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Message
re: I’ve lost all respect for Josh Pate
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:37 am to thunderbird1100
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:37 am to thunderbird1100
quote:the line opened at LSU -1.5 and that’s on the road too so don’t know how you explain that one
you can disagree with power ratings all you want, all it is though is what vegas lines would have, which is why Ole Miss is higher than us in the power ratings here....because they are favored over us in vegas
1
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:38 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
the line opened at LSU -1.5 and that’s on the road too so don’t know how you explain that one
The opening line after this past weekends games was favoring Ole Miss, not us.
It also slightly depends on what site you use as they will differ a bit one to the next, there's not just 1 gambling out there for the game
This post was edited on 9/24/25 at 7:41 am
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:40 am to thunderbird1100
The line was LSU -1.5 after this weekends games. That line was set on Sunday and money obviously poured in on ole Miss for the line to have flipped
Point still stands that on a neutral field we’d be favored even if the line was Ole Miss -1.5 all along because that’s WITH home field advantage
Point still stands that on a neutral field we’d be favored even if the line was Ole Miss -1.5 all along because that’s WITH home field advantage
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:42 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
The line was LSU -1.5 after this weekends games. T
Ole Miss opens -2.5
That was on fanduel which his model is supposed to replicate as close as possible
This post was edited on 9/24/25 at 7:43 am
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:45 am to thunderbird1100
that’s quite a spread/arbitrage opportunity if LSU opened +2.5 on FanDuel because LSU was -1.5 on ESPN sportsbook on Sunday. I saw it with my own eyes 
Another poster saw the same on DraftKings:
LSU opens as -1.5 favorite against Ole Miss.
Posted by jbraua 9/21/25 at 8:21 am
On DraftKings.
Another poster saw the same on DraftKings:
LSU opens as -1.5 favorite against Ole Miss.
Posted by jbraua 9/21/25 at 8:21 am
On DraftKings.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:48 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Well fanduel is the only relevant line here as thats what he compares his model up against, and they were -2.5 OM
Also the difference in 9 and 15 (our ratings rankings) is obviously pretty small if they were favored by -2.5 at home it would basically be a pick'em at a neutral site....so those cluster of teams would all be pretty close; granted they could basically be a pick'em against us but favored by more than us over say a team like Indiana as well
Because they are #9 and we are #15 doesnt mean we are favored over every team behind us and they are favored over every team #10-#14 either. Ultimately its comparing yourself to all other teams than adding all that up into a power rating ultimately
Also the difference in 9 and 15 (our ratings rankings) is obviously pretty small if they were favored by -2.5 at home it would basically be a pick'em at a neutral site....so those cluster of teams would all be pretty close; granted they could basically be a pick'em against us but favored by more than us over say a team like Indiana as well
Because they are #9 and we are #15 doesnt mean we are favored over every team behind us and they are favored over every team #10-#14 either. Ultimately its comparing yourself to all other teams than adding all that up into a power rating ultimately
This post was edited on 9/24/25 at 7:53 am
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:49 am to fastlane
I'm sure his feelings are hurt you don't respect him.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 7:49 am to grizzlylongcut
quote:
I hope that Kelly or whoever is in charge of those things tells him to frick off next time he wants to bring his fgt arse to BR and he expects the Red carpet rolled out for him. They should close and bar the gates and have him shoot his bullshite from elsewhere.
Why exactly do you think LSU should do this?
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:08 am to fastlane
It seems he has started to do things just for clicks.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:08 am to fastlane
He was wrong about Nuss being a top five QB
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:16 am to fastlane
Ole Miss verifiably would not be favored on a neutral site over LSU given that they are only -1.5 at home against us. I asked him this before but never got a reply - does his model (which factors in recruiting rankings from 247) re-rate players on a team's current roster based on their portal ranking, or does it default to their high school rating? Delane, Braelin, Bauer, Haulcey, Cooley, etc. would all be severely underrated if they're still being rated based on HS.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:26 am to fastlane
Dude has a massive ego. He is always posting pictures and gifs of himself and speaking in 3rd person. Who does that
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:31 am to iamandykeim
quote:
Ole Miss verifiably would not be favored on a neutral site over LSU given that they are only -1.5 at home against us. I asked him this before but never got a reply - does his model (which factors in recruiting rankings from 247) re-rate players on a team's current roster based on their portal ranking, or does it default to their high school rating? Delane, Braelin, Bauer, Haulcey, Cooley, etc. would all be severely underrated if they're still being rated based on HS.
Again you dont have to be favored by every team behind you, to be power rated AHEAD of them. In fact just about every team will be a dog or pick'em to teams behind them, but ultimately fare out better when compared to ALL teams vs. the teams behind them which is why they are ahead of them.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:33 am to fastlane
He is getting paid. His pseudorant about SEC officiating was humorous.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:39 am to Swamp Frog x
quote:
I’ve been saying this dude is a turd for a few years now. Don’t know why so many people follow him
He does a good job at breaking down plays.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:39 am to White Tiger
quote:
His pseudorant about SEC officiating was humorous.
I think he was dead on here. Why is it there seems to be nothing more than an apology from the SEC when an official or officials get game deciding calls wrong (and oftentimes no apology, they stand with them), but something completely out of the schools control like rushing the field gets a half million dollar fine from the school to the SEC
A bit of a double standard.
A coach like Freeze could ultimately lose his job because he lost this OU game if he cant win enough outside of that this year, and it could have potentially come down to a very poor missed call as well. But all Auburn/he gets out of that from the SEC is a "sorry", no punishment for officials, no money back to the school, etc etc
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:44 am to fastlane
Josh Pate got paid talking about college football. Good for him.
There is a reason they play the game. Who cares.
There is a reason they play the game. Who cares.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:54 am to thunderbird1100
quote:Well that's not how Pate explains it. He always gives examples of what a team at #5 would be favored over #9 when he unveils it every week.
Again you dont have to be favored by every team behind you, to be power rated AHEAD of them. In fact just about every team will be a dog or pick'em to teams behind them, but ultimately fare out better when compared to ALL teams vs. the teams behind them which is why they are ahead of them.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:54 am to LSBoosie
Because frick him.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 8:59 am to fastlane
quote:
I get it Josh, these aren’t real rankings and it’s a computer model and you ask FanDuel. You’re still wrong.
He says almost every show how he disagrees with what the model says on a few teams.
If you shtie on him for his bad preseason takes, shite on everyone. 90% of people are wrong. That's why they play the games.
Clemson takes get a pass. There is no reason they should be this bad.
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