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re: Official MLB draft thread
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:01 pm to metafour
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:01 pm to metafour
quote:
Passing on a pitcher is never a "huge mistake".
Sure it is. If you think there is a pitcher that can become an absolute shut down ace for your team for years, then it can be a mistake to pass on that.
2
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:03 pm to metafour
quote:
Passing on a pitcher is never a "huge mistake".
Yea I mean a top line starter at most only effects every 4th game but I’d still want Skenes personally, but you are right.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:06 pm to LSU316
Looks like Langford is the #1 pick at below slot
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:08 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Looks like Langford is the #1 pick at below slot
Does this mean you will become a Florida fan now, and leave this board forever? Please tell me that's what it means.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:09 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Yes
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:10 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Yes
Awesome. You would fit in perfectly with Florida. Their level of stupidity is right up your alley.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:30 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Sure it is. If you think there is a pitcher that can become an absolute shut down ace for your team for years, then it can be a mistake to pass on that.
The demographic is extremely dependent on luck and navigating health risks. If you look at the best starters in baseball, they come from all over the place - so the idea that Pittsburgh can't get an "ace" without drafting one first overall is silly.
Just two years ago the Rangers drafted Jack Leiter 2nd overall and he hasn't even figured out AA. A few years before that you had Casey Mize go #1 overall and he hasn't amounted to anything for the Tigers. Meanwhile in 2020 the Braves landed Spencer Strider in the 4th round out of Clemson and he's one of the best starters in baseball.
Yes, Skenes is a better prospect than both Mize and Leiter, but that hardly makes him a guarantee. Especially given how hard he throws. In this draft the Pirates have 3 options who all have legitimate #1 ability - its not wrong at all to go with the hitter who you at least presents less catastrophic injury risk.
I think that statement would hold more weight in a draft class wherein Skenes is head and shoulders above whoever the #2 prospect is; but that simply isn't the case this year.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:44 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
But it can also be a Mark Prior situation
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:49 pm to Squedunk
quote:
Martin Maldanado
Yes, he’s a terrible hitter and great catcher. Him playing for the Astros and them being in the playoffs every year, I knew who he was, but just looked him up. He’s 6’ 230. Alex is listed as 5’11” 185, but is probably closer to 5’9”. His pop time and arm are elite for a college catcher, but I don’t know how they measure up to big league catchers.
Even if they do, he’s just not big enough to take the beating of being an every day MLB catcher imo. And he’ll be 23 in August, so he’s not a really young guy that will be able to add a bunch of good weight. I’d contend that the weight he lost this year greatly contributed to how good he was defensively. He was super light on his feet and was able to save a ton of wild pitches that a heavier guy wouldn’t have. So even if he had the frame to add good weight—I don’t think he does—, it’d probably take a bit away from what he does best.
And as terrible a hitter as Maldonado is—and there were articles a couple years ago suggesting that he was not only the worst every day hitter in baseball, but maybe the worst of all time. But still, he’s got a .206 career BA over 13 years. I think Alex would struggle to hit .100 with a wood bat against big league pitching. And Maldonado has a disgusting SLG%, but he’s managed to hit 102 home runs. I don’t know that Alex could hit 5 in 13 years.
Now, I absolutely believe that he’s good enough to be a backup catcher, catching maybe once a week. I don’t think his size would prevent that at all. But the game is so offensive now, that teams want their backups to be able to give them something offensively off the bench. They’d prefer a slightly lesser defensive guy as long as he was a threat to maybe run into one every now and again.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:50 pm to Hot Carl
shite, I hate when I’m forced to “shite” on one of our own. Especially someone like Alex. I swear that’s not what I’m doing at all. Dude started for 2 years and played great defense for us. But Jay brought in 3 freshman catchers to replace him—all far superior hitters the day they stepped on campus. It would have been easy to either transfer or sulk.
But no, Alex put his head down, worked his arse off, lost weight, and got better both offensively and defensively. And he could have sulked twice this year. 1st, when Neal became the every day starter and started almost every game until he got hurt. But Alex kept working and was ready. Then Travinski got in the lineup and went crazy and couldn’t get out of the lineup until he got hurt in Omaha. But again, Alex was ready, and caught every inning of 4 games in 4 days (I think). And got a few really big knocks. Just tremendous character from him. Had he handled it any other way, we literally wouldn’t have won the NC.
I could be wrong. I HOPE I’m wrong. If it were 1985, I would be wrong. I just think his size really limits him and gives him a really low ceiling, and that ceiling is likely not good enough to be a major league catcher in today’s game. But clubs need 8-10 catchers in their farm system, so there may be a place for him in pro ball. And he could maybe parlay a minor league career into becoming a bullpen catcher. Or a manager. And if that’s his goal, I hope like hell he achieves it.
I know baseball, but I will certainly concede I’m no scout. I just think he’s a really weird/unique prospect to predict how clubs view him. Maybe nobody picks him up. Maybe somebody takes him in the 15th round and thinks at worst he can handle catching high velo—he’s proven that—and can be a big asset helping develop young pitchers, and maybe eventually the bat does come around.
WaaaayTL;DR—He’s so different from the prototypical catcher in 2023 that I think he’s a super interesting prospect and really have no idea how he’ll be viewed. But I will be pulling like hell for him no matter what.
But no, Alex put his head down, worked his arse off, lost weight, and got better both offensively and defensively. And he could have sulked twice this year. 1st, when Neal became the every day starter and started almost every game until he got hurt. But Alex kept working and was ready. Then Travinski got in the lineup and went crazy and couldn’t get out of the lineup until he got hurt in Omaha. But again, Alex was ready, and caught every inning of 4 games in 4 days (I think). And got a few really big knocks. Just tremendous character from him. Had he handled it any other way, we literally wouldn’t have won the NC.
I could be wrong. I HOPE I’m wrong. If it were 1985, I would be wrong. I just think his size really limits him and gives him a really low ceiling, and that ceiling is likely not good enough to be a major league catcher in today’s game. But clubs need 8-10 catchers in their farm system, so there may be a place for him in pro ball. And he could maybe parlay a minor league career into becoming a bullpen catcher. Or a manager. And if that’s his goal, I hope like hell he achieves it.
I know baseball, but I will certainly concede I’m no scout. I just think he’s a really weird/unique prospect to predict how clubs view him. Maybe nobody picks him up. Maybe somebody takes him in the 15th round and thinks at worst he can handle catching high velo—he’s proven that—and can be a big asset helping develop young pitchers, and maybe eventually the bat does come around.
WaaaayTL;DR—He’s so different from the prototypical catcher in 2023 that I think he’s a super interesting prospect and really have no idea how he’ll be viewed. But I will be pulling like hell for him no matter what.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 12:57 pm to LSU316
quote:
I mean if I’m a Pirates fan and I can take Langford and save some pool money to get a top line pitcher with their next pick….I’d be in.
I wouldn’t do it, but I guess I can understand why they would. Langford may have a slightly higher offensive ceiling than Crews. At least power wise. But he’s also got a much lower floor. Dylan may have the highest floor of any college player I’ve ever seen. I’d be surprised if he’s not starting in a big league outfield sometime in ‘24, if not Opening Day. And his defensive ceiling is infinitely higher than Langford’s.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:17 pm to metafour
quote:
Yes, Skenes is a better prospect than both Mize and Leiter, but that hardly makes him a guarantee.
He’s a WAAAAAAY better prospect than those 2. And he’s just about as close to a guarantee as there is. Maybe ever was. The risk isn’t him not being great, it’s injury. Pittsburgh would have him for 6 years before he left for free agency or was traded (now that is where they could possibly get a top end guy). But if, God forbid, he blows out his elbow and has to have TJ, they lose him for 2 of those 6 years.
Somebody alluded to it here or in another thread, but some site listed the top 10 pitching prospects in the history of the draft. Back to the mid 60s.
1) Stephen Strasburg
2) Paul Skenes
3) Mark Prior
4) Ben McDonald
Those other 3 all had their careers shortened by injury. Strasburg and Big Ben both had nice careers, but nothing like they could have been.
I’d still take Skenes if I was anybody that actually wanted to win a World Series. Yeah, pitchers don’t have the same effect in the regular season as an every day player, but they their value goes way up in the playoffs. Now, if you’re a team like the Pirates whose fanbase is desperate just to make the playoffs, I’d probably go position player. And since they’re kinda competing in a weak NL Central and they’ve already invested in Reynolds, I’d take the more major league ready Crews and pay him whatever it takes.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:30 pm to Hot Carl
The biggest reason the Pirates should go for Skenes is that it’s the cheapest they’ll ever get a pitcher of his caliber.
This is the deepest draft we’ve seen in a long time so spreading money out makes more sense this year than other years, but there is also a better pitching prospect than we’ve seen in several years.
This is the deepest draft we’ve seen in a long time so spreading money out makes more sense this year than other years, but there is also a better pitching prospect than we’ve seen in several years.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:44 pm to ProjectP2294
You're interrupting hot Carl's diary
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:45 pm to ProjectP2294
I fully expect Skenes to go 1. I just feel like he’s going to be a beast day 1 in MLB. Seriously, does he really need to even go to the minors? 
Just rest that arm until bullpen in the majors and transition to starter from there.
Just rest that arm until bullpen in the majors and transition to starter from there.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:45 pm to Maximus
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:58 pm to GeauxLSU17
quote:The outfield was nearly silent at the beginning of game 1. I bruised my hands banging on the outfield bleachers. By the end of the game, posters were starting threads saying out much louder RF was compared to LF. You’re welcome.
You were melting about how the LSU fans in Omaha sucked are were quiet while you were there yet posting on here.
ETA: and again, this wasn’t about the team. Thanks for the help.
This post was edited on 7/9/23 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 7/9/23 at 1:58 pm to Hot Carl
quote:
He’s a WAAAAAAY better prospect than those 2.
But that's not the point. Those two (Mize and Leiter) were the best pitchers in their draft classes out of hundreds of available pitchers; and neither even look like passable MLB players (Leiter is obviously too early to call, but he certainly isn't performing like a Top 2 pick). There is no guarantee about anything with pitchers, ever.
The Detroit Tigers tried to rebuild around pitching prospects and it has been a complete fail. They had Mize and Matt Manning who were both Top 25 prospects in all of baseball, and neither has amounted to even an above average MLB pitcher. Tarik Skubal (who was their ~#4 prospect) has at least put up one good season for them, but they're at the same point they were when they traded David Price and started rebuilding.
quote:
And he’s just about as close to a guarantee as there is. Maybe ever was. The risk isn’t him not being great, it’s injury.
Yes, on paper that all makes sense. However if you follow the MLB draft enough, you know that wacky shite happens a lot. Remember Spencer Torkelson? Best power hitting prospect since Bryce Harper, the only question was whether he'd hit 30 HR's or 40 HR's per year. Turns out he can't hit at all. Remember Austin Martin from Vanderbilt? A 70-grade hit tool who has seemingly forgotten how to hit entirely. It's not so much that these two failed, it's that their seemingly "fool-proof" tools turned out to be literally nothing. Both guys were considered extremely safe picks.
Nothing wrong with taking Skenes who is an amazing prospect, but you're running into dangerous waters once you start arguing that injury is the only thing keeping him from greatness.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 2:23 pm to metafour
quote:
He’s a WAAAAAAY better prospect than those 2.
quote:
But that's not the point
Except that it is the point. He's a way better prospect for a reason.
quote:
Those two (Mize and Leiter) were the best pitchers in their draft classes out of hundreds of available pitchers
Just because they were the best pitchers in a particular class doesn't mean anything. If both of those were in this draft class there wouldn't be a single bit of doubt that Skenes would be the first taken. Why do you think that is? Not all first round picks are "can't miss" prospects. Some drafts don't have one single player in it. This draft has 3.
Posted on 7/9/23 at 2:46 pm to Maximus
quote:
You're interrupting hot Carl's diary
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