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re: I'm actually more confident after last night

Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:47 am to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141129 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:47 am to
quote:

The key to UF is not walking guys. We win last night without walking the bases loaded.

we head to extra innings if someone just covers 2nd base on the sac fly
Posted by Box Geauxrilla
Member since Jun 2013
19118 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:48 am to
quote:


Game 1 winners wind up winning the series over 70% of the time.


100% of LSU teams who make it to the finals go on to win the CWS.

100% of Florida teams who make it to the finals go on to lose the CWS.
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 11:49 am
Posted by BrookhavenBengal
Brookhaven, MS
Member since Oct 2007
3423 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:48 am to
quote:

I feel much more confident in the next 2 days than I did coming into yesterday.

I like our odds boys.

Me and you, both.

Singer was dealing misery, striking our guys out a record TWELVE times, we handed them some runs, and we STILL almost won.
Posted by ibleedprplngld
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
4303 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:49 am to
quote:

You shut the frick up. The stats are what they are. I realize you're probably just barely literate and that math is probably a difficult concept for you, but it's true nonetheless.


Ouch, what an internet bad arse you are.

It's clear you've never coached or played baseball. Florida's best shot at a win was last night. Hence the reason PM didn't pitch Poche on 4 days rest. Florida does not have their ace available for the series and just pitched their #2. So tell me, are you sure you want to rely on the stats given the situation?



Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59072 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Game 1 winners wind up winning the series over 70% of the time.


Is that because it's such a huge advantage to win game 1 or simply because the better team usually wins? Like if somebody said the home team wins more NFL playoff games is that because of home field advantage or just because they were the better team and that's why they had home field in the first place.

My point is that with the way the pitching was set up, though they won, I'm not sure Florida proved to be the better team(they may well be). What's the % of teams that win the 2nd game winning the series? I think tonight's winner will win the championship. Obviously, much more pressure on us, though.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20379 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:54 am to
quote:

quote:
I like our odds boys.


Game 1 winners wind up winning the series over 70% of the time.

Read that, like, a million times.

Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... it's either a sweep (figures in the game 1 winners), or it's a momentum shift.

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.

My uneducated guess is that the sweeps and the 2-3 winners are the two highest.
Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
58691 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Ouch, what an internet bad arse you are.


Says the guy who started with the lame-arse, childish comments.

quote:

It's clear you've never coached or played baseball.


OK, well this is not true, but please impress us all with your thrilling life of playing high school ball and coaching travel ball in South Louisiana. I'm sure we're all waiting eagerly in anticipation.

quote:

Florida's best shot at a win was last night. Hence the reason PM didn't pitch Poche on 4 days rest. Florida does not have their ace available for the series and just pitched their #2. So tell me, are you sure you want to rely on the stats given the situation?


"Rely on the stats"? Do yourself and your blood pressure a favor. Look down, pull your panties out, and brush that sand out of your vagina. The stats are what they are. I provided no commentary other than the stats.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
260404 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:58 am to
If the tigers win game 2, they'll win game three. Last night was a mismatch and the tigers hung in there. Pitching favors LSU going forward
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59072 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:59 am to
quote:

Read that, like, a million times. Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... i


I beat you by 1 post.
Posted by DirtyMike
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Aug 2014
1175 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

Game 1 winners wind up winning the series over 70% of the time


I am not sure what the pitching situation was in those other series but tonight and Wednesday (if we make it there) heavily favors LSU.
Posted by ibleedprplngld
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
4303 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

OK, well this is not true, but please impress us all with your thrilling life of playing high school ball and coaching travel ball in South Louisiana. I'm sure we're all waiting eagerly in anticipation.


Haha this honestly deserves no response, but hey I'll give you your 2 seconds. You are right about one thing, i've been coaching travel ball in South Louisiana for awhile now.

quote:

I provided no commentary other than the stats.


Here's a stat for you, going off memory alone from the commentary last night.

ETA: The 2 posts below explains it better than I did. LSU wins tonight, the stats favor them.
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 12:10 pm
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
24003 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... it's either a sweep (figures in the game 1 winners), or it's a momentum shift.

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.



I already posted those numbers based off of my memory from the broadcast.

Game 1 Winners have swept in two games 7 times. (7/14 = 50%)

Game 1 Winners that lose game 2 have also lost game 3 four times. (4/14 = 28.6%)

Game 1 Winners that lose game 2 have won game 3 three times. (3/14 = 21.4%)

So, for the 71% total for game 1 winners it's 7+3 = 10, and then 10/14 = 71%.



HOWEVER: Once the series goes to three games, game 1 winners have only won 43% of the time.

Tigers are in good shape should they win tonight...obviously in better shape than if they don't win.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20379 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.

My uneducated guess is that the sweeps and the 2-3 winners are the two highest.

Ok, I looked:

Since it went to a 3 game series, there have been 14 champs.

There have been 7 sweeps; the other 7 years it has gone 3 games.

Teams that won games 2 & 3 have won 4 times, teams that won games 1 and 3 have won 3 times.

So:
Teams that win Game 1 have won 10 out of 14 series,
but
Teams that win Game 2 have won 11 out of 14.

Teams that won Game 1, but lose Game 2, have won 3 out of 14.

Key game is tonight.

edit- you posted already
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 12:08 pm
Posted by TigerAlum93
Member since Sep 2010
3004 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:09 pm to
True, but it is also about match-ups, and one has to like Poche and Lange over the remaining Florida pitchers.
Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
58691 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:11 pm to
Thank you for posting that info.
Posted by Paddyshack
Land of the Free
Member since Sep 2015
8268 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

OK, well this is not true, but please impress us all with your thrilling life of playing high school ball and coaching travel ball in South Louisiana. I'm sure we're all waiting eagerly in anticipation.

Funny I got the same impression of you the other day and you hit me with the same exact "insult."
quote:


"Rely on the stats"? Do yourself and your blood pressure a favor. Look down, pull your panties out, and brush that sand out of your vagina. The stats are what they are. I provided no commentary other than the stats.


You're insufferable
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 12:13 pm
Posted by okietiger
Chelsea F.C. Fan
Member since Oct 2005
40970 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:15 pm to
Right there with you.

Hell we almost stole the game from them which we had no business winning with that pitching matchup.
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 12:28 pm
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20379 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:18 pm to
Thanks to everybody!

So ESPN is just posting random percentages to amuse the audience; you HAVE to watch, because each game is the key game

I think Game 1 matters if it's undefeated Oregon St going against, say, Texas A&M... that series is a probable sweep. OSU in 2.

When we get evenly matched teams, sweeps likely don't occur (although sometimes, like South Carolina- they went extra innings a game in both years they won).
When it goes beyond a sweep, it's basically a tossup, with the edge going to the first game loser.

I imagine emotions and confidence coming out of game 2 (we staved off elimination vs now we don't have slack) plays some factor.

Wouldn't be surprised at all, if you dig through the games, if the Game 3 winners had similar pitching rotations as LSU- had to wait til game 2, to get back to the heart of the staff.
Posted by Mo Jeaux
Member since Aug 2008
58691 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Funny I got the same impression of you the other day and you hit me with the same exact "insult."


Kewl. It wasn't exactly the same though. I just call them like I see them. I find the guys slinging insults at others by appealing to the "authority" of their glory days to be simultaneously funny and pathetic. It apparently hits some nerves.

quote:

You're insufferable


K.
Posted by ibleedprplngld
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
4303 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Kewl. It wasn't exactly the same though. I just call them like I see them. I find the guys slinging insults at others by appealing to the "authority" of their glory days to be simultaneously funny and pathetic. It apparently hits some nerves.


It's a message board, man. I have a feeling you'd be be shocked who some of the people on hear actually are. I'm damn certain there are quite a few former players from multiple sports on here. Slinging dirt just makes you look like a never was.
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