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Started By
Message
re: LSU v. Alabama -- BCS NGC 01/09/12 @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:41 pm to Cadello
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:41 pm to Cadello
quote:
Let’s finish off the deeper look into the computer rankings by tackling one of the more mysterious ranking systems, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings.
At its most basic, Wolfe’s idea is that there is a certain likelihood of one team beating another. Although his formula is secret, he utilizes this idea through a “maximum likelihood estimate” of a victory by a given team.
Wolfe then rates teams against their likelihood estimate, basically actual outcome vs probability of that outcome occurring.
The ratings arise from comparing mutual opponents and weighing the location of the upcoming and previous games.
Wolfe’s ratings rate 730 schools to increase the number of probability outcomes he can produce, and helps account for FCS vs. FBS matchups and the like.
Overall, Wolfe keeps things pretty private, and doesn’t release rankings until the first BCS standings are released.
1
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:42 pm to Cadello
quote:
I have a feeling even if it's been decided there will be far reaching consequences that will change the way things are decided in the future.
It's obvious (especially with Sagarin's bullshite) that this system is far worse than people realized. How can there be no oversight? No algorithms published? It stinks to high horse shite.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:42 pm to Lombardi44
Man, I knew it! He is so darn smart. I mean with all that talk about the BCS and what team will play where. I don't know how he does it every week on that cool TV show with other brains like Craig James and Robert Smith. They make it all so easy to understand. Mr. Edwards is the shizznit!
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:45 pm to 7thWardTiger
Its not fully updated, that's been posted like 10 times in here 
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:46 pm to 7thWardTiger
I doubt that is right. Have to go straight to the source and Massey isn't released yet
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:47 pm to lsumatt
Unless Massey is using the same funky math as Sagarin's joke of a poll, there is no way that Bama can stay ahead of OSU in that poll. Literally none.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:47 pm to lsumatt
It's going to be close. I would have thought the coaches would have made a bigger push to not allow an all SEC affair.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:47 pm to Cadello
quote:
I have a feeling even if it's been decided there will be far reaching consequences that will change the way things are decided in the future.
The BCS is too broken to fix at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't try to fix the system to prevent one conference from getting a monopoly on the BCSNCG.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:47 pm to WoWyHi
Thanks for the info lsumatt! You are truly amazing! I thought maybe I could find a good bit of info on the tide boards, but that was a waste of time....
And, why does this year bring back memories of 2007? Waiting for that last reveal on the BCS show of who was going to the NC game & having it be LSU?
As for feeling sorry for OSU...I've been to those boards too...and they would rather win their first BCS game by 30 points than play for the NC, so let them go! We got this!!
And, why does this year bring back memories of 2007? Waiting for that last reveal on the BCS show of who was going to the NC game & having it be LSU?
As for feeling sorry for OSU...I've been to those boards too...and they would rather win their first BCS game by 30 points than play for the NC, so let them go! We got this!!
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:48 pm to Myshkin
quote:
Let’s finish off the deeper look into the computer rankings by tackling one of the more mysterious ranking systems, Peter Wolfe’s Rankings. At its most basic, Wolfe’s idea is that there is a certain likelihood of one team beating another. Although his formula is secret, he utilizes this idea through a “maximum likelihood estimate” of a victory by a given team. Wolfe then rates teams against their likelihood estimate, basically actual outcome vs probability of that outcome occurring. The ratings arise from comparing mutual opponents and weighing the location of the upcoming and previous games. Wolfe’s ratings rate 730 schools to increase the number of probability outcomes he can produce, and helps account for FCS vs. FBS matchups and the like. Overall, Wolfe keeps things pretty private, and doesn’t release rankings until the first BCS standings are released.
Link?
I'm hoping this is true just so I can
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:49 pm to 7thWardTiger
If the AP poll hadn't been replaced by the Harris poll a few years ago, Oklagoma State would be #2.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:50 pm to tiger1014
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:50 pm to 7thWardTiger
quote:
Bama #2 in Massey?
LINKi can't make heads or tails if this is updated or not, but it seems OSU stays at 3 in this poll.
it's not updated, and even if it was, that's massey mov not massey bcs
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:52 pm to trackfan
quote:
If the AP poll hadn't been replaced by the Harris poll a few years ago, Oklagoma State would be #2.
Not if the Wolfe poll puts Bama at #2. OSU would have to be actually ahead of Bama in that case in the Harris poll.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:53 pm to noladan
quote:
All done. Michigan and k- state in sugar
Where are you hearing this. If true, then yeah. It's 'Bama #2
The Times-Pic is reporting that the Sugar Bowl will take Michigan with their first pick.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:54 pm to Geaux2002
quote:
Not if the Wolfe poll puts Bama at #2. OSU would have to be actually ahead of Bama in that case in the Harris poll.
That Wolfe thing just smells of rotten eggs to me
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:54 pm to 7thWardTiger
Did I read that right?
ACR (Annar) has:
1. Alabama
2. Boise
3. Houston
4. Oklahoma
5. Wisconsin
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. Georgia
9. LSU
10. OSU
If they are indeed a rating system they should be kicked in the nads.
ACR (Annar) has:
1. Alabama
2. Boise
3. Houston
4. Oklahoma
5. Wisconsin
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. Georgia
9. LSU
10. OSU
If they are indeed a rating system they should be kicked in the nads.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:55 pm to Cadello
I volunteer to do that.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:56 pm to TigerintheNO
reaporting? lol
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