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ESPN Matchup Predictor: LSU's Auburn vs Bama game

Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:12 am
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166333 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:12 am
Says we have 21.9% chance of beating Auburn on road.

LINK


Says we have 22.5% chance of beating Bama at home.

LINK


Personally i think we're kicking the shite out of both of these teams but surprised we're marginally favored more beating bama at home than auburn on road.


For discussion's sake, giving LSU a 35.7% chance of beating UGA at home.
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 10:16 am
Posted by Ping Pong
LSU and UVA alum
Member since Aug 2014
5354 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:14 am to
Last week it said we had a 37% chance of beating Miami. ESPN needs to reevaluate their algorithm.
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40567 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:14 am to
Those formulas give home field a lot of weight
Posted by TheHat7
Member since Oct 2015
7189 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:14 am to
Bama looks unbeatable with Tua. I know UL is crap on D but Petrino teams are always good offensively. Bama looked machine like n every phase. AU we have a chance if Oline can hold up.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118862 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Bama looks unbeatable with Tua.


Tua is an unbelievable athlete.
Posted by BlindTiger7
Houston
Member since Sep 2016
2683 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Tua is an unbelievable athlete.


Agreed. Although one of his TD passes should have been picked off in the end zone. I don't even think he was looking when he threw it
Posted by TheHat7
Member since Oct 2015
7189 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:18 am to
Really? I was embarrassed hearing Finebaum playing the call from his show. It was literally LSU fans askin about us and Bama bth getting in final 4! Also some called about going unbeaten etc. he was so amused he literally played it on CFB live.
This post was edited on 9/5/18 at 10:19 am
Posted by TheDrunkenTigah
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
17321 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Bama looks unbeatable with Tua.


He makes some questionable decisions with the ball. You can see why Saban isn't ready to run Hurts out of the building just yet. He is an elite talent but I am curious to see how he plays against a talented defense that will make him decide quickly.
Posted by TheHat7
Member since Oct 2015
7189 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:21 am to
I know the throw u are mentioning but how is his vision that good to see that n the corner of the end zone? And to get the throw there. Man he doesn’t miss often at all. But he is young and will tend to do too much. That’s very coachable imo.
Posted by lsufan1971
Zachary
Member since Nov 2003
18288 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:23 am to
We have a rough October schedule while Bama has cupcakes. It could be a blessing that we will be battle tested but we could also be beat up as well. Should know after Aubbie if we are for real.
Posted by EvrybodysAllAmerican
Member since Apr 2013
11166 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:25 am to
ive been saying all month, the Auburn game looks like our toughest on the schedule. Young team going on the road for the first time. (think Miss State last year)

The other heavy weights are at home.
Posted by lsufan1971
Zachary
Member since Nov 2003
18288 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:27 am to
quote:

He is an elite talent but I am curious to see how he plays against a talented defense that will make him decide quickly.


One of his best qualities is keeping his eyes downfield at all times. That’s hard to coach. If he stays healthy he is going to be a great one. As a Tiger fan I hate him but as a college football fan the kid is fun to watch.
Posted by TheDrunkenTigah
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
17321 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:28 am to
quote:

I know the throw u are mentioning but how is his vision that good to see that n the corner of the end zone?


He didn't. He saw a flash of jersey and heaved it and was lucky the corner plays for UL. He forced a few balls in addition to that one. He'll make some jaw-dropping throws this year because his arm is that good but I also think his arm is going to get him in trouble from time to time.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
84128 posts
Posted on 9/5/18 at 10:29 am to
quote:

Agreed. Although one of his TD passes should have been picked off in the end zone. I don't even think he was looking when he threw it


Yea, he definitely got away with that one. But if he's going to have 2012 Manziel type luck, no one is beating them
Posted by Bucks2TigerFan
Member since Jun 2018
825 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:07 am to
This early in the season, ESPN's FPI is just fancy statistical guesswork. There have not been enough actual games to get meaningful data to determine each team's true strength. It takes at least until October before they have enough data to even be close.

I wouldn't worry about what it says now.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10186 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:16 am to
Posted by OTIS2
NoLA
Member since Jul 2008
50143 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:22 am to
quote:

Last week it said we had a 37% chance of beating Miami. ESPN needs to reevaluate their algorithm.


The algorithm is clearly biased.
Posted by sweetwaterbilly
Member since Mar 2017
19351 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:31 am to
quote:

I don't even think he was looking when he threw it


This is what I noticed too on a few of his throws. He's definitely good and much better than Hurts but I don't think he makes them unbeatable. There were several times when he just turned and chucked it downfield without even looking. Didn't hurt them against Louisville but will come back to bite them against a good defense.

Louisville was garbage - Alabama will get tested at some point. Tua helps - but he ain't the end all be all.
Posted by JOJO Hammer
Member since Nov 2010
11921 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:32 am to
quote:

Bama looks unbeatable with Tua.


More over reaction after one game.
Posted by GEAUX5
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2014
5145 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:42 am to
quote:

If he is going to have 2012 Manziel type luck, no one is going to beat them


LSU did
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