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How did vegas know?

Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:25 pm
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69286 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:25 pm
It never ceases to amaze me how good vegas is.

Anyone who actually watched cbb this year would have made a smart guess that this would have been a 20-25 point loss.

The folks in vegas, citing zero stats or advanced metrics, thought it would be 30 points closer than the previous game vs bama, and they were right.

I just don't understand how they made such a good hunch.
Posted by saturncube21
Member since Nov 2015
7289 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:27 pm to
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas
Posted by PenguinPubes
Frozen Tundra
Member since Jan 2018
10800 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:30 pm to
As I’ve gotten into betting, not a baller, chump change betting for fun..

I’ve realized how fricking strange it is Vegas is always right on the money. It’s amazing
Posted by Tiger1988
Houston
Member since May 2016
24328 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:30 pm to
Paid players to miss shots
Posted by Yeahright
On a big sphere out there.
Member since Sep 2018
1924 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:32 pm to
Lsu had nothing to lose.
They were due to play a decent game.
LSU played Bama about even in the 2nd half of the first game.
Bama was expecting a blowout and let their guard down maybe a little.
It's LSU vs. Bama so you know something strange is probably gonna happen.
Also, it was a Saturday game that wasn't at night so a few more fans would be there cheering for LSU.
That's all I got.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
11967 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 5:34 pm to
Figured LSU would have a little pride playing on their home floor.
Posted by TigersJump
In a land far far away
Member since Feb 2018
2176 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:05 pm to
quote:

How did vegas know?


You didn’t know that the Back to the Future time travel was based off of Vegas’ car?
Posted by gemlsu
Member since Sep 2003
2351 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:07 pm to
Hope not many of you wagered the house.
Posted by themunch
Earth. maybe
Member since Jan 2007
64654 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:10 pm to
Who lost money when LSU covered? Vegas?
This post was edited on 2/4/23 at 6:18 pm
Posted by clamdip
Rocky Mountain High
Member since Sep 2004
17878 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

Paid players to miss shots

Underrated post.
Posted by JustinT37
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2014
1810 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:21 pm to
Over/under closed around 149…Crazy how good they are.
Posted by deepdeltatiger
Myrtle Grove
Member since Aug 2007
922 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:23 pm to
I hope a lot of arrogant gumps bet the farm, their big house or wife's wedding ring on them winning by more than 11.5. I never bet against the Tigers, even when I think we don't have a chance. Geaux Tigers!
Posted by Art Vandelay
LOUISIANA
Member since Sep 2005
10698 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:38 pm to
quote:

I never bet against the Tigers, even when I think we don't have a chance. Geaux Tigers!
how much you hit them for today?
Posted by CBP3110
Member since Aug 2012
6501 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:39 pm to
Haha Bama hosed me today by not scoring shite for like 7 minutes in the second half. Should’ve been an easy cover for Bama.
Posted by UnoMe
Here
Member since Dec 2007
5562 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 6:54 pm to
Well if Vegas knew so much why was the line 10 or do 2 weeks ago and Alabama wins by 40?
Posted by Tvilletiger
PVB
Member since Oct 2015
4847 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:02 pm to
I agree with all this but it could have easily been a blowout also
Posted by Curtis Lowe
Member since Dec 2019
1262 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

I hope a lot of arrogant gumps bet the farm, their big house or wife's wedding ring on them winning by more than 11.5. I never bet against the Tigers, even when I think we don't have a chance. Geaux Tigers!




Is that a double wide or triple wide?
Posted by themunch
Earth. maybe
Member since Jan 2007
64654 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:52 pm to
Is that a double wide or triple wide? With a double car port and front and back porches. The metal fire pit with Bama on it is to die for.
Posted by Geaux Guy
Member since Dec 2018
5293 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 7:56 pm to
The betting influences the spread.
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
113940 posts
Posted on 2/4/23 at 8:23 pm to
The question should be, what do the bettors know? People who set lines have certain ways of doing it then they will make their own adjustment based on information.

And in basketball the home team automatically gets 3 ponts. The line was LSU +11 right? If it was in Bama it would have been LSU +14.

But the books can throw out any number. Let's say they set the line at LSU +32.. People would start jumping on LSU right out the gate because that's a huge number so the line would continue to drop until it reaches a balance point.

If it goes down to LSU +6 then people would jump on Bama then it would hit a point where even money is coming in. I talk to a sports bettor in Las Vegas from time to time, mostly during CFB. This year for example there was a Miami game I noticed the line was not what I thought it would be.. Maybe against Middle Tennessee? I am pretty sure they played each other this year and I think it was that game.

I was told sharks were dropping on middle Tennessee. It was reported until game time, but these people knew by Thursday, before a Saturday game that Middle Tennessee would have a starter back on their O line and that Miami had two players who were going to be out. I forget exactly what it was, I am just giving an example.. I just know I bet Middle Tennessee to cover, they ended up winning.

With that said, that information doesn't always mean anything. It just means that they are factors that could favor a team. But they are making predictions based on past results and current information so a lot of times that number will be exact.
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