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Path to Playoffs
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:19 pm
I know many will say unlikely, but curious to know what is ideal (other us winning out) to play out in the next few weeks to give us the best playoff hopes. Who should we be rooting for in the next few weeks
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:19 pm to chazzzz4
A. We win
B. Teams ahead of us lose
It’s not that complicated
B. Teams ahead of us lose
It’s not that complicated
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:25 pm to chazzzz4
Win out. That gets us 3/4 there.
Root for: Georgia, Alabama
Root against: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State.
Root for: Georgia, Alabama
Root against: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Iowa, Oregon, Ohio State.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:26 pm to chazzzz4
We win out.
Hope the Big 12 only gets one team in.
Hope the ACC only gets one team in.
Cheer for more chaos in the Big Ten.
Oh and always pull against Notre Dame.
Hope the Big 12 only gets one team in.
Hope the ACC only gets one team in.
Cheer for more chaos in the Big Ten.
Oh and always pull against Notre Dame.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:26 pm to Decatur
This, although I don’t think we have to worry about Ohio State and Ole Miss.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:28 pm to chazzzz4
We win and Ole Miss drops one more game. That will pretty much do it. There's an argument we could jump Ole Miss even with the same record just due to SOS given the 2 top 10 teams we'd have to beat to get there. See Alabama and Tennessee's current rankings if you don't believe that's a possibility.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:38 pm to Tifway419
From Claude:
LSU doesn't need every game on the root-for list to go its way. The chance of all of them happening is only about 0.3%. What it needs is to win out, plus the normal amount of late-season losses by other teams, which usually comes. If LSU finishes 9-3, it made the playoff in about 79% of my 200,000 simulated seasons. Its overall chance is about 21%, close to ESPN FPI's 22.4%.
How much help LSU needs (if it finishes 9-3)
I tracked 11 bubble teams to see how many lose at least one more game:
Bubble teams that lose again How often LSU's playoff chance
5 or fewer ~12% ~60%
6 19% 70%
7 (the most common result) 26% 77%
8 24% 85%
9 or more 19% 91%+
In none of the simulations did all 11 teams win out.
Results worth the most to LSU
• Kentucky loses again. This happens 92% of the time and raises LSU's chance by 12 points (80% vs. 67%).
• BYU loses again. 55% likely, +12 points.
• South Carolina loses again. 93% likely, +10 points.
• Houston loses again. 67% likely, +9 points.
• Texas Tech loses a regular-season game. 72% likely, +8 points.
• Iowa loses again (59%) or Oregon loses again (38%). About +7 points each.
• Wake Forest loses (64%) or Miami wins the ACC title (67%). About +6 points each.
• Utah wins the Big 12 title. 61% likely, +4 points. An upset winner would take an automatic bid while Utah could still get an at-large spot.
• Ole Miss, Ohio State or USC losing helps very little (2–3 points), because a 9-3 LSU usually passes them anyway.
This Saturday's games to watch
Each one, if it goes LSU's way, adds about 2–7 points to its 9-3 odds:
• Oklahoma State beats Texas Tech: 47%
• Florida beats Kentucky: 44%
• SMU beats Wake Forest: 40%
• Oklahoma beats Ole Miss: 40%
• Baylor beats BYU: 26%
• Michigan beats Oregon: 19%
LSU doesn't need every game on the root-for list to go its way. The chance of all of them happening is only about 0.3%. What it needs is to win out, plus the normal amount of late-season losses by other teams, which usually comes. If LSU finishes 9-3, it made the playoff in about 79% of my 200,000 simulated seasons. Its overall chance is about 21%, close to ESPN FPI's 22.4%.
How much help LSU needs (if it finishes 9-3)
I tracked 11 bubble teams to see how many lose at least one more game:
Bubble teams that lose again How often LSU's playoff chance
5 or fewer ~12% ~60%
6 19% 70%
7 (the most common result) 26% 77%
8 24% 85%
9 or more 19% 91%+
In none of the simulations did all 11 teams win out.
Results worth the most to LSU
• Kentucky loses again. This happens 92% of the time and raises LSU's chance by 12 points (80% vs. 67%).
• BYU loses again. 55% likely, +12 points.
• South Carolina loses again. 93% likely, +10 points.
• Houston loses again. 67% likely, +9 points.
• Texas Tech loses a regular-season game. 72% likely, +8 points.
• Iowa loses again (59%) or Oregon loses again (38%). About +7 points each.
• Wake Forest loses (64%) or Miami wins the ACC title (67%). About +6 points each.
• Utah wins the Big 12 title. 61% likely, +4 points. An upset winner would take an automatic bid while Utah could still get an at-large spot.
• Ole Miss, Ohio State or USC losing helps very little (2–3 points), because a 9-3 LSU usually passes them anyway.
This Saturday's games to watch
Each one, if it goes LSU's way, adds about 2–7 points to its 9-3 odds:
• Oklahoma State beats Texas Tech: 47%
• Florida beats Kentucky: 44%
• SMU beats Wake Forest: 40%
• Oklahoma beats Ole Miss: 40%
• Baylor beats BYU: 26%
• Michigan beats Oregon: 19%
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:38 pm to iamandykeim
Texas will stay ahead of us unless we blow them out
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:39 pm to FriscoTiger
No lol we will be highest ranked 3 loss team next week if we beat #6 Texas
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:39 pm to chazzzz4
Dream on fool
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:41 pm to chazzzz4
I can't help but think if things started to go LSU's way that Sankey wouldn't make some calls to committee members , you know suggesting another SEC team might be more worthy. Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:43 pm to chazzzz4
This week
SMU beats #13 Wake Forest
#18 USC beats #9 Indiana
Florida beats #11 Kentucky
#25 OK State beats #12 Texas Tech
Next week
UGA beats #17 SCe
Missouri beats #11 UK
SMU beats #13 Wake Forest
#18 USC beats #9 Indiana
Florida beats #11 Kentucky
#25 OK State beats #12 Texas Tech
Next week
UGA beats #17 SCe
Missouri beats #11 UK
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:44 pm to chazzzz4
Win and pray
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:49 pm to chazzzz4
1. Win out--every path starts here
2. Arch and Sark caught in man on man lovefest today and UT disbands football in response
3. RJ Luis Jr starts this week for the Utah Jazz and next week for LSU
4. Sankey is deported by Trump for being a secret Mexican which is a very real thing
4. Josh Heupel chokes on a McRib, TN hires BK, TN loses out
5. Ark beats Notre Dame this week, Miami next then falls to LSU 72-2 (safety)
6. We are safely in the playoff
2. Arch and Sark caught in man on man lovefest today and UT disbands football in response
3. RJ Luis Jr starts this week for the Utah Jazz and next week for LSU
4. Sankey is deported by Trump for being a secret Mexican which is a very real thing
4. Josh Heupel chokes on a McRib, TN hires BK, TN loses out
5. Ark beats Notre Dame this week, Miami next then falls to LSU 72-2 (safety)
6. We are safely in the playoff
Posted on 11/12/26 at 2:58 pm to iamandykeim
I don’t see literally any scenario where we jump Ole Miss or Kentucky if we all finish 9-3.
They have the head to head.
They have the head to head.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 3:13 pm to JimTiger72
ESPN CFP indicator says with winning out, LSU has a 54% chance of getting in and Texas losing to LSU and beating ARK and Aggies has a 80
% chance.
% chance.
Posted on 11/12/26 at 3:19 pm to Old1937
quote:hate to pick on your username but do you not know how to internet? This is unequivocally false. What is the point of you jumping into every playoff thread on this forum and spreading misinformation?
ESPN CFP indicator says with winning out, LSU has a 54% chance of getting in
ETA I see what you did old man. You plugged into the simulator us losing a 4th game in the SECCG
Lesson learned, don’t pay any attention to people saying we’re not making the playoff if we win out. They’re as sharp as this guy…
This post was edited on 11/12/26 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 11/12/26 at 3:39 pm to Decatur
Well I am pretty sure every team on the right side of your list were teams I picked to win this week…so, good chance they all lose…
Posted on 11/12/26 at 3:44 pm to chazzzz4
JFC STOP MAKING THREADS. THIS TEAM ISNT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS
Posted on 11/12/26 at 3:51 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Still shows Texas getting in over you so
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