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Started By
Message
LSU Pitcher 2026 Base on Balls vs Previous Season
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:32 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:32 am
So, obviously its well documented how horrible we are with giving up free bases. I wanted to go through pitcher by pitcher and see how it compared to their previous season pitched to see which improved vs which ones stayed about the same, vs those who regressed. I want to preface that I wouldn't expect every pitcher or even most pitchers to necessarily imrpove year to year in BB per IP, but you need some improvement from at least half your staff in this regard, and especially from more of your top end arms. I ignored freshmen as I dont find it helpful to compare to high school stats. Below are my findings strictly comparing BB per IP vs their previous season of pitching:
Improved:
William Schmidt 29% decrease
Gavin Guidry (2 years ago) 37% decrease
Connor Benge 47% decrease
About the same:
Cooper Moore 2% increase (pre-injury vs 2025 at Kansas)
Regressed:
Casan Evans 42% Increase
Devin Sheerin 12% Increase
Zac Cowan 37% Increase
Dax Dathe 53% Increase (small school jump up could partially explain)
Grant Fontenot 276% Increase
Santiago Garcia 21% Inrease
Danny Lachenmeyer 69% Increase (small school jump up may explain some)
Mavrick Rizy 15% Increase
Cooper Williams 36% Increase
Jaden Noot 67% Increase
DJ Primeaux 333% Increase
Bottom line, there is a major trend towards the negative here, and the approach, mentality, pitch selection, and scouting needs to be re-thought by this staff.
Improved:
William Schmidt 29% decrease
Gavin Guidry (2 years ago) 37% decrease
Connor Benge 47% decrease
About the same:
Cooper Moore 2% increase (pre-injury vs 2025 at Kansas)
Regressed:
Casan Evans 42% Increase
Devin Sheerin 12% Increase
Zac Cowan 37% Increase
Dax Dathe 53% Increase (small school jump up could partially explain)
Grant Fontenot 276% Increase
Santiago Garcia 21% Inrease
Danny Lachenmeyer 69% Increase (small school jump up may explain some)
Mavrick Rizy 15% Increase
Cooper Williams 36% Increase
Jaden Noot 67% Increase
DJ Primeaux 333% Increase
Bottom line, there is a major trend towards the negative here, and the approach, mentality, pitch selection, and scouting needs to be re-thought by this staff.
7
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:38 am to josh336
quote:
the approach, mentality, pitch selection, and scouting needs to be re-thought by this staff.
Or just dump Yeskie
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:39 am to josh336
Yeskie staffs have had a walks issue since at least A&M. He does also have a lot of postseason development skins on the wall to be fair. But Jay needs to take a real deep dive on him.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:40 am to josh336
quote:
Grant Fontenot 276% Increase
This one surprised me because there are ways he's absolutely better than he had been.
I don't think he was done any favors by being asked to pitch in 4 of 6 games over the course of 8 or 9 days at one point this season.
One of the things we did was as soon as any pitcher showed any sort of progression, we leaned so hard on them that they wilted and regressed. I disagreed with a lot of the "who to pitch when" decisions this year. Mostly around guys throwing more than once a week or especially more than once a weekend.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:40 am to josh336
It would also be helpful to include HBP and maybe even WP (not totally controlled by the pitcher, but useful in showing how much this season has really gone off the rails)
HBP though we already have 9 more than last season in 14 less games at the moment. We have 18 more WP than last season again in 14 less games
HBP though we already have 9 more than last season in 14 less games at the moment. We have 18 more WP than last season again in 14 less games
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:42 am to ProjectP2294
The desperation i think led to some of those decisions., but there were definitely plenty of head scratchers.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:43 am to thunderbird1100
I didnt want to get into all that, especially wild pitches because of how they are scored and who rightfully or wrongly gets the blame for them. Hbp as well for the sort of luck factor involved. Although there is definitely something to it
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:51 am to josh336
Those damn umpires
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:06 pm to josh336
quote:
josh336
This is quality work. Appreciate you putting the time into a legitimate analysis.
I didn’t think this season could get more depressing, but - against all odds - you’ve done it, Josh.
We’re about to find out what non-baseball fans do with their time during the last week of May and the early weeks of June.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:14 pm to LSU=Champions
Im usually digging into the numbers for regionals, i guess ill be doing it without lsu :tear:
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:52 pm to josh336
We’re cut from the same cloth. I made a pretty sizable multi-tabbed Excel spreadsheet back in 2024 ahead of the SECT as we were squarely on the bubble. It was essentially a historical RPI analysis for all teams finishing with 12, 13, 14, and 15 regular season SEC wins, charting each team’s RPI, SEC regular season wins, SECT wins, combined SEC wins, and whether or not that team got a postseason bid.
Obviously had no reason to update it last year.
Well, after our series win vs Tenn earlier this year, I spent a considerable amount of my time updating it with the full 2024 and 2025 data. What a waste of time that was
Obviously had no reason to update it last year.
Well, after our series win vs Tenn earlier this year, I spent a considerable amount of my time updating it with the full 2024 and 2025 data. What a waste of time that was
Posted on 5/15/26 at 1:57 pm to LSU=Champions
Keep it for next year, you never know, but hopefully we wont need it. I tried building something with DSR and KPI incorporated to combine with RPI to sort of predict seeds for each team, but i quit a couple weeks ago once LSU quit.
You may want to start incorporating DSR, i could see it becoming just as used if not more used than RPI
You may want to start incorporating DSR, i could see it becoming just as used if not more used than RPI
Posted on 5/15/26 at 1:58 pm to josh336
Are the DSR and KPI formulas public or are they black boxed?
Posted on 5/15/26 at 2:06 pm to ProjectP2294
I dont think kpi is available. Dsr also is not available, but the guy who created it has done a few interviews and explained how he built it, what factors are included.
He said its some advanced metrics for offensive and defensive efficiency, winning percentage, SOS, run differential, and what they deem as quality wins
He said its some advanced metrics for offensive and defensive efficiency, winning percentage, SOS, run differential, and what they deem as quality wins
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:06 pm to josh336
Both are publicly available and regularly updated.
DSR is on D1Baseball dot com
KPI is on FaktorSports dot com
I will include those data points going forward but the historical values (before this year) are meaningless bc the Committee didn’t use them.
I’d hope they get weighted more heavily than RPI in time, but it sounds like the Committee for softball applied same strict RPI metrics and disregarded KPI and DSR, despite their supposed “inclusion” in the evaluation process this year. I have zero optimism in the Committee’s ability to reach objective conclusions.
DSR is on D1Baseball dot com
KPI is on FaktorSports dot com
I will include those data points going forward but the historical values (before this year) are meaningless bc the Committee didn’t use them.
I’d hope they get weighted more heavily than RPI in time, but it sounds like the Committee for softball applied same strict RPI metrics and disregarded KPI and DSR, despite their supposed “inclusion” in the evaluation process this year. I have zero optimism in the Committee’s ability to reach objective conclusions.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:30 pm to josh336
Man that’s depressing.
Thanks for pulling the numbers together and interesting to see it.
Yeski has an elite track record but his time at A&M they walked a lot of guys and in 24 here he looked to be trending that way but he at least developed guys, then last year great job with Kade and AE and then even improved Evans and Shores as the season went on.
This year seeing our staff be so bad is shocking. Feel like Yeski either needs to get more talent or change up something
Thanks for pulling the numbers together and interesting to see it.
Yeski has an elite track record but his time at A&M they walked a lot of guys and in 24 here he looked to be trending that way but he at least developed guys, then last year great job with Kade and AE and then even improved Evans and Shores as the season went on.
This year seeing our staff be so bad is shocking. Feel like Yeski either needs to get more talent or change up something
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:54 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
I disagreed with a lot of the "who to pitch when" decisions this year.
So many headscratchers this year without any real common denominator... pulled too early, left too long, called on too often, not called on when it seemed a different guy should be out there... just a lot this year.
If I had to say one thing that seemed to override was guys getting pulled who were getting playable ground balls that were booted or missed often due to shifts... considering it was a crapshoot as to what the next guy brought, I thought we gave a way close games when guys were pitching adequately but had some bad circumstance.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 9:50 pm to LSU=Champions
quote:
Both are publicly available and regularly updated.
He meant, is the formula readily available, i dont think it is, or havent seen it
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