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doya2
LSU Fan
Charenton
Member since Jan 2005
6108 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

We’d have to win SEC tourney.


Depends on how we finish the regular season. Making the finals might be enuf.


LSUTigKyl
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since May 2009
972 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

Reasons not to. So many bad losses


This isn’t really true. LSU has 2 bad losses - SFA and Vandy. The losses are piling up which is a problem but the other 6 SEC losses and the losses to marquette/ND are all losses to probably tourney teams. Georgia is fringe I suppose.


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JR Hamilsbach
Member since Oct 2010
674 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

I've said before that we WANT to finish 8th or 9th in the SEC, because we want a shot at Auburn in the SEC Tournament.


I don't want to play Auburn. While an upset win over Auburn in the SEC Tournament would be huge for this team if we can in fact close out at 4-2, Auburn is an exceptional team and we didn't match up well with them at all when we played them. I'd love to see them draw Arkansas in the SECT. We match-up very well against them and that'd be another solid win and resume builder. Just my opinion, but Auburn very well might run us out of the gym. There's some other good teams in the field that I think we actually have a great shot to beat. Close out at 4-2 and we beat something like a Vandy and an Arkansas before losing a close game in the semifinals or something like that and then that's a pretty impressive way to close out the season.


thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
50804 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
4-2 puts us at 9-9 so I would say no without some SECT wins. That would put our RPI in the high 40s low 50s probably pre-
SECT.

It would be miracle for this team to make the NCAAT, I am expecting an NIT bid and to finish 7-11 or 8-10.

A win vs. Alabama this week would be very huge though.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 8:35 am


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11
Tiger Ugly
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
8080 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

don't want to play Auburn. While an upset win over Auburn in the SEC Tournament would be huge for this team if we can in fact close out at 4-2, Auburn is an exceptional team and we didn't match up well with them at all when we played them


I agree and I don't agree with Bayou that we can't get in the tournament at 9-9 with two tourney wins, his projection ranking of low 70's stops after the regular season and I think he's using a matrix that slightly undersells how far we can move up if certain things happen.

If we go 9-9 with a win over Missouri (Top 50 team) and win 2 games in the SEC tourney and one of them is against another top 50 that does not have to be Auburn (as there are several in the SEC), we would have a winning record overall in one of the nations top 3 conferences and 7 top-50 win. We are at the very least very much in the conversation if that happens.

I agree, I don't think we can beat Auburn, very bad matchup for us.

In fact I don't think we'll finish 4-2, more likely 3-3. But I do think 4-2 with 2 tourney win very much puts us in the conversation if the wins come against the right folks and also some of the top 50's we beat finish strong.


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10
Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
10616 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

Lol

A 4-2 finish would put our RPI in the low 70s. That would be the lowest RPI to ever make the field in the history of the NCAA Tournament

Some of you honestly have no idea what you are talking about.


The selection criteria has changed this season. RPI isn't the only metric looked at. KenPom and BPI are also in the mix. Both rank LSU significantly higher than the RPI metric

RPI 77
KenPom: 61
BPI 65

LSU currently has as many or more top 50 wins than almost every other team in the country. This week gives them two chances to add to that total. They also may have one more shot with Miss. St. depending on what shakes out by that time.

The reality is that 9-9 COULD be enough to get LSU in. It all depends on who those 9 wins are against. Plus, they don't HAVE to play Auburn in the SECT to get a few nice wins. There are currently eight SEC teams in the top 50.

Wins over Bama and Mizzou would probably help much more than say losses @ UGA and USC would hurt


BayouBengals03
Michigan State Fan
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
98583 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
I'll just have to disagree. Yes, the way teams have been selected is being "changed." However, we still aren't sure exactly how the selection committee is going to combine all these metrics. They are certainly making an effort to go away from RPI as one of the main selection criteria, and that's good, because it is a very flawed metric. I'm not sure I buy much changing in one year, though. Certainly not a team with the lowest RPI ever making the field in year 1, but we'll see.

An ESPN analytics guy named Seth Walder wrote a good article a couple of days ago, outlining how the selection committee reveal on Sunday would give us some hints as to how the committee is using these metrics. I can't link, because I'm on mobile, but you should give it a read. It's titled "committee has right numbers, but will it use them correctly?"

Basically, he said if a team like Gonzaga is named in the top 16, it would show us that the committee is really considering all metrics and valuing more than just strength of record and RPI. If a team like Clemson is in the top 16, it would tell us the opposite.

You guessed it - Clemson was in the top 16, projected as a 3 seed and the 9th ranked team overall. Gonzaga was no where to be found.

But yes, a win at Alabama would go a long way in terms of our tournament chances.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 11:54 am


Tiger Ugly
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
8080 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

The selection criteria has changed this season. RPI isn't the only metric looked at. KenPom and BPI are also in the mix. Both rank LSU significantly higher than the RPI metric


The other metrics are increasing in significance each year and RPI losing some of it's. RPI ain't the only belle at the ball anymore.

quote:

The reality is that 9-9 COULD be enough to get LSU in. It all depends on who those 9 wins are against. Plus, they don't HAVE to play Auburn in the SECT to get a few nice wins. There are currently eight SEC teams in the top 50.


I agree with all this....9-9 and two wins in the SEC tourney and 7 wins vs. top 50...we are in the discussion and seriously.


BayouBengals03
Michigan State Fan
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
98583 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

9-9 and two wins in the SEC tourney and 7 wins vs. top 50

That's a big difference compared to the people saying if we go 4-2 we're definitely in.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 12:41 pm


Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
10616 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

I'll just have to disagree. Yes, the way teams have been selected is being "changed." However, we still aren't sure exactly how the selection committee is going to combine all these metrics. They are certainly making an effort to go away from RPI as one of the main selection criteria, and that's good, because it is a very flawed metric. I'm not sure I buy much changing in one year, though. Certainly not a team with the lowest RPI ever making the field in year 1, but we'll see.

An ESPN analytics guy named Seth Walder wrote a good article a couple of days ago, outlining how the selection committee reveal on Sunday would give us some hints as to how the committee is using these metrics. I can't link, because I'm on mobile, but you should give it a read. It's titled "committee has right numbers, but will it use them correctly?"

Basically, he said if a team like Gonzaga is named in the top 16, it would show us that the committee is really considering all metrics and valuing more than just strength of record and RPI. If a team like Clemson is in the top 16, it would tell us the opposite.

You guessed it - Clemson was in the top 16, projected as a 3 seed and the 9th ranked team overall. Gonzaga was no where to be found.

But yes, a win at Alabama would go a long way in terms of our tournament chances.


I agree with that. It looks like they MAY be placing the most emphasis on number of "Tier 1" wins and SOS

Gonzaga has 5 Tier 1 wins. But their SOS is 126
Clemson has 4 Tier 1 wins. But their SOS is 20

IF that is what the committee thinks are the two most important elements, then LSU COULD have an argument (depending, obviously, on what happens this week and the rest of the season).

LSU (currently) has 5 Tier 1 wins with a SOS of 43.

Let's compare that with current bubble teams (tier 1 wins/SOS)

NC State 4/56
Texas 5/11
USC 2/40
Kansas St. 4/80
Boise St. 0/112
Miss. St. 1/90
LSU 5/43

Of that group, Texas is the only team with clearly better numbers. RPI-wise NC State is "in" with a 72 RPI. K-State is "in" with a 66 RPI. Some of the other teams (Boise, Miss. St.) have much better RPI rankings but virtually no big wins.

This week is HUGE for LSU. The SOS should improve into the high 30's just by virtue of playing two top 50 teams. LSU MUST get at least one win this week. Two would be enormous.


go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
5375 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
Yes, as long as we win the SEC tourney.


BayouBengals03
Michigan State Fan
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
98583 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
The bitch in this whole thing is that our first game in the SEC Tournament is probably going to be against a good team. Now, that's not bad in terms of building our resume, as it will probably be against an RPI top 50 opponent. The part that's a bitch is that if we lose that game we are almost assuredly toast.



lsuohiofan
LSU Fan
Carrollton,Ohio
Member since Oct 2011
454 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
20 wins to get in! Period! Especially with our loss record.

A&M wins did not help us at all.


RidiculousHype
LSU Fan
GOTC: 9-6 FINAL (OT)
Member since Sep 2007
5167 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

A&M wins did not help us at all.


Come on


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11
The Truth 34
Los Angeles Dodgers Fan
Member since May 2010
33698 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

A&M wins did not help us at all.


please explain this.


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20
BayouWolf
Member since Dec 2009
231 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

A&M wins did not help us at all.


Huh? You mean 2 top 25 RPI wins (one on the road) don’t help us?? Would love to hear your logic.


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10
tigernnola
LSU Fan
NOLA
Member since Sep 2016
516 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
Doubt it - NIT bound


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PiscesTiger
LSU Fan
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
37927 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
No. Need to go 5-1. That would give us an overall winning SEC record. We need one of those wins to be Bama (a high Quadrant 1 win). We can only afford to lose to Mizzou or maybe State.

We then need to win the first 3 games of the Sec Tournament. If we are 10-8, that should give us a 7 seed, give or take. We must win that first game against a UGA; win 2nd against a UT; win 3rd against a UK/Bama.

Win 8 of the next 10, postseason included.

The SFA game LOOMS large.

I think 22-13 would get us in the dance as a 10.

We lose to Bama tomorrow night and we then have to win SEC Tourney.

BIG, BIG wins to go along with a long-shot 8 and 2 finish. We defeated Michigan on a neutral court; swept A&M and Arkansas; and beat Houston. Bama added to that list and wins over other top 50...it'd be hard to keep us out.

Realistically? NO chance. NIT #2-3 seed with an extra game in the PMAC. And we should be okay with this. The Calvary are on their way for 18-19.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 6:50 pm


PiscesTiger
LSU Fan
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
37927 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

A&M wins did not help us at all.



Said no one ever.


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10
dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
162474 posts

re: If we finish 4-2 can we make the NCAA tourney?
quote:

The SFA game LOOMS large.


Yes it does.... BUT this team is not gonna do what everyone is hoping for.... Just not there yet...........


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