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LSU (-11.5) @ Arkansas
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:23 pm
Line opened at LSU (-14). Pinnacle & Nitrogen now have LSU -11.5, while a couple other sites, i.e. BetOnline are showing -12. It is interesting because 75% of public bets placed are on LSU -14, yet the line has dropped rather significantly in the past day or so. It is possible there is some heavy "sharp" money coming in on the other side forcing books to shift the line in a bit.
This is purely an informational post. Not attempting to cause worry or anything like that. I personally think LSU -11.5 is pretty good value.
EDIT: Will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next 24 hours when more public money starts to roll in.
This is purely an informational post. Not attempting to cause worry or anything like that. I personally think LSU -11.5 is pretty good value.
EDIT: Will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next 24 hours when more public money starts to roll in.
This post was edited on 11/9/18 at 12:27 pm
8
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:24 pm to IPALover
Sharps like to fade double digit road favorites in conference games.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:25 pm to IPALover
Pinnacle is a juggernaut. Whatever line they have is right, because the sharps on there will hammer thousands on something that's just the tiniest bit out of line.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:26 pm to IPALover
I have a really baaaaad feeling about this game.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:28 pm to LSUStar
quote:
have a really baaaaad feeling about this game.
R-Kansas is turrible.
It's just that all the common trends say they'll cover.
What I mentioned earlier, plus ranked team coming off a loss, and team coming off a top ten opponent. All three of those indicators say Arky should cover.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:28 pm to IPALover
Reverse line movement is always a mind frick for me.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:34 pm to LSUStar
quote:
I have a really baaaaad feeling about this game.
Willing to bet you are one of the ones that had a bad feeling going into the Ole Miss and Mississippi State games as well. O has shown that he can get his team ready to play after losses.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:34 pm to burdman
Im taking LSU at 11.5 all day. Arkansas is the worst team in the league. The Bama is game is an outlier. LSU is not as bad as bama made them look.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:34 pm to LSUStar
“ I have a bad feeling”
We should win easy and our offensive numbers should get a good boost. Arkansas is not a good team.
If we dont, a lot of gloves are going to come off.
We should win easy and our offensive numbers should get a good boost. Arkansas is not a good team.
If we dont, a lot of gloves are going to come off.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:35 pm to LSUStar
quote:
I have a really baaaaad feeling about this game.
I love when fans say stuff like this. Same goes for the ones that feel really good about a game, too.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:37 pm to IPALover
Geez -11.5 is a lock. Vegas taking our shutout against Bama too far, we should all be jumping on this.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:41 pm to LSUStar
If you have a bad feeling about Arkansas then you must be terrified of aTm. Wouldn't be surprised if we lose to aTm.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 12:42 pm to IPALover
Honestly think LSU will bounce back and take out some frustration on arkansas. Orgeron has been good at getting the team to step up after a letdown.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 1:46 pm to rattlebucket
It's just the last time Arkansas had a long winless streak and we played them in FYV after a discouraging loss to Alabama and they had a bye week before plus cold weather during the game we lost 17-0 to a really BAD Arkansas team.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 1:51 pm to tigger42day
quote:
It's just the last time Arkansas had a long winless streak and we played them in FYV after a discouraging loss to Alabama and they had a bye week before plus cold weather during the game we lost 17-0 to a really BAD Arkansas team.
This Arkansas team is worse than that Arkansas team. And this LSU team is better than that LSU team
Posted on 11/9/18 at 1:52 pm to IPALover
I'd be interested to know how past LSU teams have performed in cold weather.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 1:53 pm to tigger42day
I'm going back and forth because I remember that game...but also this is a different scenario. As bad as THAT arky team was, they would probably beat this arky team by double digits. Also O's LSU vs arky and Mile's LSU vs arky are two different scenarios.
Either way I think we will know early on. I remember I knew in 5 minutes we were going to lose that game. The team didn't give two shits about being there....they were sipping hot chocolate FFS
Either way I think we will know early on. I remember I knew in 5 minutes we were going to lose that game. The team didn't give two shits about being there....they were sipping hot chocolate FFS
Posted on 11/9/18 at 1:56 pm to IPALover
Bovada opened at 13.5 and it's now 13.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 2:02 pm to scott8811
That's what concerns me. I agree we're better under O but a lack of desire is the great equalizer.
Posted on 11/9/18 at 2:12 pm to tigger42day
That Arkansas team actually wasn’t bad at all. They were bad when the streak started, but that particular season they lost a bunch of close games. They lost in OT to A&M, to Alabama by 1, to State by 7. Then they beat us, beat the shite out of top 10 Ole Miss the week after 30-0, before losing another one score game to Missouri to close. Then annihilated Texas in a bowl game.
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