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Posted on 10/23/23 at 10:14 pm to lsusa
quote:
1- AUTOMATICS - If a team meets this criteria they are in. Period. - undefeated SEC Champ - undefeated Big 10 Champ - undefeated ACC Champ
Undefeated Pac 12 champ would be automatic guaranteed
Posted on 10/23/23 at 10:22 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
If OSU BEATS MICHIGAN, then wins the big 10, I'd say a 1 loss Michigan and Ohio State could both get in.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 3:45 pm to lsusa
quote:
This does not matter to LSU if we don’t win out. That can’t be said enough. With that said, the easiest way to look at LSU’s path to making the playoff is by tiers, which are- 1- AUTOMATICS - If a team meets this criteria they are in. Period. - undefeated SEC Champ - undefeated Big 10 Champ - undefeated ACC Champ - undefeated PAC 12 champ * 2- ALMOST AUTOMATIC - If a team meets this criteria they are in unless there are 5 teams that meet the criteria total in category 1 & 2, which is highly unlikely - undefeated Big 12 champ - 1 loss SEC champ - 1 loss big 10 champ 3 - LETS PLAY THE FUED - this is where it gets muddled, but if you don’t have four in the first two groups, then you get a beauty contest. I’d say the chances are > 50% of at least one team needed from this group. The actual order is up in the air but the members of the tier are: - 1 loss ACC Champ - 1 loss PAC 12 Champ - 1 loss Big 12 Champ - 2 loss SEC Champ - 1 loss SEC non Champ - 1 loss Big 10 non Champ 4 - WE GOTTA INVITE SOMEONE - this is less of a “beauty” contest, and more of a “who has the least offensive flaws” contest - 2 loss conference champ (other than SEC) - 1 loss Big 12, PAC 12 or ACC non champion - 2 loss SEC or Big 10 non champion LSU’s only shot is obviously in group 3. * 10/28 Edit to put undefeated PAC 12 team as an automatic. The conference is better than the Bug 12 this year This post was edited on 10/28 at 3:30 pm
Editing the OP. Just pasting this hear to save it.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 4:50 pm to Gulf Coast Tiger
quote:
Am undefeated PAC 12 champ would be very deserving of a playoff bid
Oklahoma’s loss made this an absolute certainty.
But in my defense, even before
that all I was arguing was in the event of having FIVE undefeated P5 teams, I thought the fourth spot would be an argument between the PAC 12 and Big 12 cham
Posted on 10/28/23 at 4:59 pm to lsusa
The experts have toted the pac-12 as the best conference almost all year. Not that it matters anymore, but a comitee likely ranks an undefeated Washington team above undefeated the ACC or Big 12 team based on the scheduled vs ranked teams they had to beat to get there.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 6:15 pm to Mats86
This is very much true… undefeated Washington would have wins over many once or currently ranked top 10 teams. Think LSU in 19 we played almost all of the ranked or once ranked top ten teams that year. OK’s loss is huge for everyone with potential to steal a conference championship and possibly snipe a playoff spot. These late teams would show the committee a rising improved team from the beginning of the year.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 8:06 pm to TxWampus
In a wild scenario where there are 4, 2 loss teams in the SEC, with LSU winning the championship.
I think the SEC gets left out for the pac 12, 2 big 10 teams, and 1 acc team. So long as those teams finish with 1 loss.
LSU's only path is if USC can cannibalize the pac 12, and they only let michigan or osu in from the big 10.
I think the SEC gets left out for the pac 12, 2 big 10 teams, and 1 acc team. So long as those teams finish with 1 loss.
LSU's only path is if USC can cannibalize the pac 12, and they only let michigan or osu in from the big 10.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 9:24 pm to Tblock
quote:
In a wild scenario where there are 4, 2 loss teams in the SEC, with LSU winning the championship. I think the SEC gets left out for the pac 12, 2 big 10 teams, and 1 acc team. So long as those teams finish with 1 loss. LSU's only path is if USC can cannibalize the pac 12, and they only let michigan or osu in from the big 10.
That’s not LSU’s only path by far. They won’t leave the SEC champion out barring at this point barring three losses.
A 2 loss SEC Champion LSU > 1 loss Big 10 non champion Michigan.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 9:25 pm to lsusa
We may not want to admit it but Georgia is going to threepeat this year.
Posted on 10/28/23 at 9:33 pm to lsusa
quote:There’s a lot of scenarios where a 2 loss SEC champion is left out. You’re putting too much weight on the strength of the conference where it just simply does not exist this year.
They won’t leave the SEC champion out barring at this point barring three losses.
This post was edited on 10/28/23 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 10/28/23 at 9:52 pm to lsusa
quote:
If FSU is 13-0 ACC champion then that would swing things in LSUs favor. Yes, UGA would have one fewer loss but against a non- conference slate of UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech.
There’s no way UGA gets in after losing head to head vs LSU with that OOC slate.
Posted on 10/29/23 at 1:12 am to MOT
quote:
There’s a lot of scenarios where a 2 loss SEC champion is left out.
No, there aren’t really.
The are at most, four scenarios where a 2-loss SEC champion wouldn’t get it.
1- a one-loss non-big Ten Champion (Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State)
2- a one-loss Big 12 Champion (Texas/OU)
3- a one-loss non-SEC Champion (UGA or Ole Miss, which could happen with 3-way tie breaker)
4- a one-loss non-PAC 12 Champion (Washington)
Honestly, I would think LSU gets in the playoffs as SEC champ in most of those scenarios
quote:
You’re putting too much weight on the strength of the conference where it just simply does not exist this year.
People keep saying this, but tomorrow morning the SEC will have four of the top 13 teams in the polls with UGA, Alabama,
Ole Miss and LSU. Yes, there’s no big OOC win this year. But the rumors of the demise are greatly exaggerated.
This post was edited on 10/29/23 at 2:27 am
Posted on 10/29/23 at 2:01 am to lsusa
quote:
Ole Miss, which could happen with 3-way tie breaker)
Just replying to myself, but I think LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama could finish in a 3-way tie for first in the SEC West at 7-1
The tie Breaker would likely come down to SEC East opponents records:
LSU (Mizzou and Florida 6-3 a/o today)
Alabama (Tenn and Kentucky 5-5)
Ole Miss (UGA and Vandy 5-5)
Florida and Mizzou still play each other, so LSU’s pair is guaranteed at least seven wins. They both also play Arkansas. So, 9-7 or 10-6 pending UT-Mizzou
On the other hand, the likely max for Ole Miss pair is 7-9 with UGA beating 7-1 and Vandy 0-8.
Bama’s duo of UT (Mizzou, UGA and Vandy) and Kentucky (MSU, Bama, USC) is probably good for at least 8 wins. So 8-8/9-7 pending UT-Mizzou.
In a scenario where LSU and Bama’s opponents were 9-7, and Ole Miss’s were 7-9, I believe that would eliminate Ole Miss from the three way tie, making it a 2-way tie and giving LSU the west with h-2-h over Bama.
So LSU wins the SEC-C and is 11-2 vs Ole Miss at 11-1.
You could argue that Ole Miss win @UGa > LSU’s over UGA on neutral field, along with Ole Miss having the h2h.
LSU’s argument would be also having
road wins over 10-2 Bama and 10-2 Mizzou, along with the SEC Title.
In that scenario, I think ultimately the SEC Title is the deciding factor
Posted on 10/29/23 at 8:09 am to lsusa
quote:Its not just that there’s no big win, the conference has a losing record against other P5 conferences and it isn’t just because of the bottom of the league dragging everyone else down. The conference has looked bad in the high profile games where it usually sets it’s self apart from the rest.
there’s no big OOC win this year.
Posted on 10/29/23 at 8:31 am to TopWaterTiger
So an undefeated champ of the 5th conference has to be in your tier 2, right?
Posted on 10/29/23 at 9:48 am to lsusa
AGAIN, a 1 loos PAC 12 champ is IN. Look at the freaking conference and what voters believe as power. The question is if a 1 loss ACC champ or Big 12 champ is in. I believe those 2 would be the last.
0 or 1 loss SEC
0 or 1 loss Big 10
0 or 1 loss PAC 12
0 or 1 loss ACC or Big 12.
It isn’t really a tiered bull crap. It is a combination of these 4.
0 or 1 loss SEC
0 or 1 loss Big 10
0 or 1 loss PAC 12
0 or 1 loss ACC or Big 12.
It isn’t really a tiered bull crap. It is a combination of these 4.
Posted on 10/29/23 at 9:52 am to MOT
quote:
There’s a lot of scenarios where a 2 loss SEC champion is left out. You’re putting too much weight on the strength of the conference where it just simply does not exist this year.
The SEC is weak.
Posted on 10/29/23 at 11:16 am to Tiger1988
quote:
AGAIN, a 1 loos PAC 12 champ is IN. Look at the freaking conference and what voters believe as power. The question is if a 1 loss ACC champ or Big 12 champ is in. I believe those 2 would be the last. 0 or 1 loss SEC 0 or 1 loss Big 10 0 or 1 loss PAC 12 0 or 1 loss ACC or Big 12.
The PAC 12 got a lot of hype early in the season, but two of the bigger drivers or that hype - Colorado and Caleb Williams - have fallen off. There were 4 Pac 12 teams in the AP top 13 on the 10-22 poll, and two of them lost. Washington will continue to be the lowest ranked of the five P5 undefeateds.
Texas will likely be ranked number 6 today. So I’d go with the wisdom that if Washington loses say, next week, Texas will jump them and would stay ahead as long as they win out. In that scenario if the Big 10 Champ, FSU and UGA are undefeated, then the one loss PAC 12 champ could be left out. That’s not to say that the committee won’t change its mind.
quote:
It isn’t really a tiered bull crap. It is a combination of these 4.
I’m sorry you don’t like my usage of tiers, but it was a simply way to divide the teams up.
There seems to be universal agreement at least that an undefeated SEC or Big 10 teams would 100% be in
At the point where each of the five P5 Conferences still had an undefeated team, then yes someone was going to be left out and it sure wasn’t the SEC or Big 10….and there was disagreement whether it would be the Big 12/Pac-12/ACC ergo the creation of a second tier. As there can be only 4 now, that tier is eliminated.
Posted on 10/30/23 at 10:46 am to Tiger1988
quote:
The SEC is weak.
As evidenced by the FIVE SEC schools in the top 14 of the AP Poll this week. (6 in the top 19)
Btw, reported in another thread-
quote:
ESPN's updated playoff predictor going into week 10 now says LSU has a 60% shot at making the playoffs if they finished 11-2.
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