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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/16/18 at 10:50 pm to moneyg
Schedule has always been tough. This is nothing new.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 10:57 pm to emanresu
FPI is ESPN's pet statistical projection system and it has some built in biases.
You ever heard the expression GIGO, Garbage In, Garbage Out. That's my take on ESPN's FPI.
They need several weeks of results from the current season for it to actually produce somewhat realistic results. It's still just a fancy statistical guessing game right now.
ESPN uses a weird system where each team has a different home field advantage, so it gets really complicated to try and figure out what the actual point spreads that go with those numbers are.
But they do publish the raw numbers that indicate what the neutral field point spread for each matchup would be.
Using their numbers, if all these games were at a neutral field, then LSU would be favorites in only these games:
LaTech by 13, Ole Miss by 4, Arkansas by 6, Rice by 33, and SE La by 33.
They would be neutral field underdogs in all these games:
Miami by 6, Auburn by 10, Florida by 2, Georgia by 13, Miss. State by 5, Bama by 13, and Texas A&M by 2.5.
Sorry, I'm not buying it, but if you take pleasure in hearing bad things about LSU, then you should read these BS numbers and be very happy.
You ever heard the expression GIGO, Garbage In, Garbage Out. That's my take on ESPN's FPI.
They need several weeks of results from the current season for it to actually produce somewhat realistic results. It's still just a fancy statistical guessing game right now.
ESPN uses a weird system where each team has a different home field advantage, so it gets really complicated to try and figure out what the actual point spreads that go with those numbers are.
But they do publish the raw numbers that indicate what the neutral field point spread for each matchup would be.
Using their numbers, if all these games were at a neutral field, then LSU would be favorites in only these games:
LaTech by 13, Ole Miss by 4, Arkansas by 6, Rice by 33, and SE La by 33.
They would be neutral field underdogs in all these games:
Miami by 6, Auburn by 10, Florida by 2, Georgia by 13, Miss. State by 5, Bama by 13, and Texas A&M by 2.5.
Sorry, I'm not buying it, but if you take pleasure in hearing bad things about LSU, then you should read these BS numbers and be very happy.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 11:10 pm to LSUHobNailBoot
quote:
LSUHobNailBoot
Posted on 8/16/18 at 11:29 pm to emanresu
Well one thing is for sure.....if we go 5 and 7. 2 and 6 vs the sec like this says we will ...... a lot of people are getting fired. I honestly do not even think the floor is 5 and 7. But I have been wrong before.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 12:29 am to Imber
Maybe I’m looking at it wrong, but the highest percentage chance of wins on the last row is under 6 wins. With a higher chance we end up with 7 wins than 5 wins.
Or maybe I’m blind drunk
Or maybe I’m blind drunk
Posted on 8/17/18 at 6:04 am to emanresu
This chart goes to show there are 3 kinds of lies:
1. Lies;
2. Damn lies; and
3. Statistics
1. Lies;
2. Damn lies; and
3. Statistics
Posted on 8/17/18 at 6:13 am to Ghost of Colby
Alaways next year. Keep moving the bar. Lol
Posted on 8/17/18 at 6:51 am to Greace
quote:
Schedule has always been tough. This is nothing new.
Do we always have two home games in which we are a 4-1 dog? And another home game which we are a small dog...and, a road SEC game where we are about a 6-1 dog...and another neutral site game in which we are a 2-1 dog?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 7:31 am to moneyg
quote:
Do we always have two home games in which we are a 4-1 dog? And another home game which we are a small dog...and, a road SEC game where we are about a 6-1 dog...and another neutral site game in which we are a 2-1 dog?
No, normally we're better and so less of a dog. Last year a lot of the SEC was down. The only difference between them and us is they got good coaches and we went cheap. Last year we had a chance to take advantage of this down SEC year and ended up sh!tting the bed against teams we had no business losing to while beating the down SEC teams.
Us being so far of underdogs is LSU's fault, not the schedule.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:11 am to emanresu
So when we pack Miami's shite in game one, what does that do to this model?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:15 am to JayDeerTay84
quote:
So when we pack Miami's shite in game one, what does that do to this model?
It changes and gives a more realistic idea of LSU's chances, but even then, it takes at least a month of games for it even to be half good.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:57 am to emanresu
So, we have a 98.6 probability to beat SlU, but only a 65.3 probability to have one win after 2 games? If we have a 98.6% chance to beat SLU, our chance of having one win after 2 games should be at least 98.6. Something doesn't quite add up. This is total crap
Posted on 8/17/18 at 11:00 am to Goldrush25
quote:
Man a lot of you are in for a rude awakening this season if you think he's that far off.
That UF to Bama stretch is brutal.
hell, we havent won at AR in years!, dont count them out of that stretch either! very tough!
And TAMU is going to be better than alot of people think... I think they are going to be the surprise this year... very quiet with whats going on over there...
Posted on 8/17/18 at 11:02 am to emanresu
That's pretty cool info. It would be interesting to see how another program compares to LSU; maybe Auburn's?
Posted on 8/17/18 at 11:10 am to PenguinPubes
quote:
So we have a 0.0% chance to run the board... so you’re saying there’s..not a chance?
And a 6% chance we start off 3-0, this is dumb
I don't know man, he did say a guy on Reddit put it together...
Posted on 8/17/18 at 11:12 am to jrodLSUke
Click the link in the OP its got every CFB team
Posted on 8/17/18 at 11:59 am to emanresu
That looks about right. I think this team with Zereaux leading the charge is more 4-8 than 8-4. He can’t be gone quick enough for me.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 12:14 pm to sabanisarustedspoke
I get the sneaking suspicion that some are missing where it says that this is based on FBI. The guy on reddit didn't subjectively pull the numbers out of the nether.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 12:44 pm to Cashman
If you want to get the probability of at least 1 win, you have to add up 1 win and 2 wins, so it's like 99.2% or something.
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