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re: Let's assume, Okie St AND Clemson win on Saturday. What % chance does Bama...
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:13 pm to LSUzealot
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:13 pm to LSUzealot
I don't think VT/Clemson matters all that much
In fact, if VT wins, it could just give voters more ammo to sink Bama further.
They all know VT can't make it, but they can make their polls look like this:
LSU
OSU
VT
Alabama
and be completely justified in doing so. Hell, Houston might even sneak higher than Bama in some ballots.
In fact, if VT wins, it could just give voters more ammo to sink Bama further.
They all know VT can't make it, but they can make their polls look like this:
LSU
OSU
VT
Alabama
and be completely justified in doing so. Hell, Houston might even sneak higher than Bama in some ballots.
1
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:14 pm to LSUzealot
Here are the numbers again:
1. After this weekend, with a win, OSU will be #2 in all the computer polls which gives them a .960 score.
2. 15 coaches votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 1372/1475=.930169
3. 29 harris votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 2674/2875=.93008
4. OSU would have a BCS score of .94008
1. Alabama will be the consensus #3 CPU team with a score or .920
2. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the coaches and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 1401/1475=.949830
3. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the harris and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 2731/2875=.949913
4. Alabama would have a BCS score of .93991
Two things have to happen this week:
1. Clemson has to beat VT in the ACCCG which takes a team out who may get some 3rd place votes with a win.
2. OSU has to win handily (DDs) over OU.
If Stanford were to get some 3rd place votes, then Oklahoma State would need to get an additional number of 2nd place votes to offset it
1. After this weekend, with a win, OSU will be #2 in all the computer polls which gives them a .960 score.
2. 15 coaches votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 1372/1475=.930169
3. 29 harris votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 2674/2875=.93008
4. OSU would have a BCS score of .94008
1. Alabama will be the consensus #3 CPU team with a score or .920
2. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the coaches and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 1401/1475=.949830
3. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the harris and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 2731/2875=.949913
4. Alabama would have a BCS score of .93991
Two things have to happen this week:
1. Clemson has to beat VT in the ACCCG which takes a team out who may get some 3rd place votes with a win.
2. OSU has to win handily (DDs) over OU.
If Stanford were to get some 3rd place votes, then Oklahoma State would need to get an additional number of 2nd place votes to offset it
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:14 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
irregardless
pet peeve...
Although well attested, this term is widely regarded as nonstandard and an illiteracy for regardless or irrespective, and is probably inappropriate in virtually any formal setting, except quoted dialog
LINK
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:15 pm to LSUzealot
40
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:15 pm to baytiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 1:41 am
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:16 pm to purpngold
quote:
purpngold
Quit cluttering the TR with your grammar lesson.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:17 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Here are the numbers again:
1. After this weekend, with a win, OSU will be #2 in all the computer polls which gives them a .960 score.
2. 15 coaches votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 1372/1475=.930169
3. 29 harris votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 2674/2875=.93008
4. OSU would have a BCS score of .94008
1. Alabama will be the consensus #3 CPU team with a score or .920
2. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the coaches and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 1401/1475=.949830
3. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the harris and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 2731/2875=.949913
4. Alabama would have a BCS score of .93991
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:18 pm to LSUzealot
I have to go with a 50/50 in that situation. Last week, I would have guessed 80% Bama is I'm regardless, but with all these voters coming out, we are getting a little more insight.
It will be awesome to watch unfold from LSU's position.
It will be awesome to watch unfold from LSU's position.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:20 pm to LSUzealot
..and I'm not including the possibility of a 2006 Michigan type snub of voters dropping Alabama to 4th, which could easily happen.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:22 pm to LSUzealot
irregardless not a word...... 
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:22 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Two things have to happen this week:
1. Clemson has to beat VT in the ACCCG which takes a team out who may get some 3rd place votes with a win.
2. OSU has to win handily (DDs) over OU.
As you point out, your logic assumes that voters will look at this:
OSU 11-1 Conference Champs, won biggest game of season
Alabama 11-1, Conf. & Division loser, lost biggest game of the season
and 75% of them will vote Alabama #2. Not going to happen. The only reason it hasn't is because they know they could very well be looking at this:
Alabama 11-1
OSU 10-2
And based on that possibility alone, Alabama deserves to be #2, FOR NOW.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:22 pm to LSUAlum2001
Considering the coaches have to all publicly show their poll, I honestly can't see this happening.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:24 pm to TDlurker
quote:
and 75% of them will vote Alabama #2. Not going to happen. The only reason it hasn't is because they know they could very well be looking at this:
Alabama 11-1
OSU 10-2
please continue lurking
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:26 pm to LSUzealot
quote:I think it's 50/50 at that point. Computers will favor OSU, voters will need to jump OSU over Stanford and a decent amount of voters to switch Alabama #2 to OSU #2.
Let's assume, Okie St AND Clemson win on Saturday
50/50 given your scenario. I think OSU beating OSU handily helps them a lot. Doesn't matter how VT loses.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:28 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
please continue lurking
I don't see what is wrong with his post. He is saying that just because voters have Bama #2 now, doesnt mean they won't move them down with an OSU win. Right now, the safe play is Bama at #2. IF OSU beats OU, then they could feel justified.
I actually think he is agreeing with you and alum on this one.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:29 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Here are the numbers again:
1. After this weekend, with a win, OSU will be #2 in all the computer polls which gives them a .960 score.
2. 15 coaches votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 1372/1475=.930169
3. 29 harris votes need to have OSU #2 and the rest all be #3 votes, which would give them a score of 2674/2875=.93008
4. OSU would have a BCS score of .94008
1. Alabama will be the consensus #3 CPU team with a score or .920
2. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the coaches and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 1401/1475=.949830
3. If they received 75% 2nd place votes in the harris and the rest are 3rd place votes, they would have a score of 2731/2875=.949913
4. Alabama would have a BCS score of .93991
Two things have to happen this week:
1. Clemson has to beat VT in the ACCCG which takes a team out who may get some 3rd place votes with a win.
2. OSU has to win handily (DDs) over OU.
If Stanford were to get some 3rd place votes, then Oklahoma State would need to get an additional number of 2nd place votes to offset it
Good post, but you don't think voters realize this. Much like in 2006, if voters don't want an SEC BCS championship game they will drop Bama in the polls and make OSU #2.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:30 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
..and I'm not including the possibility of a 2006 Michigan type snub of voters dropping Alabama to 4th, which could easily happen.
Yup, that was my point.
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:31 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Considering the coaches have to all publicly show their poll, I honestly can't see this happening.
Did this change?
Ballots for final coaches' poll won't be released
ETA: Yes, they were supposed to make them private starting in 2010, but kept them public. However, 5 BigXII coaches have a vote, and I'd expect a bunch of others go the "Alabama lost at home and doesn't deserve to go over a 1 loss conference champion" route.
This post was edited on 12/1/11 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:31 pm to LSUzealot
I can really see the national media's mood starting to sour at the possibility of a rematch. It started off as a novel idea at first with ESPN cheerleading the hype wagon, but I think they are starting to change their minds.
I still think Bama makes it, but there is a strong possibility (approx 30%) that they don't. IMO FWIW EAD
I still think Bama makes it, but there is a strong possibility (approx 30%) that they don't. IMO FWIW EAD
Posted on 12/1/11 at 4:32 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
Considering the coaches have to all publicly show their poll, I honestly can't see this happening.
They'll justify it by saying Bama was Idle while OSU has their best win of the season and Vtech revenged a loss.
This post was edited on 12/1/11 at 4:37 pm
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