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My Inaugural Preseason Computer Rankings

Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:01 pm
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15555 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:01 pm
I've been doing computer rankings for a couple years now, using stats and other things to try to rerank teams in my own algorithm. At it's core is a line-generating/handicap system that projects game spreads throughout the season.

This is the first time I've developed preseason rankings. In a nutshell, it takes last season's stats, factors in returning starters, incoming recruiting classes, and looks at their projected record for this upcoming season.

Here are the results:

1.) Alabama (58.07) Proj Record: 11-1 or 12-0
2.) Ohio St. (57.52) Proj Record: 11-1
3.) Michigan (56.23) Proj Record: 12-0
4.) Oklahoma (56.00) Proj Record: 11-1
5.) LSU (54.43) Proj Record: 11-1
6.) Clemson (52.19) Proj Record: 11-1
7.) Miami (FL) (52.14) Proj Record: 11-1
8.) Louisville (52.10) Proj Record: 12-0
9.) Wisconsin (52.01) Proj Record: 11-1
10.) Tennessee (51.49) Proj Record: 10-2
11.) Southern California (51.36) Proj Record: 10-2
12.) Washington (50.72) Proj Record: 12-0
13.) Florida St. (50.49) Proj Record: 9-3
14.) South Fla. (50.22) Proj Record: 12-0
15.) Penn St. (50.10) Proj Record: 9-3
16.) Auburn (50.01) Proj Record: 9-3 or 10-2
17.) Tulsa (49.48) Proj Record: 10-2
18.) Oklahoma St. (49.08) Proj Record: 9-3
19.) Washington St. (48.67) Proj Record: 10-2
20.) Texas A&M (48.24) Proj Record: 9-3
21.) Georgia Tech (48.00) Proj Record: 9-3
22.) Virginia Tech (47.41) Proj Record: 9-3
23.) Kansas St. (47.10) Proj Record: 10-2
24.) Army West Point (46.79) Proj Record: 11-1
25.) San Diego St. (46.53) Proj Record: 11-1 or 12-0
26.) Boise St. (46.33) Proj Record: 9-3
27.) Iowa (46.29) Proj Record: 9-3
28.) Colorado (46.01) Proj Record: 10-2
29.) Western Ky. (45.44) Proj Record: 11-1
30.) TCU (45.11) Proj Record: 9-3
31.) Toledo (44.98) Proj Record: 9-3 or 10-2
32.) BYU (44.74) Proj Record: 10-3
33.) Houston (44.71) Proj Record: 9-3
34.) Western Mich. (44.62) Proj Record: 10-2 or 11-1
35.) Navy (44.48) Proj Record: 8-4
36.) Minnesota (44.43) Proj Record: 8-4 or 9-3
37.) Georgia (44.25) Proj Record: 6-6
38.) Mississippi St. (44.19) Proj Record: 7-5
39.) Utah (43.70) Proj Record: 8-4
40.) Vanderbilt (43.32) Proj Record: 7-5
41.) Pittsburgh (43.31) Proj Record: 8-4
42.) Temple (43.29) Proj Record: 9-3
43.) Nebraska (43.20) Proj Record: 7-5
44.) Coastal Caro. (42.95) Proj Record: 12-0
45.) South Carolina (42.84) Proj Record: 7-5
46.) Stanford (42.31) Proj Record: 6-6 or 7-5
47.) Northwestern (42.18) Proj Record: 7-3
48.) West Virginia (41.66) Proj Record: 8-4
49.) Kentucky (41.54) Proj Record: 6-6
50.) North Carolina (41.35) Proj Record: 7-5
51.) Louisiana Tech (41.00) Proj Record: 9-3
52.) Appalachian St. (40.88) Proj Record: 10-2
53.) New Mexico (40.85) Proj Record: 8-4
54.) Indiana (40.58) Proj Record: 7-5 or 8-4
55.) Memphis (39.87) Proj Record: 8-4
56.) Troy (39.80) Proj Record: 8-4
57.) Missouri (39.78) Proj Record: 7-5
58.) Baylor (39.70) Proj Record: 6-6
59.) UTSA (39.50) Proj Record: 9-3
60.) Texas (39.45) Proj Record: 5-7
61.) Boston College (39.43) Proj Record: 7-5
62.) Middle Tenn. (39.01) Proj Record: 8-4
63.) UCF (38.15) Proj Record: 7-5
64.) Arkansas St. (38.11) Proj Record: 8-4
65.) Notre Dame (38.03) Proj Record: 4-8
66.) Florida (37.98) Proj Record: 4-8 (lol)
67.) UCLA (37.93) Proj Record: 5-7
68.) Southern Miss. (37.88) Proj Record: 8-4
69.) Old Dominion (37.73) Proj Record: 8-4
70.) Michigan St. (37.55) Proj Record: 4-8 or 5-7
71.) Air Force (37.14) Proj Record: 6-6 or 7-5
72.) Ole Miss (36.99) Proj Record: 5-7
73.) Duke (36.65) Proj Record: 3-7
74.) Oregon (36.44) Proj Record: 4-8
75.) Tulane (36.28) Proj Record: 5-7
76.) Ohio (36.25) Proj Record: 8-2
77.) Colorado St. (35.97) Proj Record: 5-7
78.) Texas Tech (35.88) Proj Record: 4-8
79.) Wyoming (35.87) Proj Record: 7-5
80.) Maryland (35.56) Proj Record: 3-9
81.) Utah St. (35.54) Proj Record: 6-6
82.) Massachusetts (35.47) Proj Record: 4-8
83.) Northern Ill. (35.45) Proj Record: 6-6
84.) Oregon St. (35.42) Proj Record: 4-8 or 5-7
85.) Syracuse (35.01) Proj Record: 3-9
86.) Ga. Southern (34.87) Proj Record: 6-6
87.) Wake Forest (34.69) Proj Record: 4-8 or 5-7
88.) Cincinnati (34.11) Proj Record: 5-7
89.) Ball St. (33.83) Proj Record: 6-6
90.) Arkansas (33.80) Proj Record: 2-10 (Bert fired)
91.) Purdue (33.62) Proj Record: 2-10 or 3-9
92.) Virginia (33.59) Proj Record: 3-9
93.) Arizona St. (33.47) Proj Record: 3-9
94.) Idaho (33.40) Proj Record: 6-6
95.) Nevada (33.29) Proj Record: 5-7
96.) Illinois (32.90) Proj Record: 2-10
97.) Iowa St. (32.89) Proj Record: 3-9
98.) Eastern Mich. (32.74) Proj Record: 4-8 or 5-7
99.) Central Mich. (32.67) Proj Record: 5-7
100.) South Ala. (32.37) Proj Record: 6-6
101.) UTEP (31.45) Proj Record: 4-8
102.) UNLV (31.15) Proj Record: 4-8
103.) SMU (30.40) Proj Record: 3-9
104.) Fla. Atlantic (30.39) Proj Record: 3-9
105.) Miami (OH) (30.37) Proj Record: 5-7 or 6-6
106.) North Texas (30.27) Proj Record: 4-8
107.) Marshall (30.10) Proj Record: 3-9 or 4-8
108.) Rice (30.01) Proj Record: 3-9
109.) East Carolina (29.90) Proj Record: 2-10
110.) NC State (29.62) Proj Record: 3-9
110.) La.-Monroe (29.62) Proj Record: 2-10
112.) Kansas (29.36) Proj Record: 2-10
113.) California (29.24) Proj Record: 2-10
114.) Louisiana (28.55) Proj Record: 4-8
115.) Kent St. (28.28) Proj Record: 3-9 or 4-8
116.) Georgia St. (28.03) Proj Record: 3-9
117.) Akron (27.75) Proj Record: 3-9 or 4-8
118.) Arizona (27.63) Proj Record: 1-11
119.) Charlotte (27.48) Proj Record: 3-9 or 4-8
120.) Hawaii (26.95) Proj Record: 3-9
121.) Buffalo (26.78) Proj Record: 3-9
122.) Rutgers (26.73) Proj Record: 1-11
123.) Fresno St. (26.59) Proj Record: 1-11
124.) UConn (26.55) Proj Record: 2-10
125.) FIU (26.53) Proj Record: 2-10
126.) San Jose St. (26.43) Proj Record: 2-11
127.) Bowling Green (24.56) Proj Record: 1-11 or 2-10
128.) Texas St. (24.27) Proj Record: 1-11
129.) New Mexico St. (22.10) Proj Record: 1-11

LSU's lone projected loss is to Alabama (-8). Alabama has a toss-up game @Auburn, leading to their ambiguous prediction. Florida and Arky have HUGE letdown years.

If y'all want to know more details behind projected wins/losses, let me know and I'll share.

Pumped for some REAL football!
Posted by Mystictiger
Texas
Member since Jul 2015
2623 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:02 pm to
Arkansas at 2-10?
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93646 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:03 pm to
You don't take this stuff very seriously or anything do you?

That's great stuff, let's hope it plays out for LSU that they're the 5th best team now and can improve on that.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33794 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:03 pm to
11-1, huh?

Fair enough. Make it so, O.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164075 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:06 pm to
But where are we playing Saturday??
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
32625 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:06 pm to
Whatever algorithm you have is wrong. Tennessee ain't going 10-2, A&M isn't gonna win 9 games,


How does Michigan go undefeated and finish below Ohio State?

Florida is way better than 4-8

Most of this shite makes no sense. How is Washington undefeated and outside of the top 10?
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15555 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

Solo Cam


That's not their projected final rankings. It's the preseason rankings, which uses their projected record as part of the algorithm. It's not 100% based on projected record. Otherwise, I'd just order them based on that, haha.
Posted by TNTigerman
James Island
Member since Sep 2012
10470 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

Arkansas at 2-10?

Sounds good to me.
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
14482 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:34 pm to
Pretty interesting.

How do your results compare against Vegas win-loss totals? More or less in line or a few huge differences?
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
27784 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:40 pm to
Shouldn't there be 130 teams?
Posted by lsurulz1515
Member since Mar 2007
5615 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:42 pm to
How have your past seasons looked comparing your preseason rankings to the final rankings?
Posted by BigOrangeWave
Member since Oct 2014
654 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

How have your past seasons looked comparing your preseason rankings to the final rankings?


From OP:
quote:

This is the first time I've developed preseason rankings.
Posted by Chadwick
Member since Aug 2011
5081 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:10 pm to
Posted by beauchristopher
new orleans
Member since Jan 2008
65826 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:11 pm to
Yes please
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
89832 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:12 pm to
UGA at 6-6?
Posted by bluebarracuda
Member since Oct 2011
18228 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:13 pm to
Care to share your algorithm?
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

90.) Arkansas (33.80) Proj Record: 2-10 (Bert fired)

You lost me with this one.
Posted by cade73
Member since Sep 2015
1060 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:17 pm to
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15555 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

How do your results compare against Vegas win-loss totals? More or less in line or a few huge differences?


My lines are generally pretty dang close to Vegas. I was about 55-60% against Vegas last year.
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15555 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Shouldn't there be 130 teams


UAB and Liberty are reclassifying this year, so no data from last year.
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