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Graphic: FPI Probability of wins by week
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:31 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:31 pm
Fantastic graphic put together by a guy on reddit, who did one for every FBS team. See LINK
Edit: this is a matrix of the probabilities from FPI. This is not a random guy making predictions. He just put the table together.
How to read this:
-example 1: we have a 27.6% chance to have 6 wins after our week 12 game
-example 2: we have a 0.1% chance to be undefeated (8-0) after our week 8 game (i.e., we have a 0.1% chance to be undefeated going into the Bama game)
-example 3: we have an 8.4% chance to have only 1 win after our week 4 game.
This post was edited on 8/17/18 at 6:03 pm
27
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:32 pm to emanresu
So we have a 0.0% chance to run the board... so you’re saying there’s..not a chance?
And a 6% chance we start off 3-0, this is dumb
And a 6% chance we start off 3-0, this is dumb
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:33 pm to emanresu
quote:
we have a 0.1% chance to be undefeated (8-0) after our week 8 game (i.e., we have a 0.1% chance to be undefeated going into the Bama game)
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:34 pm to emanresu
So by his numbers LSU has a better chance of ending up with 4 wins than they do ending up with 9 wins. That's not good....
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:36 pm to emanresu
This is beyond dumb. The win probability week to week isn’t close.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:37 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:
So by his numbers LSU has a better chance of ending up with 4 wins than they do ending up with 9 wins. That's not good....
Even more striking, it’s apparently twice as likely we finish with 4 wins or less than 9 wins or more
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:41 pm to emanresu
It’s a nice effort, but it over-thinks itself and the game.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:43 pm to emanresu
This paints a clear picture how many really good teams are on the schedule. LSU might be a Top 25 team, but we play 5 teams in or just outside the top 15, plus a couple of others that have a chance to be be Top 20 teams.
The losses might start adding up. I just hope the team holds it together, and builds for next year. 2019 could be a very good year if the whole thing doesn’t burn to the ground this season.
The losses might start adding up. I just hope the team holds it together, and builds for next year. 2019 could be a very good year if the whole thing doesn’t burn to the ground this season.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:44 pm to emanresu
Best kept secret in college football. We comin.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:50 pm to Ghost of Colby
quote:
This paints a clear picture how many really good teams are on the schedule. LSU might be a Top 25 team, but we play 5 teams in or just outside the top 15, plus a couple of others that have a chance to be be Top 20 teams.
The losses might start adding up. I just hope the team holds it together, and builds for next year. 2019 could be a very good year if the whole thing doesn’t burn to the ground this season.
The Orgeron/Alleva PR Campaign to lower the bar and give each another year in the event of a football disaster this year.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:45 pm to emanresu
I liked the colors if that helps.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:58 pm to emanresu
Man a lot of you are in for a rude awakening this season if you think he's that far off.
That UF to Bama stretch is brutal.
That UF to Bama stretch is brutal.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:10 pm to emanresu
It's a cool idea and graphic, but the performance model seems pretty suspect. It implies, for example, that we have about the same chance to beat Auburn as Louisiana Tech has to beat us. Does anyone think that's true? It also implies that we should be a home underdog to Mississippi State. I guarantee that will not be the case (barring massive injuries). Finally, we are less than a field goal underdog against Miami, but this model says our chances of winning that game are only 1 in 3. Something is off with either the inputs or the formula here.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:22 pm to emanresu
If I'm interpreting this correctly we should go 5-7. Sweet.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:33 pm to profwilson
And he thinks we have a better chance of beating Bama than Auburn. Lol.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:35 pm to Imber
quote:
If I'm interpreting this correctly we should go 5-7. Sweet.
And O would still be here regardless. Same old. Tough schedule, injuries, youth, 1st year OC, one heartbeat, we coming, blah. Next Year U.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:39 pm to emanresu
This guy is a f’n moron! Right off the bat he is way off the mark. 30 something percent chance to beat the U? That’s complete BS!
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:55 pm to LSUERDOC
quote:
And he thinks we have a better chance of beating Bama than Auburn. Lol.
I mean we likely lose both so what's that worth that we're slightly more likely to win one over the other either way?
Auburn has legit revenge on their minds, are a better team and are at home where they play us tough anyway. Hardest game of the year IMO.
This post was edited on 8/16/18 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:59 pm to emanresu
Posted on 8/16/18 at 10:03 pm to LSUHobNailBoot
34% chance we beat atm? Lol
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