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Playoff Pecking Order and LSU
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:10 am
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:10 am
This does not matter to LSU if we don’t win out. That can’t be said enough.
With that said, the easiest way to look at LSU’s path to making the playoff is by tiers, which are-
1- AUTOMATICS - If a team meets this criteria they are in. Period.
- undefeated SEC Champ
- undefeated Big 10 Champ
- undefeated ACC Champ
- undefeated PAC 12 champ *
**2- ALMOST AUTOMATIC - If a team meets this criteria they are in unless there are 5 teams that meet the criteria total in category 1 & 2, which is highly unlikely.
** These teams are now automatic as there are only four teams in group 1, and a team in this category would mean three were only 3
- 1 loss SEC champ
- 1 loss big 10 champ
3 - LETS PLAY THE FUED - this is where it gets muddled, but if you don’t have four in the first two groups, then you get a beauty contest. I’d say the chances are > 50% of at least one team needed from this group.
The actual order is up in the air but the members of the tier are:
- 1 loss ACC Champ
- 1 loss PAC 12 Champ
- 1 loss Big 12 Champ
- 2 loss SEC Champ
- 1 loss SEC non Champ
- 1 loss Big 10 non Champ
4 - WE GOTTA INVITE SOMEONE - this is less of a “beauty” contest, and more of a “who has the least offensive flaws” contest
- 2 loss conference champ (other than SEC)
- 1 loss Big 12, PAC 12 or ACC non
champion
- 2 loss SEC or Big 10 non champion
LSU’s only shot is obviously in group 3.
* 10/28 Edit to put undefeated PAC 12 team as an automatic. The conference is better than the Bug 12 this year
** 10-28 edit #2 groups 1 & 2 have effectively merged
With that said, the easiest way to look at LSU’s path to making the playoff is by tiers, which are-
1- AUTOMATICS - If a team meets this criteria they are in. Period.
- undefeated SEC Champ
- undefeated Big 10 Champ
- undefeated ACC Champ
- undefeated PAC 12 champ *
**2- ALMOST AUTOMATIC - If a team meets this criteria they are in unless there are 5 teams that meet the criteria total in category 1 & 2, which is highly unlikely.
** These teams are now automatic as there are only four teams in group 1, and a team in this category would mean three were only 3
- 1 loss SEC champ
- 1 loss big 10 champ
3 - LETS PLAY THE FUED - this is where it gets muddled, but if you don’t have four in the first two groups, then you get a beauty contest. I’d say the chances are > 50% of at least one team needed from this group.
The actual order is up in the air but the members of the tier are:
- 1 loss ACC Champ
- 1 loss PAC 12 Champ
- 1 loss Big 12 Champ
- 2 loss SEC Champ
- 1 loss SEC non Champ
- 1 loss Big 10 non Champ
4 - WE GOTTA INVITE SOMEONE - this is less of a “beauty” contest, and more of a “who has the least offensive flaws” contest
- 2 loss conference champ (other than SEC)
- 1 loss Big 12, PAC 12 or ACC non
champion
- 2 loss SEC or Big 10 non champion
LSU’s only shot is obviously in group 3.
* 10/28 Edit to put undefeated PAC 12 team as an automatic. The conference is better than the Bug 12 this year
** 10-28 edit #2 groups 1 & 2 have effectively merged
This post was edited on 10/28/23 at 3:52 pm
20
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:18 am to lsusa
SEC Champ isn't automatic right now.
UGA is very vulnerable right now. There's a good chance the SEC runner up is 2 losses minimum, possibly 3.
It's likely we see two B1G teams advance just like last year. FSU likely walks into CFP with an undefeated season.
Big Ten might steal a spot as well.
UGA is very vulnerable right now. There's a good chance the SEC runner up is 2 losses minimum, possibly 3.
It's likely we see two B1G teams advance just like last year. FSU likely walks into CFP with an undefeated season.
Big Ten might steal a spot as well.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:19 am to lsusa
Would be a great year for a 12T playoff
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:21 am to lsusa
Probably a one loss UGA TEAM, even if that loss is to LSU who wins out, gets in before we do. We just shot ourselves in the foot at Oxford.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:32 am to bulldogger
Uga might lose to Missouri
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:39 am to lsusa
Your tiers are off from the get go.
Any power 5 undefeated conf champ is an Automatic
Almost automatic are the one loss conf champs.
Then everyone else.
Any power 5 undefeated conf champ is an Automatic
Almost automatic are the one loss conf champs.
Then everyone else.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:42 am to BilbeauTBaggins
quote:
SEC Champ isn't automatic right now.
No offense, but you are smoking crack if you believe there is any way an undefeated SEC Champ (which would be two-time defending national champ UGA) is not a lock for the playoffs.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:45 am to TopWaterTiger
quote:
Your tiers are off from the get go. Any power 5 undefeated conf champ is an Automatic Almost automatic are the one loss conf champs.
No, because if there are FIVE undefeated power five teams, then one team gets left out.
Ergo “an undefeated power five champ is not automatic”.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:53 am to lsusa
This is not correct from the start. A 1 loss PAC 12 team as is OU from the Big 12 if they win out. If anything MAYBE a 1 loss UGA gets in. The PAC 12 is a better conference top to bottom than the SEC this season. The Big 10 champ is in. The battle will be between the ACC and SEC for the last spot.
This isn’t 2011.
This isn’t 2011.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:54 am to lsusa
That loss to Ole Miss eliminated us from any playoff discussion....
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:56 am to cphill
They will lose two more games anyway, so I don’t even understand why we’re having this discussion. There are no defensive backs left and the next three teams have really good defenses. Ergo, a fricking loss is inevitable.
This post was edited on 10/22/23 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 10/22/23 at 11:56 am to bulldogger
quote:
Probably a one loss UGA TEAM, even if that loss is to LSU who wins out, gets in before we do. We just shot ourselves in the foot at Oxford.
In the scenario where LSU wins out and beats undefeated UGA, I think it comes down to the record of FSU.
If FSU is 13-0 ACC champion then that would swing things in LSUs favor. Yes, UGA would have one fewer loss but against a non- conference slate of UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 12:25 pm to Tiger1988
quote:
A 1 loss PAC 12 team
If you have undefeated teams from the SEC, BiG 10, Big 12 and ACC then no, a 1-loss PAC 12 team is not in.
quote:
The battle will be between the ACC and SEC for the last spot.
You really believe that 2-time defending national champion UGA riding a 30-game winning streak would not be an absolute lock for the four team playoff ?
quote:
as is OU from the Big 12 if they win out
If you have undefeated Georgia, undefeated Big 10 Champ, undefeated Florida State and undefeated Washington as well - which do you believe that Oklahoma would be a LOCK to get in over?
You have already intimated that you think the PAC 12 > Big 12.
You state the Big 10 champion is in.
I’ve pointed out the absurdity of claiming that UGA would not be in.
So that makes it a FSU vs OU battle for the fourth spot - which I’ll grant could be an argument - though I’d say FSU stepping OOC to play LSU and Florida gives them
a clear edge over OU playing Arkansas State, Tulsa and SMU.
quote:
This is not correct from the start.
The start is that undefeated SEC and Big 10 champions are locks, and that is absolutely correct.
If you want to argue the Pac 12 champion over the ACC champion being automatic,
then fair enough. Perhaps both teams belong in the second tier
Posted on 10/22/23 at 12:31 pm to lsusa
quote:
No offense, but you are smoking crack if you believe there is any way an undefeated SEC Champ (which would be two-time defending national champ UGA) is not a lock for the playoffs.
You're smoking some good meth if you think UGA has done anything this season to prove they're not only #1 but a shoe in for the SEC Championship.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 12:45 pm to BilbeauTBaggins
quote:
You're smoking some good meth if you think UGA has done anything this season to prove they're not only #1 but a shoe in for the SEC Championship.
You’re comparing apples to oranges. This thread is not talking about “how good I think teams A, B and C are” or whether I think UGA will go undefeated.
This thread is about the hypothetical pecking order of teams, meaning IF UGA is undefeated and SEC champion they will be a lock to get in the playoffs.
There is plenty of room for debate there. I would agree with you that, for example, the way UGA struggled with Auburn it makes the chances of an upset against Mizzou or Ole Miss look better, and the UF and UT games are certainly not gimmies.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 12:58 pm to lsusa
It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. If Mizzou beats UGA and LSU wins out, there's a real possibility that the SEC gets left out of the CFP this year.
Posted on 10/22/23 at 1:00 pm to lsusa
quote:
1- AUTOMATICS - If a team meets this criteria they are in. Period.
- undefeated SEC Champ
- undefeated Big 10 Champ
- undefeated ACC Champ
You're already wrong. An undefeated pac 12 champ is in this year. Also the SEC lost too many nonconference games to get 1 loss teams not named UGA in over conference champs
Posted on 10/22/23 at 1:02 pm to lsusa
quote:
If you have undefeated teams from the SEC, BiG 10, Big 12 and ACC then no, a 1-loss PAC 12 team is not in.
You pointed this bull shite out in Tiers in relationship to LSU, which is what this board is about. There is no plausible scenario that LSU will get in.
The PAC 12 has a better conference than the Big 10. The Big 10 has a better conference than the SEC and the Big 12.
The ONLY team that will get in will be an undefeated UGA. A 1 loss UGA to say a 2 loss LSU is out of the Top 4. Even a 1 loss Bama is not getting in because of how bad the SEC is this season if everything stays the same.
UGA is obviously in if they run the table. If UGA loses, it’ll be out.
Washington is in if they run the table or first 1 loss.
Michigan / tOSU or first 1 loss
OU is in if they run the table.
FSU is in if they run the table.
Washington > Bama if both end up with 1 loss because of Washington’s SOS
Posted on 10/22/23 at 1:07 pm to bulldogger
quote:
Probably a one loss UGA TEAM, even if that loss is to LSU who wins out, gets in before we do
I don't think so. Everyone knows this UGA team isn't all that great. They're ranked where they are because of their winning streak and their SOS is too shitty to overcome a loss if teams like FSU, OU, Washington, and OSU/UM win out. The SEC likely gets left out in that scenario. We would need some help, but I can't see UGA getting in over us if we win out and beat them in Atlanta. Maybe if they absolutely demolish Ole Miss, but otherwise the committee would have to hold a week 1 loss to FSU against us when UGA didn't play anyone
Posted on 10/22/23 at 1:08 pm to lsusa
quote:there’s no doubt in my mind at all the playoff committee would want heisman winner JD in the playoffs over Georgia if LSU beat them and finished 11-2. They won’t reward Georgia for that weak schedule they played. They always get it right and they are smart enough to realize Ball State and UTM are not the same as starting your season against a 13-0 FSU and they won’t penalize LSU for that loss in the head to head discussion of LSU-UGA. LSU having just beat Georgia in this scenario would get the nod over Georgia 100%
In the scenario where LSU wins out and beats undefeated UGA, I think it comes down to the record of FSU.
If FSU is 13-0 ACC champion then that would swing things in LSUs favor. Yes, UGA would have one fewer loss but against a non- conference slate of UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB and Georgia Tech.
Now the problem is all the undefeated teams in the other conferences that LSU would not be in over.
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