

quote:

For people who don't like preseason polls, have imagined what it would be like if we had no rankings the first 4 or 5 weeks? LSU games would still be interesting to me, but the other games might not be as an anticipated.


Other games would still be interesting because ESPN and CBS would hype the games so much because it would be a "make or break" game to see if they will be in title contention once the polls do come out.

As far as the factor of strength of schedule being instituted, this would be part of the first polls and BCS in October only because you would have to take who played who and how the score ended up. It would put more importance on how teams played against an opponent instead of the final score and how they compared to the team ranked directly ahead and behind them.
Posted by TxTigerFan
Wills Point, Tx
Member since Sep 2003
130 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 11:27 am to
Another great article Carl
Posted by TexasSinger
Front Row
Member since Feb 2006
4480 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 11:36 am to
As a fan of college football since my momma's womb, and she was drinking plenty purple-n-gold kool-aid and dancing to "Hey Fightin Tiger" then too, can you imagine a world without polls? I can't. It is a part of the college football tradition and pageantry. Let's face it, the tradition and pageantry is what has a hold of me forever. I like pro football, but I LOVE college football, and the polls are part of it. Now, if we wait until October to unleash the polls, maybe it's better....maybe I like it just as good...maybe there is more suspense. One thing is for sure, preseason polls aren't going anywhere because it means revenue for media in June, July, and August. As a fan, it finally quenches my thirst for college football through the last miles of desert that is the offseason. I buy a preseason mag or two when passing through the airport, flying during the summer. I'm online reading what all these self-proclaimed experts think of the upcoming season because I may catch one, just one expert say something spicy about my Tigers. It is part of the game, and I eat it up like a tailgating spread on Saturday's at Death Valley.
This post was edited on 10/1/09 at 11:43 am
Posted by parrotdr
Cesspool of Rationalization
Member since Oct 2003
7516 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 11:46 am to
quote:

I should point out I know voters who do their due diligence. One, who works for a major newspaper, didn't drop Cal nearly as far this week as other voters did. He says he won't raise Cal as much as others might should Cal rebound with a strong season, because he never punished them severely in the first place.

He's trusting the work he did in the offseason, when he studied Cal (and other teams). He's not allowing himself to be swayed too much by one bad weekend (or, if it happens, one great weekend).


Yes he does his research, but isn't this the same problem? He's still NOT moving a team that lost (badly, I might add) to a team below it because of what he THOUGHT about the team in preseason research. Isn't performance on the field all that really matters?
Posted by ApexTiger
cary nc
Member since Oct 2003
53774 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 12:41 pm to
Its hard for me to imagine some of these other teams being better than LSU after our recruiting classes..either the rankings are bull, or we aren't being coached up
Posted by zztop1234
Denham Springs
Member since Aug 2008
3709 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 1:03 pm to
They have one more win then OU, Virginia Tech, USC, Ohio State just in top 10. Why shouldn't they be there.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15650 posts
Posted on 10/1/09 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

Polls say Tigers are better, but are they?

Nah.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 2Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram