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re: Jay Johnson explains how he likes his lineup constructed
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:02 pm to mmcgrath
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:02 pm to mmcgrath
right, when you only need one run, you maximize the probability of scoring one run. Which means you bunt.
The run scoring probabilities from the majors tell you it's the only time it makes sense to bunt. The probabilities for college baseball I would have to think are different and that bunting could make sense more often, but that situation it's a no-brainer.
The run scoring probabilities from the majors tell you it's the only time it makes sense to bunt. The probabilities for college baseball I would have to think are different and that bunting could make sense more often, but that situation it's a no-brainer.
1
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:09 pm to ProjectP2294
I think they have better analytics on this these days based on the batter, speed on the bases, and who’s on deck. Generally, yes, if you need one run in the majors, you bunt to move both runners. In college, like you mentioned, the probabilities would be much different. Bunt defense won’t be as solid, but hitters will have better odds to put the ball in play, too.
In the end, a coach needs to know his team and what they’re capable of. The more data you have, the more you know. We may see a lot of different approaches in OOC.
In the end, a coach needs to know his team and what they’re capable of. The more data you have, the more you know. We may see a lot of different approaches in OOC.
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:19 pm to ell_13
quote:
Bunt defense won’t be as solid, but hitters will have better odds to put the ball in play, too.
There are so many things that go into it, including the fact that the person being asked to bunt may not have ever been asked to bunt in a game since he was 10, if ever.
But the increased probability of putting the ball in play increases the probability of a double play, which is much easier defensive play than cleanly fielding and cleanly throwing a bunt attempt. Especially since the guys we will probably have in the batters box are guys that hit the ball real hard, which can increase the chance of a double play if it's hit on the ground. And the pitcher will obviously be doing everything in their power to make it be hit on the ground.
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:37 pm to ProjectP2294
I don't think Jay will bunt many of the guys hitting 1-6 in the order. He may try to manufacture at times but it won't be a common theme. The 7-9 guys better be really, really good at bunting...especially 8 and 9. 7-9 guys need to be table setters, scratch and claw for whatever they can get, hit by pitches, stay out of double plays...production down there is lagniappe.
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:50 pm to ProjectP2294
I think I’ve been traumatized by watching our batters try to bunt over the last few years
Posted on 2/8/22 at 3:57 pm to Lester Earl
Reading the description, Jay would go:
Morgan - best at bats on the team not named Crews/Berry
Crews - best player
Berry - versatile, lefty
Doughty - 2 out double waiting to happen
McManus/Dugas - both coming out of their shoes
However, I've seen Jay kinda like something along these lines:
Doughty - has had a great fall/spring
Crews
Berry
Morgan - hitting him here is very untraditional but makes some sense
McManus/Dugas
Morgan - best at bats on the team not named Crews/Berry
Crews - best player
Berry - versatile, lefty
Doughty - 2 out double waiting to happen
McManus/Dugas - both coming out of their shoes
However, I've seen Jay kinda like something along these lines:
Doughty - has had a great fall/spring
Crews
Berry
Morgan - hitting him here is very untraditional but makes some sense
McManus/Dugas
Posted on 2/9/22 at 9:02 pm to Lester Earl
Did the podcast get taken down? Can't find it
Posted on 2/10/22 at 9:06 am to Yeti_Chaser
I think so. Look on page 4, there is a link with it from Twitter I posted
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