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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:03 pm to Gings5
quote:
Teams that defer win 55% of the time and teams that receive win 52% of the time.
The math seems….suspect
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:07 pm to Adam Banks
Why the need to bitch about wanting to get rid of a call in show with your head football coach is beyond me.i thought y’all were big football fans?
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:12 pm to Gings5
quote:
Teams that defer win 55% of the time and teams that receive win 52% of the time.
That math ain't mathing
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:13 pm to Adam Banks
54.9% = of all games where the toss winner deferred, they won 54.9% of those games.
51.9% = of all games where the toss winner received, they won 51.9% of those games.
51.9% = of all games where the toss winner received, they won 51.9% of those games.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:19 pm to Gings5
quote:
54.9% = of all games where the toss winner deferred, they won 54.9% of those games. 51.9% = of all games where the toss winner received, they won 51.9% of those games.
Alternatively this could read that
The team who won the coin toss and was able to make a decision that benefited their team’s strengths in order to ever so slightly improve their odds of winning.
Clearly Brian Kelly is not the only coach that chooses to receive.
By your own data teams that choose to receive have a higher than 50% chance of winning and what is likely a statistically insignificant difference from deferring
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:22 pm to LSBoosie
I think it was around my 3rd year of college, circa 1996, when spurrier became the first ever head coach to make $1M per year: now the team is at $18 M.
I shutter to think of where these numbers will be in 2050
I shutter to think of where these numbers will be in 2050
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:24 pm to Adam Banks
You could also make the claim that just winning the toss gives you a higher chance to win 
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:26 pm to Gings5
quote:
You could also make the claim that just winning the toss gives you a higher chance to win
Honestly probably the best interpretation.
Ever so slightly you get to play the game more on your terms.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 9:45 pm to LSBoosie
We’re gonna have one of the best teams money can buy.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:05 pm to Gings5
quote:
Teams that defer win 55% of the time and teams that receive win 52% of the time
So….teams that defer win more than half their games AND teams that receive win more than half their games?
That doesn’t quite add up
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:07 pm to Gings5
quote:
54.9% = of all games where the toss winner deferred, they won 54.9% of those games. 51.9% = of all games where the toss winner received, they won 51.9% of those games
So it seems that winning the coin toss is a big deal, not so much what you do with it.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:21 pm to Honkus
quote:
Someone please ask him about winning the toss and taking the bal
I don’t understand his logic of thinking when he does this, even if it goes absolutely perfect it’s still wayyy to early to have any effect on the outcome of the game compared to scoring right before halftime and right after
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:47 am to TexasTiger89
quote:
Brian Kelly Show Anybody listening?
I’d rather swallow glass than listen to Brian Kelly say anything.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:57 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
People make too much of this IMO. Most of the time I would defer and kickoff but there are times to take the ball.
It seems stupid to take the ball first in big time games. Often times offenses are slow to get going in these games. I’m sure stats could prove me wrong, but it seems like BK’s LSU teams do better on offense later in games.
It frustrates me to see him choose to take the ball first in these games.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 3:14 am to Honkus
Couple offsides then 3 and 20.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 4:32 am to 225Tyga
quote:
Damn! Where did they get $18 mill from in such a short time span
Well, you didn't help did you?
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:40 am to TexasTiger89
Ask him why we look like arse every first game of the season.
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:45 am to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
So it seems that winning the coin toss is a big deal, not so much what you do with it.
Not at all
1. You cant control "winning the toss".. so the point is moot, as we're talking about things BK can our control
2. The data suggests winning the toss and deferring give you a 9.8% better chance of winning.
Just don't be like the Bears in 2024 who tried to kick after the Lions deferred
This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 6:18 am
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:11 am to Adam Banks
Okay so basically deferring vs electing to receive only yields a 3% greater chance in winning the game? I have always been a defensive guy so I always liked starting on defense to force a punt and give the ball to the offense but if a Coach wants to score first I haven't had any issue with it. Also, if the other team wins the toss were getting the ball first anyway so this is a whole bunch of nothing.
Now again I would prefer for him to defer to the second half but its being made a much bigger deal than what it actually is.
Now again I would prefer for him to defer to the second half but its being made a much bigger deal than what it actually is.
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