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re: ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts 9-3 Regular Season for LSU
Posted on 7/8/19 at 2:34 pm to TheMuffinMan
Posted on 7/8/19 at 2:34 pm to TheMuffinMan
quote:
FPI projected us to play 12.3 games? I think you’re the one who botched the rounding.
It does show that. Because of chance of SECCG I guess?
But, OP was talking about regular season, so it would be 9.3 wins and 2.7 losses for regular season. So he rounded 9.3-2.7 down, which is reasonable.
2
Posted on 7/8/19 at 2:39 pm to HotTakeHerald
quote:
But, OP was talking about regular season, so it would be 9.3 wins and 2.7 losses for regular season. So he rounded 9.3-2.7 down, which is reasonable.
You have to love this time of year:
We take an arbitrarily assigned "number" and give it statistical significance. Then, we run a set of computations and determine a 9.3 and 2.7 value. Then we all argue over the statistics. All the while ignoring the irrelevance of the made up number int he first place!
I'm not kidding. I love this.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 2:44 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
quote:
We take an arbitrarily assigned "number" and give it statistical significance. Then, we run a set of computations and determine a 9.3 and 2.7 value. Then we all argue over the statistics. All the while ignoring the irrelevance of the made up number int he first place!
That's funny, but the original numbers are not arbitrarily assigned. For example, you'll note that the odds of LSU winning against teams expected to be good are lower than the others.
Do you think any of the single game odds are way off? Arkansas jumps out at me.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 2:56 pm to Salviati
quote:
ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts 9-3 Regular Season for LSU
Your post deserves many downvotes. This preseason poll has no credibility...because it does not predict an 11-1 finish.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:05 pm to Salviati
I loved Les but agreed he had to go. (I would have preferred at the end of 2015). Anyway.... does anyone thing we upgraded the coaching?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:11 pm to Penrod
At this point they are absolutely arbitrary
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:14 pm to HotTakeHerald
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/8/19 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:23 pm to TheMuffinMan
quote:
Projected W-L: Projected overall W-L, accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games (including potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.
It helps if you actually try to answer your own question before you ask it. I didn't write the code, but if anyone else need help reading the instructions on the OPs link just LMK.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:27 pm to OGtigerfan87
quote:
At this point they are absolutely arbitrary
If so, how do you explain Bama odds being low, GA SO odds being high, etc. They are NOT arbitrary. They are someone's opinion; they might be wrong; but they are NOT arbitrary.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:28 pm to HotTakeHerald
quote:
It does show that. Because of chance of SECCG I guess?
Nope. The description below the stats in the link provided literally tell you why it's not a whole number.
quote:
so it would be 9.3 wins and 2.7 losses for regular season
Nope. 9.5 wins 2.8 losses. It also says that in the OPs link. He rounded 9.5 down, which is called truncating and only makes sense in certain rounding situations unlike this one. Point is, this formula is predicting somewhere inbetween 9 and 10 wins for the season.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:30 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
This preseason poll has no credibility...because it does not predict an 11-1 finish.
Did you see the threads about the predictions of 11 wins? Phil Steeles?
What was your opinion of them?
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:32 pm to Powerman
quote:
Because none of those things are certain
Like all preseason predictions, its nothing but table talk
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:32 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Phil Steele does tons of research. And his mag has a ton of PAST info.... his love for Notre Dame and Ohio State does bother me...... however he does fairness to LSU.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:36 pm to dukke v
He's a huge OU homer, doesn't care to much for LSU historically.
But it's just a prediction. All of them are at this point. I would take end of season projections serious until mid October
But it's just a prediction. All of them are at this point. I would take end of season projections serious until mid October
Posted on 7/8/19 at 3:58 pm to Damone
quote:
Even then, it's next man up. That's why you recruit quality depth.
I’m speaking mostly about if Burrow gets injured. There are very few (if any) teams in college football who could have their starting QB go out early in the season and still win 10 games. I’m not even sure Bama could win 10 regular season games is Tua went out for the season in the first couple of games. They would likely lose to us, A&M, Auburn, and possibly one other (who is their other east opponent this year besides Tennessee).
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:03 pm to Diesel88
quote:
Nope. The description below the stats in the link provided literally tell you why it's not a whole number.
"(including potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation."
So Yes. They tell you and it is EXACTLY what I conjectured.
quote:
Nope. 9.5 wins 2.8 losses. It also says that in the OPs link. He rounded 9.5 down, which is called truncating and only makes sense in certain rounding situations unlike this one. Point is, this formula is predicting somewhere inbetween 9 and 10 wins for the season.
Again, that includes a bowl game. The description below the stats in the link provided literally tell you that it includes bowl games. The title of the OP literally tells you that he is giving a regular season number.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:10 pm to TheMuffinMan
quote:
Looking at our FPI projection and translating it to an 11-1 projected record is losing the fractional differences that make this tool more information-rich than a blogger slapping a binary prediction (W/L) next to each game on our schedule.
Imputing a season win total based on a series of predictions of discrete events doesn't make a lot of sense to begin with. Whether your solution is 9.5 wins or 11 wins, you're doing it wrong.
This post was edited on 7/8/19 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:16 pm to Salviati
The over under on wins is 10.2. Vegas has LSU. 11 and 1.
Posted on 7/8/19 at 4:16 pm to TheCaterpillar
Why do react to this nonsense. Last year was 6 and 6.
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