- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: LSU's Real Odds of winning the CWS
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:53 pm to BigSlick
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:53 pm to BigSlick
So you say this first:
But then you say this:
ETA: not even trying to be a dick here, but that seems like a direct contradiction.
quote:
"Vegas odds" do not, never have and never will reflect any sort of true measure of teams' actual abilities and chances relative to each other?
But then you say this:
quote:
they no doubt consider all the teams' abilities relative to each other,
ETA: not even trying to be a dick here, but that seems like a direct contradiction.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 3:54 pm
1
Posted on 5/31/17 at 3:55 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
using Bayesian statistics
you did no such thing. poorly calculating probability is not Bayesian statistics
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:00 pm to Broski
I don't see a contradiction. I wrote "any true measure." They may start by assessing strength, but they would surely have to adjust for anticipated betting. If fan (bettor) behavior moves the line, then it isn't "true" anymore.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:08 pm to BigSlick
It's arguing semantics, but a team's true measure of ability surely factors into a team's ability relative to the competition.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 4:14 pm to MidCityTiger
.......and what are the moon phases during all this ?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:29 pm to Zanzibaw
True if 15/2 = 16.56%, which it does not.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:30 pm to UpToPar
They do not.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:31 pm to ell_13
You are incorrect.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 5:36 pm to BigSlick
You are both correct and incorrect. The odds are meant to split the betting public, but this does not mean they are not a reasonable estimation of actual probability. LSU would not be the favorite in Omaha, and these odds reflect this. And, as is true for all odds, they are simply someone's estimate, although probably better than most.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:34 pm to MidCityTiger
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:49 pm to Broski
quote:
It's arguing semantics, but a team's true measure of ability surely factors into a team's ability relative to the competition.
You are correct. The OP is misusing the word probability. He is using a layman's definition of probability that equates its meaning to be on par with the meaning of 'odds'. He is not using a scientific meaning of the word probability.
A true probability can only be calculated with any meaningful degree of confidence on a very simple system. For instance, the electron density on each atom for a simple conjugated molecule can be calculated. The true probability of anything so exceedingly complex as a team winning a series of baseball games is uncalculatable.
Thus, trend analysis, like Vegas Odds, are used to approximate a teams chances of winning. The lay public only really cares about a teams odds to that degree of complexity anyway.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 7:36 pm to MidCityTiger
Only obstacle in the way of Omaha is beating MSU in a home series.
Once in Omaha it is an 8 way toss up.
Once in Omaha it is an 8 way toss up.
This post was edited on 5/31/17 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 5/31/17 at 8:22 pm to Oyster
I mean the true odds of them winning are 1 : 64. Anything can happen!
Posted on 5/31/17 at 10:25 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
Las Vegas gives LSU 15/2 odds of winning the CWS. This calculates to an 11.8% probability of winning the CWS, should they make it to Omaha. (Note that this is only slightly less than the 12.5% probability of winning the CWS if all teams were considered equal.)
Using the 71% probability of getting to the CWS and the 11.8% probability of winning it all once there, the probability of LSU getting there and then winning it all is 0.08, or 8%. (0.71 x 0.118)
The 15/2 odds in Las Vegas aren't once we get there. That's calculating in the odds of getting there, too. If and when we get there, they will set our odds at better than 15/2.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 10:30 pm to BigSlick
quote:
Why do so many people on TD CONSTANTLY ignore or fail to understand that "Vegas odds" do not, never have and never will reflect any sort of true measure of teams' actual abilities and chances relative to each other?
"Vegas odds" simply reflect the point at which the books can get equal action on both sides of a bet, not the relative ability or chances of the team.
While you are technically correct, there are enough knowledgeable bettors with enough money to play with that, if the bookmakers set the odds way off from the teams' abilities, they would get hit pretty hard by the experts. Now, this may not be the case with college baseball, since I doubt it's a huge betting sport, but in more major sports, the lines should be pretty close to the bookmakers' estimates of the teams' actual chances.
Posted on 5/31/17 at 10:49 pm to MidCityTiger
Simple question: what's the time schedule like in Omaha, in terms of rest?
I think LSU has an excellent chance, probably as good as anyone in the field, of winning games... as long as we have the SEC pitchers starting.
But there's a huge drop-off when you get into the midweek pitchers; and I don't like their chances against the field then.
So- how much can we ride our top 3 pitchers?
I think LSU has an excellent chance, probably as good as anyone in the field, of winning games... as long as we have the SEC pitchers starting.
But there's a huge drop-off when you get into the midweek pitchers; and I don't like their chances against the field then.
So- how much can we ride our top 3 pitchers?
Posted on 6/1/17 at 12:05 am to MidCityTiger
What are the odds that we don't get all the games playrd in 3 days? hint - lots of rain coming
Posted on 6/1/17 at 1:27 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
While you are technically correct, there are enough knowledgeable bettors with enough money to play with that, if the bookmakers set the odds way off from the teams' abilities, they would get hit pretty hard by the experts. Now, this may not be the case with college baseball, since I doubt it's a huge betting sport, but in more major sports, the lines should be pretty close to the bookmakers' estimates of the teams' actual chances.
He is wrong though. Bookmakers want to maximize expected value, not balance out risk. Especially in Vegas, where they have enormous resources backing their bookmaking. In many cases, maximizing EV will also balance out risk, but there are plenty of conceivable situations where maximizing EV will cause heavier betting one way or the other. When that's the case, Vegas would be perfectly happy to play against the bettors.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 3:10 am to MidCityTiger
Www.boydsworld.com. Guy has been doing it for years. Probabilities for all teams
Posted on 6/1/17 at 6:49 am to MidCityTiger
quote:
True if 15/2 = 16.56%, which it does not.
You are literally too stupid to insult. Vegas has already calculated the "real" final odds for you. The odds they have include the notion that they have to get through a regional and super.
Page 2 of 3
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News