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Started By
Message
re: Conference Tournament Week - (Bid Stealer Tracker)
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:13 am to Traceg03
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:13 am to Traceg03
quote:
16. San Diego
It’ll be interesting to see what they do with that last spot. I do agree that E Carolina has dropped out of a host spot. D1 had Duke as the 2-seed at ECU in their last projection. With Duke making the ACC tournament final, I think they will snag that last spot with ECU as the 2-seed there instead.
I think UNC gets the #3 ahead of A&M based on conference record and Oklahoma gets a Top 8 seed over Oklahoma St despite today’s result, again based on conference record.
For the 2-seeds, here are the pairings I think are likely:
UCSB-Arizona
Duke-ECU
Oregon St-San Diego
Oklahoma St-DBU (maybe Oklahoma)
Clemson-SC
Arkansas-La Tech
The top 2-seeds along with ECU, San Diego, and Arizona will be Wake Forest, Miss St, LSU, and Vandy. They probably get paired with Indiana St, NC St, Georgia, and Virginia.
I think UC-Irvine, Nebraska, and USM are likely 2-seeds, but I’m not sure where they will land.
I’m not sure who the other 3 2-seeds will be (and I’m not 100% on La Tech either), but the top candidates are Alabama, WVU, ULL, Illinois, the CAA tournament champs, and Texas.
2
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:22 am to MikeTheTiger71
I agree with what all you said, I picked ok. State over Oklahoma for the national seed because of head to head (won 2 out of 3 in regular season as well, and the conference championship, but Oklahoma does have the overall better body of work. I just thought maybe for the 16 seed they would throw in another west coast team but Duke is very possible.
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 12:23 am
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:31 am to MikeTheTiger71
I could definitely see Duke getting that final host spot if they beat FSU tomorrow.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 10:34 am to TigerCub
Final Day:
Georgia Southern and Penn State are the only two Bid steal risk.
I am not sure about CAA; They have Charleston as first 4 out so if they won I think CAA would probably get Charleston, UNCW.
I still believe Northeastern has a chance even tho D1 doesn't list them at all.
RPI is #34 with a 38-17 record.
Georgia Southern and Penn State are the only two Bid steal risk.
I am not sure about CAA; They have Charleston as first 4 out so if they won I think CAA would probably get Charleston, UNCW.
I still believe Northeastern has a chance even tho D1 doesn't list them at all.
RPI is #34 with a 38-17 record.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 11:06 am to Traceg03
quote:
I am not sure about CAA; They have Charleston as first 4 out so if they won I think CAA would probably get Charleston, UNCW. I still believe Northeastern has a chance even tho D1 doesn't list them at all. RPI is #34 with a 38-17 record.
I just don’t understand D1’s love for KSU and Georgia Tech. I agree that the committee won’t adhere strictly to RPI, but there are several teams they have out with better RPIs and better conference records. KSU and Ga Tech only finished at .500 in conference then went 0-2. I guess Ga Tech is #34 in KPI, which we’ll have to wait and see how much weight the committee gives it. KSU is #44. If that’s really what they are looking at, then I don’t understand Coastal Carolina being out of their field at #19 in KPI and better than both in RPI. Northeastern is down a bit in KPI at #55, so it’ll be interesting to see how they balance that with #34 in the RPI.
KSU is only 7-15 vs Q1 and 13-20 vs Q1/2. Here are how the other contenders stack up:
Ga Tech: 10-14, 14-17
Northeastern: 4-4, 12-9
Coastal: 4-9, 11-20
JMU: 7-8, 11-17
Charleston: 3-3, 9-9
UNCW: 5-5, 11-10
Indiana: 6-10, 12-14
Cal: 5-2, 13-11
There are certainly contradictory indicators for all of those teams, but KSU really looks out to me no matter how you slice it.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 11:09 am to MikeTheTiger71
D1 says their projections are what they think the committee will do, not necessarily what they would do. I don't think anyone really knows how much they will consider KPI since it's the first year they have it. Though, I can't believe they would add it to their resume just to completely ignore it.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 11:24 am to TigerCub
quote:
D1 says their projections are what they think the committee will do, not necessarily what they would do. I don't think anyone really knows how much they will consider KPI since it's the first year they have it. Though, I can't believe they would add it to their resume just to completely ignore it.
I didn’t mean it to be taken that I thought they personally were in love with Ga Tech and KSU. I meant that I don’t understand why they believe those teams will be looked upon favorably by the committee, especially KSU. If they do think KPI will be important, I don’t understand Coastal being out of their field.
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 11:33 am
Posted on 5/26/24 at 1:10 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Nebraska beat Penn State so no bid stolen out of the Big 10.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 3:24 pm to robg1124
I see it is noted that AAC stole a bid,
What team stole it?
What team stole it?
Posted on 5/26/24 at 3:25 pm to UncleLester
Tulane won the AAC on a walk-off homerun.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 5:39 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Posted on 5/26/24 at 6:18 pm to BZ504
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 6:27 pm
Posted on 5/26/24 at 6:54 pm to Sandperson
Grambling won the SWAC so that makes 6 Louisiana teams that will be in regionals
LSU
ULL
Nicholls
LA Tech
Tulane
Grambling
LSU
ULL
Nicholls
LA Tech
Tulane
Grambling
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 5/26/24 at 7:29 pm to TigerCub
You know the AAC is weak when toolame wins the conference tournament.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 9:40 pm to TigerKurt
Mike, +1 for Indiana pick, now D1 is finally talking about them being in. We were way ahead
Posted on 5/26/24 at 11:47 pm to Traceg03
quote:
Mike, +1 for Indiana pick, now D1 is finally talking about them being in. We were way ahead
I’m trying to gain some insight from the host site selections, but they are throwing me for a loop. Here’s my crack at the 1-2 matchups:
#1 Tennessee-WVU
#2 Kentucky-Indiana St
#3 UNC-Alabama
#4 A&M-ULL
#5 Arkansas-La Tech
#6 Clemson-SC
#7 Oklahoma-Nebraska
#8 FSU-USM
#9 Oklahoma St-DBU
#10 Virginia-Vandy
#11 Georgia-Wake Forest
#12 NC St-LSU
#13 Arizona-UC Irvine
#14 Oregon St-San Diego
#15 UCSB-Miss St
#16 ECU-Duke
Posted on 5/26/24 at 11:54 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Last 4 In:
Coastal Carolina
Charleston
Indiana
Cal
First 4 Out:
Georgia Tech
Florida
James Madison
Kansas St
Coastal Carolina
Charleston
Indiana
Cal
First 4 Out:
Georgia Tech
Florida
James Madison
Kansas St
Posted on 5/27/24 at 1:20 am to MikeTheTiger71
I still think Florida makes it in though I don’t think they should.
Posted on 5/27/24 at 8:35 am to TigerCub
quote:
I still think Florida makes it in though I don’t think they should.
I’m trying to read the tea leaves based on the host selections that the committee isn’t placing as much emphasis on the RPI as they normally do. This one really could go either way. Both D1Baseball and Baseball America have them in, so we shall see. They both have Cal out as well, while I have them last in and Florida first out. If they deviate from RPI, that may be where they do it.
One has Georgia Tech in and one has Kansas St. I have both out. One has Charleston in and one has Northeastern. I have both in. It was interesting to see D1 make a last minute change to include Charleston, Coastal Carolina, and Indiana. They must have been following our discussion here.
Posted on 5/27/24 at 1:16 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
One has Georgia Tech in and one has Kansas St. I have both out. One has Charleston in and one has Northeastern. I have both in. It was interesting to see D1 make a last minute change to include Charleston, Coastal Carolina, and Indiana. They must have been following our discussion here.
Well, I got that very wrong. I’m not sure how it’s consistent for the committee to have UNCW as a 2-seed, then leave CAA regular season champ Charleston out completely. 3 bids for the CAA may have been pushing it, but I don’t see how they didn’t get at least 2. I still just don’t get the attraction to Kansas St. They went 7-13 against Big 12 teams that made the tournament with only one series win. Non-conference they split with Cal and Georgetown in a weekend classic and went 0-4 against tournament teams midweek. How is that a tournament resume?
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