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re: If we get a weak 4, which we should, start Money and roll with the HRs he'll give up
Posted on 5/22/23 at 5:42 pm to King Joey
Posted on 5/22/23 at 5:42 pm to King Joey
quote:
But it's not quite that simple. On a deeper level, it's, do you want your bullpen game to come against the 4 seed's ace or a 2 or 3 seed's #3?
I get that. I'm just thinking about how this group pitched in the non-conference compared to how they looked against SEC. Night and day difference.
For whatever reason I fear trying to close out a 2 seed with johnny wholestaff more than LSU’s lineup facing a small conference ace.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 6:31 pm to skullhawk
You don't waste Skenes in a 1-4 matchup, plain and simple.
Let's step back and consider the regional lineup, for a moment:
LSU (and any other national seed) at 1
2 seed will be decent, but fairly weak. If you're strong enough to be considered a regional host, but fall to the 2 slot, you're going to be paired with a similar team that did get a regional. Meaning, 17-24 should be the #2's at the 9-16 regionals, not the top 8.
In other words, teams like Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky etc are not going to be #2 seeds at the top 8 regionals, they will either host, or be at a lesser regional. *I think that eliminates a team like Southern Miss from coming to BR, they're too good right now.
At the top 8 regionals, the 3 seed should match up well with the 2.
The 4 seed, especially at the top regionals, should be auto-bid cannon fodder.
All that considered, it means LSU should face someone they can squash pretty easily in a 1-4 matchup, and the 2 seed will need to throw their ace against the 3 (and vice-versa) to have any advantage. If they have a solid rotation, their 2nd guy will be the one they throw at us in the Winners Bracket game... and Skenes makes that basically an auto-win.
The loser then goes with their 3rd pitcher, against the survivor of the loser's game (who will have burned their 2nd pitcher in that game), also likely tossing their 3rd pitcher (really small chance they flip the order, if the 4 seed is completely terrible after game 1).
Whoever survives that would face the winner's bracket 3rd pitcher, with bullpen/midweek guys. In our case, that's Coleman + bullpen, vs a midweek dude.
Let's step back and consider the regional lineup, for a moment:
LSU (and any other national seed) at 1
2 seed will be decent, but fairly weak. If you're strong enough to be considered a regional host, but fall to the 2 slot, you're going to be paired with a similar team that did get a regional. Meaning, 17-24 should be the #2's at the 9-16 regionals, not the top 8.
In other words, teams like Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky etc are not going to be #2 seeds at the top 8 regionals, they will either host, or be at a lesser regional. *I think that eliminates a team like Southern Miss from coming to BR, they're too good right now.
At the top 8 regionals, the 3 seed should match up well with the 2.
The 4 seed, especially at the top regionals, should be auto-bid cannon fodder.
All that considered, it means LSU should face someone they can squash pretty easily in a 1-4 matchup, and the 2 seed will need to throw their ace against the 3 (and vice-versa) to have any advantage. If they have a solid rotation, their 2nd guy will be the one they throw at us in the Winners Bracket game... and Skenes makes that basically an auto-win.
The loser then goes with their 3rd pitcher, against the survivor of the loser's game (who will have burned their 2nd pitcher in that game), also likely tossing their 3rd pitcher (really small chance they flip the order, if the 4 seed is completely terrible after game 1).
Whoever survives that would face the winner's bracket 3rd pitcher, with bullpen/midweek guys. In our case, that's Coleman + bullpen, vs a midweek dude.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 7:19 pm to ccox11
quote:
That gives you Money, Cooper, Collins, Ackenhousen, Little, and Dutton to get through the 4 seed. I'm sorry but if you can't beat a team from the Southland with those 6 pitchers, you probably just aren't good enough to win it all anyway.
5 pitchers.
If I’m Jay, Christian Little has thrown his last pitch at LSU.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:34 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Also, for the sake of this conversation:
Blake Money in SEC games: 8.1 IP over 6 appearances. 0 HR allowed.
Wow I didn’t realize that. That’s encouraging af. Thanks.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:37 pm to Meauxjeaux
Come in ‘guns a blazin’. Set the tone and push others to beat your best. I’d treat it just like the CWS.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 8:53 pm to Godfather1
Nah you will see him in the SEC tournament or mop up duty in regional play against a 4 seed if it gets out of hand. He just needs a lot of space and what I mean by space is we have to be up by quite a bit.
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:06 pm to Meauxjeaux
In a perfect world Hurd or Floyd could easily do their part to win game 2(winner's bracket)....it would be fantastic to pitch Skenes in the final. Game 1 is the key to winning the regional in 3 games. I do know this, this regional will NOT be easy.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:24 pm to skullhawk
quote:
I'm not sure LSU has any other choice but to hold Floyd for game 3. If LSU is pitching their game three bullpen guys against a 2 or 3 seed with three games worth of swings in the box, they will get MS State game 3 shelled.
The flip side of that is that LSU absolutely cannot afford to slip into the losers’ bracket. Is the gamble in Game 1 worth the potential consequence if it doesn’t pay off? The question is whether a 4-seed pitching their ace is an easier or tougher opponent than a 2-seed throwing their 4th starter with a depleted bullpen.
Posted on 5/23/23 at 1:08 am to Godfather1
quote:I expect we'll see him in the SEC tourney.
If I’m Jay, Christian Little has thrown his last pitch at LSU.
I honestly don't think it's all control, I think it's a mental thing. He can probably throw strikes warming up, and he's so on edge about placement that he's missing.
I think the tighter strike zone, combined with the lack of garbage time missed in those run-rule games, has fricked with the heads of a lot of our bullpen. They either throw balls, or meatballs. Nobody can throw a strike that will consistently get just a ground ball that your infielders have 75% chance of fielding.
Posted on 5/23/23 at 2:11 am to Meauxjeaux
That would be nice, but it also comes down to Floyd being good Floyd. He's not some guarantee. If we start 2-0 with Money and Skenes, but lose game three with Floyd, we're in a rough spot, pitching-wise, for a game 4. Losing game 1 would be extremely tough. I've said I think Hurd should start on Wednesday, and if he does, and it goes well, I'd start him game 1 of regionals, unless that 4 seed is just really, really weak. Don't want to take chances if we get one of those pesky 4's like those Southern teams that have come here and put up a scare.
I don't need to use that other 4 seed, who shall remain nameless, as an example. We all know that was a fluke year for a team like that to be a 4.
I don't need to use that other 4 seed, who shall remain nameless, as an example. We all know that was a fluke year for a team like that to be a 4.
This post was edited on 5/23/23 at 2:18 am
Posted on 5/23/23 at 2:14 am to Meauxjeaux
I think that was the game plan all along. Start skenes g2 and Hurd g3.
Posted on 5/23/23 at 2:51 am to 3rdPart Tiger
quote:
Southland is probably Nicholls St.
In our 12-2 run rule win vs. Nicholls we actually started Little (1.2) went wholestaff ( Guidry,Hurd,Buck, actually used Helmers 1 inning etc..) 4 hits 2 runs.
Obviously I wouldn't start Little again but just going back over stats..
Nicholls St vs. LSU 12-2 stats
This post was edited on 5/23/23 at 3:03 am
Posted on 5/23/23 at 8:10 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Midweek opponents don't start their number 1 guy against us.
I’m curious whether a 4-seed would actually start their ace against Skenes in a non-elimination game.
I know tournament play is different and all, but it seems like saving their ace for game 2 might actually be the smart play if Skenes starts game 1. The bigger underdog they are vs. Skenes, the more it makes sense to hold their #1 guy. Of course, that assumes they feel they have a deep enough staff to win 4 games in the loser’s bracket.
Still I wonder if it might be a scenario where you either start Skenes against a 4-seed team’s #3 guy, or start someone else against their ace.
I don’t think we start Skenes in game 1 regardless. Better question is whether we go with Floyd or the wholestaff approach.
Posted on 5/23/23 at 9:16 am to Meauxjeaux
Seems like a smart play to me.
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