Hurricane Gustav

Gustav continues to intensify early this morning and currently has maximum winds of 85 mph and a minimum pressure of 984 millibars. Satellite imagery is showing a organizing storm and it appears that Gustav is definitely not done intensifying before it tracks over southwestern Haiti late this afternoon into the first half of tonight. After Gustav tracks over southwestern Haiti, the hurricane is forecast to be over extremely warm waters with relatively light shear and it is expected that Gustav will be a major hurricane and may reach Category 4 strength in the northwestern Caribbean from Friday through Saturday. In fact, both the GFDL and HWRF model forecasts indicate that Gustav may be an even stronger hurricane with the GFDL forecasting a 160 mph Category 5 hurricane on Saturday and the HWRF model forecasting Gustav to become a 150 to 155 mph Category 4 hurricane by late Saturday night. All indications are that Gustav will be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late this week into this weekend.
Gustav is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 9 mph. The latest track model guidance is showing that Gustav should turn back to the west or west-northwest during the next 24 to 36 hours as a upper level trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to move to the east away from Gustav, leaving a ridge of high pressure over the Bahamas and Florida. The latest global models have come into much better agreement that Gustav will turn to the west or west-northwest within the next 24 to 36 hours due to the building ridge of high pressure.
It looks to me that Gustav will track through the very warm waters somewhere between the north coast of Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. After that, Gustav will track into the northwestern Caribbean south of Cuba on Friday and Saturday where I expect it to intensify to Category 4 strength. I then expect Gustav to track right through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern most Gulf of Mexico late Saturday night as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. All interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean should be aware that a very powerful and dangerous hurricane could affect you late this week into this weekend.
Beyond late Saturday night, the global models have different ideas on where they want to track Gustav. The Canadian model is forecasting a landfall on the central Texas coast on Labor Day. The NOGAPS model is forecasting a landfall on the central Gulf Coast next Tuesday. The European model is forecasting a northern Mexico landfall around next Tuesday. The overall synoptic situation once Gustav gets into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend will highly depend on the timing of a departing eastern trough of low pressure and a building ridge of high pressure that will move in behind the departing trough. If the departing trough is able to pick up Gustav, then a eastern Gulf Coast hit may occur as early as Labor Day. If the trough of low pressure leaves Gustav behind and the ridge of high pressure pushes Gustav further west, then a central or western Gulf Coast hit may occur late Labor Day or next Tuesday. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast should pay close attention to the forecast for Gustav.
I will be monitoring this situation very closely and keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning. I will try to issue an update to this discussion sometime this evening between 7 and 9 pm EDT.



This guy is usually pretty accurate.

quote:

---

This guy is usually pretty accurate.

---

What guy?

a red x

quote:

---

a red x

---

Smart alec!

quote:

---

quote:


If the departing trough is able to pick up Gustav, then a eastern Gulf Coast hit may occur as early as Labor Day. If the trough of low pressure leaves Gustav behind and the ridge of high pressure pushes Gustav further west, then a central or western Gulf Coast hit may occur late Labor Day or next Tuesday. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast should pay close attention to the forecast for Gustav.






quote:


This guy is usually pretty accurate.






So, a guy that says 'It MAY hit the EASTERN, CENTRAL, or WESTERN gulf coast' is "usually pretty accurate"? The hell you say!

---

Yes he's pretty accurate in the information that he presents. He takes into account all models and bases his opinions off of that. It is IMPOSSIBLE for any to predict a US ladfall when Gustav is this far out. Thanks for being a smart arse when I'm just trying to provide another informed opinion on the storm.

quote:

---

Yes he's pretty accurate in the information that he presents. He takes into account all models and bases his opinions off of that. It is IMPOSSIBLE for any to predict a US ladfall when Gustav is this far out. Thanks for being a smart arse when I'm just trying to provide another informed opinion on the storm.

---

But ths site is full of experts who can predict seasons, careers, ect., so why can't they predict the weather as well...

Not a shot at the poster

This thing is getting pretty nasty real fast.

That's bad. I sure as hell hope that doesn't hold.

Has anybody ever had to evacuate Baton Rouge from a storm and would a storm ever make it possible to do so.