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Burrow & SEC QBs drop rate vs NFL's - CFB Film Room Debunked

Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:57 am
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:57 am
NFL's drop chart for 2016 -
Worst drop-rate in the NFL - 5.5%
Worst drop-rate in SEC - 25.3% (according to CFB) LOL



NFL's Drop Rate Numbers:
1st column - Team
2nd column - Number of Targets
3rd column - Drops
4th column -Drops Percentage
1 New York Jets 546 30 5.5
2 San Francisco 49ers 487 24 4.9
3 Oakland Raiders 589 29 4.9
4 Kansas City Chiefs 536 26 4.9
5 Detroit Lions 580 28 4.8
6 Chicago Bears 550 24 4.4
7 Indianapolis Colts 573 25 4.4
8 Los Angeles Rams 530 22 4.2
9 Houston Texans 577 23 4.0
10 Philadelphia Eagles 604 24 4.0
11 Carolina Panthers 553 21 3.8
12 Cleveland Browns 558 21 3.8
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 590 22 3.7
14 New York Giants 597 22 3.7
15 Baltimore Ravens 666 24 3.6
16 Jacksonville Jaguars 623 22 3.5
17 San Diego Chargers 564 18 3.2
18 Buffalo Bills 459 14 3.1
19 New Orleans Saints 664 20 3.0
20 Arizona Cardinals 636 18 2.8
21 Miami Dolphins 467 13 2.8
22 Seattle Seahawks 548 15 2.7
23 Minnesota Vikings 585 16 2.7
24 Denver Broncos 556 14 2.5
25 Green Bay Packers 614 15 2.4
26 Cincinnati Bengals 542 12 2.2
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 571 12 2.1
28 Atlanta Falcons 530 11 2.1
29 New England Patriots 546 11 2.0
30 Washington Redskins 593 11 1.9
31 Tennessee Titans 490 9 1.8
32 Dallas Cowboys 479 8 1.7
LINK

Then we have CFB's SEC numbers



Some points on CFB:
1) There are no LSU, SEC, or NCAA official stats on drops.
2) CFB has no employees who analyze film for stats. All volunteers.
3) Any random dude can volunteer on CFB to become an instant "advanced" analyst
4) CFB freely admits that they don't follow standard football statistical methods. Direct quote from CFB's FAQ section:
quote:

Q. Why are your stats wrong?
A. Yes, we know our stats don’t match up with the numbers you’re seeing elsewhere. There are a number of reasons for this.
Most frequently, especially with common statistics such as rushing and passing yards, it’s because we believe the NCAA’s policy for recording official statistics is archaic, at best, and often just flat out illogical."

5) College statistician’s association has set criteria for defining a "dropped pass" . CFB does not follow it.
6) 50 or more CFB "advanced analysts" may have contributed to the SEC drop chart. Each with their own opinion on drops.
7. There is verification of CFB's data. i.e., game clock time stamp for each drop. It should be a piece of cake to provide the data for verification if the "advanced analysts" are doing even a GA's quality level of work.
8. CFB went around the Ohio State boards.. CFB’s numbers claimed Parris Campbell had about the worst Drop Rate in the Big Ten (Pure BS) – Mel Kiper and Walter Football both have Campbell as the #2 WR Draft pick for 2019. OSU does keep drop stats - Campbell had 1 drop in '17.

To accept CFB's chart, you'd have to believe things like Jordan Ta Amu of Ole Miss had 7.6 drops per game - and yet maintained a 63.6% completion rate.

C'mon man... Amateur Hour

This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:16 am
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
71534 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 7:58 am to
It didnt really make much sense to me when I saw it. Using their stats for Joe they basically were saying he about 15 drops the first 10 games, that's only 1.5 a game and that's simply not true.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 7:59 am
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
41780 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:07 am to
It's kind of like all those pancakes T Bob had at LSU in reverse.

With the drops fans saw them, but they were not recorded; while the pancakes were recorded but never happened.

These home made stats are very iffy.
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
48831 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:08 am to
No way that is accurate. The drop rate by LSU receivers is much higher than that
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:08 am to
And the highest drop rate in the NFL is 5.5%. While the lowest drop rate in the SEC is 8.7%.

Just some silly shite!
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
60705 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:13 am to
Oh my goodness.

You are coming off as truly unlikeabke.

Burriw was terribly inaccurate for a large part of the season. You don’t throw for less than 50 percent if you are accurate and timely

He got better. Everyone likes him. He is a great leader

How about you quit throwing his teammates under the bus and accept the fact that he had a whole lot of work to do to get better.

This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:43 am
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
50963 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:13 am to
quote:

And the highest drop rate in the NFL is 5.5%. While the lowest drop rate in the SEC is 8.7%.

Just some silly shite!


The worst group of receivers in the NFL are much more polished than the best group of receivers in college.

This is the least surprising statistic that they listed.
Posted by Lahurricane08
Member since Sep 2018
866 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:18 am to
Burrow also threw away probably 4-7 passes per game due to no open recievers or a busted oline...
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:18 am to
quote:

The worst group of receivers in the NFL are much more polished than the best group of receivers in college.

This is the least surprising statistic that they listed.

Couldn't wait to see who defended CFB's bullcrap.

So if the SEC's WR's cant catch, then the SECs DB's can't defend - should cancel each other out. Amirite?
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:29 am
Posted by mtntiger
Asheville, NC
Member since Oct 2003
29340 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:20 am to
As the OP stated, it depends on who is doing the analysis and what that person decides is a drop.

For some folks, a drop is anything that the receiver gets his hands on that does not result in a catch. It does not matter what the circumstance is.

I'm more forgiving on drops. If the ball goes through the receiver's hands (like the Eagles receiver the other day), then that's a drop.

If the receiver has his hands on it but had to make a leap, dive, or body contortion just to get a hand on it, then that's not necessarily a drop.

If the ball is being contested by a DB, then that's not a drop. You want your WR to win that battle, but calling it a drop is a stretch, IMO.

You are correct, though. I think we had more than 19 drops on the season (12% X 160 inc = 19.04). That works out to LESS than 1.5 per game. I'd say we were closer to 2+/game on average.
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:22 am to
College and NFL statisticians have an association They have tightly defined a "drop". CFB does not follow these guidelines. All professional football statisticians do.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:26 am
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
50963 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:22 am to
quote:

Couldn't wait to see who defended CFB' bullcrap.

So if the SEC's WR's cant catch, then the SECs DB's can't defend - should cancel each other out. Amirite?


No one is defending anything you dumbass. Any NFL wide receiving corps is going to be much, much better than the best college team's corps.

This is just common sense.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
60705 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:22 am to
You disagree with data.

If we could just get jugs machines that would fix it.


Why did Joes completion rate go up as the year went on? I can give you one hint, the receivers were the same. So what changed
Posted by La Place Mike
West Florida Republic
Member since Jan 2004
30903 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:27 am to
quote:

So what changed
The receivers dropped fewer balls.
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:28 am to
quote:

No one is defending anything you dumbass. Any NFL wide receiving corps is going to be much, much better than the best college team's corps.

This is just common sense.

Right - so the college DBs (by your logic) are equally inept. Much easier in college to complete passes. Right dumbass?
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
50963 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:29 am to
quote:

Right - so the college DBs (by your logic) are equally inept. Much easier in college to complete passes. Right dumbass?


Yes. NFL defensive backs are better than college defensive backs. In fact, the worst NFL (insert any position group here) is better than the best college (insert any position group here).

You're a fricking moron.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:31 am
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78251 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:30 am to
This is % ofnincompletions from drops

Vs Drops per target

So the CFB Film Room # is Drops/Incompletions

The NFL % is Drops/Targets which includes catches and poor throws.

So it makes sense that one is going to be a lot higher than the other
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
41393 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:31 am to
thats not what he said at all. He’s saying most college teams have 3 or less pro wr’s and less than that whom will actually play.

The nfl has 5 pro wr’s and all play. The players in the nfl are inherently more talented and probably better at their craft than any college group. Saying they have fewer drops than a college team is not surprising at all.

Saying Tennessee had over 1/4 of their incompletions due to drops is absurd
Posted by Buckeye Jeaux
Member since May 2018
17756 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:31 am to
Right. So CFB is claiming LSUs WRs had about 1 1/2 drops per game. More like 3+ IMO.
This post was edited on 1/15/19 at 8:39 am
Posted by TrevRollings29
Orlando
Member since Dec 2018
969 posts
Posted on 1/15/19 at 8:38 am to
quote:

Couldn't wait to see who defended CFB's bullcrap.

So if the SEC's WR's cant catch, then the SECs DB's can't defend - should cancel each other out. Amirite?


Broken up passes or heavily contested catches do not count towards drop rate. To some extent, bad passes do not count as drops either.

Why are you comparing NFL WR's to LSUs?

I didn't see one thread on here wondering if Joe Burrow was coming back or declaring.

For all the WR drop and bad OL - go find average time possessing the ball before getting rid of it. NFL Time to Throw is 2.55 (Derek Carr) maxing out at just 3.22 seconds (Josh Allen).

I rarely saw LSU get rid of the ball that fast this year.
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