re: Hurricane Gustav

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Gee thats funny because I can garantee I know more about global ocean models than anyone here unless there are other posters from NAVOCEANO,FNMOC or FSU.. I can tell you that over 3 days out many of the models are in fact useless. Over 4 days out and its a shot in the dark. Many ensembles and model runs are put on supercomputers because weather ocean modeling is one of the hardest things to predict in science with infinte variables. But yea I would say over 3 days out is not worth looking at unless you want to scare people.

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Okay, well, just to make us feel better why don't you tell us when they were off in their forecast (beyond the projected cone) in recent years. I think everyone realizes that the cone is wide so there are variables built into the forecast.

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But we didn't. The mandatory evacuation order didn't go out until Sunday morning, less than 24 hours before katrina hit.

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okay, my bad. I didn't realize that. That does make me feel better.

fay had a projection at least 6 days out, and it was right freakin on. The one that hit the northern mexico had a week out projection, also dead on. Thats WTF i'm talking about, do you have any idea wtf you are talking about?

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fay had a projection at least 6 days out, and it was right freakin on

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Which model?? Fay was all over the place I dont know anyone that got it 6 days out..

How was that possible when Fay formed on Aug 15 and hit florida on Aug 18?? You do know its a hell of a lot easier to track a weak TD/TS than a hurricane right??

8 posts since 2005 hmm nice alter.. Look if people dont want to know that with all our science we can only reasonably predict hurricane movement within a 2-3 day timeframe so be it.. Ignorance is bliss.

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Models All over Da Place...

Since most of you already surf the web & have seen the model predictions, I begin by saying that the models from last night were clearly wrong in the initial movement of Gustav since he remained nearly stationary over Haiti resulting in weakening to a Trop. Storm. So why do so many of you "model purists" still want to believe these models at 3,4 or 5 days? I am not going to hype this storm. As I said last night, Friday MAY BE our decision day IF we even have to make any decisions. Since many of you read Dr. Masters blog on Weather Underground, I thought he presented a reasonable explanation of all the UNCERTAINTY in the models. Plus NHC even stated, "THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL ININTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. "...referring to days 3, 4, & 5. I like reasonable people. I dislike those who want to predict landfall beyond 2-3 days. That serves no purpose except to heighten our already frayed nerves.

So let's get back to the future. This morning's VIPIR run (not available on the web...you gotta pay for it) continues to predict a northward turn across Florida on Friday and up the east coast of Florida away from us. This morning's GFS now agrees with VIPIR. What we have to see is that turn to the north. I'd love to see Gustav keep moving more NW since that would take him over Cuba & not allow him to strengthen as most models do that keep him over water. NHC has shifted their track more to the east with us near the "bullseye". As I have often mentioned..."I want to be the bullseye at 5 days since that means it will goes either side of that". I still feel that way. In fact I think NHC will keep slowly shifting the track to the east. Bottom line...until Gustav gets to the Gulf...guessing just makes people nervous for little reason. I will continue to try to be the voice of reason.

Model runs wrong?? NEVA They had Fay right 6 days out long before it was called Fay.

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stated that LSU Officials were meeting in a cabient meeting today at 3 to decide.

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3pm on WED?

Hell the storm model runs are shifting east. Baton Rouge may not even get a drop of rain

true, just stating what they said during the press conf.

they aren't worries about the storm for the game, its the CONTRAFLOW and people getting in and out.

At least have 2 more RECON flights into the storm to get more data to put into the models before making such a haste decision.