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Posted on 6/27/25 at 6:52 am to HuntinFishin25
Believe it or not…… Kids that are 6’5” 245lbs with 450’ homerun power that play an athletic and stout first base don’t grow on trees. The truth is you have no idea how his bat will develop now that baseball will be his sole focus. There are worse hitters than Jones who have come through the college ranks and made it to the bigs.
I’d selfishly love for Jones to return, but it ain’t happening. He’s a 2nd team all-American, 2x national champion, 3rd all time on LSU’s HR list. There’s just nothing left for him to accomplish unless he’s dead set on being LSU’s all time HR leader(which I highly doubt), and he’d lose all bargaining leverage as a Senior.
He’s gone
I’d selfishly love for Jones to return, but it ain’t happening. He’s a 2nd team all-American, 2x national champion, 3rd all time on LSU’s HR list. There’s just nothing left for him to accomplish unless he’s dead set on being LSU’s all time HR leader(which I highly doubt), and he’d lose all bargaining leverage as a Senior.
He’s gone
Posted on 6/27/25 at 7:35 am to HuntinFishin25
quote:
Jones needs another year at LSU with a HEAVY focus on offense. If he leaves for the BIGS, his name will disappear unfortunately. No emotion, simple objectivity.
Around 10% of all minor league players make it to MLB so you aren’t exactly going out on a limb.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 9:08 am to Sofaking2
quote:
Around 10% of all minor league players make it to MLB so you aren’t exactly going out on a limb.
Yup. 66% of first rounders make it, slightly less than 50% of second rounders make it, and only 32% of guys drafted in Rounds 3-5 make it. After that it drops to just more than 10%. From 2013 to 2023, no team had more 23% of their draftees make it to the Bigs.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 9:15 am to HuntinFishin25
I would imagine most people including myself would love for him to come back. It isn’t happening.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 9:21 am to LSU82BILL
quote:
So you are going to dismiss what he accomplished over 3 years because he had a mini-slump in this year’s NCAA tournament? Sorry, but MLB has plenty of players that are going to give you 25-40 HR’s and strike out 200 time and Jones will only get better after 1,000 or so MiLB at bats.
I’m sorry, but there is no way of knowing Jones is a sure fire MLB player. Not shitting on him, it is hard to crack the MLB.
You’re forgetting that the minors are filled with every college team’s best pitcher. They improve as well
Posted on 6/27/25 at 9:32 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
I’m sorry, but there is no way of knowing Jones is a sure fire MLB player. Not shitting on him, it is hard to crack the MLB.
Yup. See my post about percentages of draftees making it. If you were asked if a player, any player, drafted after the first round was going to make the majors and you said "no", you would be right far more times than you would be wrong. This isn't the NFL where 95% of the players drafted in the first three rounds make a roster. About the same percentage of players drafted in rounds 4 - 7 of the NFL draft make the 53 man roster as MLB first rounders that ever play a game in the Majors. Crazy hard to make it to the Big Leagues.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 12:13 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
I’m sorry, but there is no way of knowing Jones is a sure fire MLB player. Not shitting on him, it is hard to crack the MLB.
You’re forgetting that the minors are filled with every college team’s best pitcher. They improve as well
I'm not forgetting shite. I know from personal experience. I played with a guy that was a #8 overall pick in the draft that went 27-37 with a 4.34 ERA in parts of 8 MLB seasons. On that same team was a 17 year old completely raw kid that couldn't do anything but run fast who played 19 years in MLB.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 1:10 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
He loses leverage because he loses leverage, this isnt debatable. He cant say "I'm going back to college for another year" - its pro baseball or starting another career at that point and because of that teams will request you sign for peanuts if you want to sign with them. This is how the draft has worked forever now.
While you are basically correct on a macro level, you are ignoring the leverage he might gain. Simply put, better players have more leverage. If he could prove he is a first round talent, he would absolutely have more leverage. Scarce resources demand higher prices. Negotiations have worked that way forever too.
None of this is to argue that this would be a wise decision, just providing a counter your point.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 1:41 pm to sharkfhin
quote:
Maybe so. It all depends where he gets selected or whether he wants to go no matter what.
No... you really are not getting it.
Jones could be selected in the 5th-7th rounds this draft and will get an exponentially larger signing bonus than if he were drafted in 1st-3rd rounds next year as a senior.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 1:43 pm to OceanMan
quote:
Simply put, better players have more leverage. If he could prove he is a first round talent, he would absolutely have more leverage.
That's not how it works.
If he is drafted in the first round as a senior he has no leverage, because he has no other baseball option besides going overseas which isn't really an option because Japan has limited international roster spots and they aren't clamoring for American college baseball talent.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 1:50 pm to Broski
quote:no you're right I do understand. I figure he was going to be 40-80th pick. And an offer of more money will be most likely given. I agree he is gone. I personally know about 6/7 mlb scouts. I am also childhood friends with the SVP of baseball operations in Milb. What you are saying is correct. It's just crazy to me that a team will offer this much money to someone with as big a hole in his swing as he does. I however know mlb bases everything off of projection.
the 5th-7th rounds this draft and will get an exponentially larger signing bonus than if he were drafted in 1st-3rd rounds next year as a senior.
This post was edited on 6/27/25 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 6/27/25 at 2:06 pm to DrD
For Jones— the opportunity to be setup for a lifetime won’t be because of his time spent in MLB. Coming back and breaking records that will never be broken at LSU . Being able to write his ticket in the private sector — that’s what will set him up for life & be remembered as the best LSU 1st Baseman forever & ever. And probably a 3x CWS Champion.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 10:43 pm to Broski
quote:
Simply put, better players have more leverage
quote:
That's not how it works.
Yes, that’s exactly how it works.
quote:
If he is drafted in the first round as a senior he has no leverage, because he has no other baseball option besides going overseas which isn't really an option because Japan has limited international roster spots and they aren't clamoring for American college baseball talent.
I wouldn’t expect a team to waste a first round pick not wanting to pay the guy. Does that happen often?
Posted on 6/27/25 at 10:55 pm to OceanMan
quote:
Yes, that’s exactly how it works.
No... it's not.
quote:
I wouldn’t expect a team to waste a first round pick not wanting to pay the guy. Does that happen often?
Are you this stupid?
Teams want to draft seniors in high slot spots because it means they can use more money elsewhere.
Posted on 6/27/25 at 11:02 pm to sharkfhin
He won’t go picks 40-80. The demand for a R/R 1B with only power tool is near the bottom of the demand curve. He probably goes round 7-8 and leaves regardless.
Jones is an all-time LSU player. Not debatable. He’ll be remembered fondly. He should not come back and he won’t.
ETA: 21 year olds get about 90% of slot. SEC/ACC get about 95% of slot. He’ll probably get lower than slot based on positional value. It’s still not comparable to junior leverage or what he has left to prove.
Jones is an all-time LSU player. Not debatable. He’ll be remembered fondly. He should not come back and he won’t.
ETA: 21 year olds get about 90% of slot. SEC/ACC get about 95% of slot. He’ll probably get lower than slot based on positional value. It’s still not comparable to junior leverage or what he has left to prove.
This post was edited on 6/27/25 at 11:07 pm
Posted on 6/28/25 at 5:56 am to LC4Tigers
quote:okay....how much money do you think he will be offered? You can give a rough amount....
ETA: 21 year olds get about 90% of slot. SEC/ACC get about 95% of slot. He’l
Posted on 6/29/25 at 8:19 am to HuntinFishin25
Man, it’d be awesome if he came back next year, but let’s be real, it probably ain’t happening. Coming back for a senior year kills your signing bonus leverage. But if he somehow did return, he’d have a legit shot at two huge accomplishments, breaking the all-time home run record and, if LSU pulls it off in ’26, maybe becoming the first player at LSU with three national titles. Someone correct me if I’m off on that.
This post was edited on 6/29/25 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 6/29/25 at 9:24 am to HuntinFishin25
Would love to see him back but his projected slot is around $750K. He Aint Coming Back!
Posted on 6/29/25 at 10:12 am to SludgeFactory
quote:
He will develop fine under the right coaching.
Pro guys don’t care about strikeouts. It’s just another out. They care about about brute power and ability to change a game with one swing. Mines has that, few others do.
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