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Besides the scoreboard and turnovers, 3rd/4th down conversion will be a key stat Saturday.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:50 pm
LSU currently has a 3rd down conversion rate of 51.67% or 31 out of 60 attempts. The 4th down conversion rate is 40% or 2 out of 5 attempts. LSU's drive sustaining rate is 50.77% or 33 out of 65 attempts.
Ole Miss is slightly lower than LSU in 3rd down conversion rate at 43.08% or 28 out of 65 but Ole Miss surpasses LSU on 4th down conversions 58.33% or 7 out of 12 attempts. Ole Miss' drive sustaining rate is 45.45% or 35 out of 77 attempts.
As you can see Lane likes to go for it a lot more on 4th down than Kelly. If Ole Miss is around mid field and the down and distance is 3rd and 6-8 yards expect Lane to run it against a defense expecting pass to set up 4th and short.
In CBK's press conference he stressed complementary football. Sustaining drives is the key to complementary football IMO. Converting on 3rd down on offense and getting off the field while on defense.
On third and medium to long, Lane is going to stunt and blitz Nuss. I hope Nuss is ready for it and has his outlet receivers ready because Lane will send them.
Ole Miss is slightly lower than LSU in 3rd down conversion rate at 43.08% or 28 out of 65 but Ole Miss surpasses LSU on 4th down conversions 58.33% or 7 out of 12 attempts. Ole Miss' drive sustaining rate is 45.45% or 35 out of 77 attempts.
As you can see Lane likes to go for it a lot more on 4th down than Kelly. If Ole Miss is around mid field and the down and distance is 3rd and 6-8 yards expect Lane to run it against a defense expecting pass to set up 4th and short.
In CBK's press conference he stressed complementary football. Sustaining drives is the key to complementary football IMO. Converting on 3rd down on offense and getting off the field while on defense.
On third and medium to long, Lane is going to stunt and blitz Nuss. I hope Nuss is ready for it and has his outlet receivers ready because Lane will send them.
7
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:52 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Besides the scoreboard and turnovers, 3rd/4th down conversion will be a key stat Saturday.
I mean you can probably say this about basically every football game.
This post was edited on 10/8/24 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:53 pm to GumboPot
UM is the toughest team for our defense because they don't play like tradiitonal teams. Most will punt on 4th and 4 and under everytime and they won't. It haunts them a game or two per season doing that, but the odds favor the decision the bulk of it. Can the LSU defense take advantage of chances and force a couple of TOD? I agree with this post.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:55 pm to GumboPot
quote:
On third and medium to long, Lane is going to stunt and blitz Nuss.
Thank God we have a great O-line & if he’s bringing more than 5, someone will be open
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:55 pm to GumboPot
So will LSU's defense against a high-powered quick snap offense.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:56 pm to LSBoosie
quote:quote:
Besides the scoreboard and turnovers, 3rd/4th down conversion will be a key stat Saturday.
I mean you can probably say this about basically every football game.
I thought about not posting this after I wrote it because it is kind of redundant. But I provided conversion rate info that some people might appreciate so I posted anyway.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 2:59 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Thank God we have a great O-line & if he’s bringing more than 5, someone will be open
Your are right about the OL and I'll add RB blocking assignments. Just need Nuss to recognize the open man and if no one is open throw it away and live for another down.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:05 pm to GumboPot
LSU can't let Ole Miss run for easy 1st downs, especially QB scrambles.
Key to Victory: Stop Dart from rushing for easy 1st downs
Key to Victory: Stop Dart from rushing for easy 1st downs
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:07 pm to GumboPot
LSU has been pretty good this year on defense in 3rd down conversion percentage (32%...22nd best in the nation). Ole Miss has been even better at 25%...3rd in the nation. LSU has been really good in converting 3rd downs on offense (5th in the nation). LSU offense vs Ole Miss's defense on third down will be a battle of great on great (at least statistically)
To me, LSU's defense isn't good enough to line up and hold Ole Miss under 24 by just playing straight up. But LSU does do two things really well. Sack the QB (5th best in sack %) and force fumbles (avg 2 FF per game...5th best). Ole Miss is going to hit their share of big plays. The hope is that LSU can mitigate them by creating some turnovers via pressure
To me, LSU's defense isn't good enough to line up and hold Ole Miss under 24 by just playing straight up. But LSU does do two things really well. Sack the QB (5th best in sack %) and force fumbles (avg 2 FF per game...5th best). Ole Miss is going to hit their share of big plays. The hope is that LSU can mitigate them by creating some turnovers via pressure
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:14 pm to GumboPot
quote:
LSU currently has a 3rd down conversion rate of 51.67% or 31 out of 60 attempts.
That is 11th best in the FBS, tied with Ohio State and 3rd in the SEC behind Arkansas (#8, 52.8%) and Texas (#9, 52.5%)
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:27 pm to Alt26
quote:
Ole Miss is going to hit their share of big plays.
Tre Harris is Ole Miss' most productive offensive player. In 6 games he already has 885 yards with 52 receptions. He averages 17 yards a play. He is Ole Miss' big play guy.
Apparently Tre Harris is banged up and his play might be limited. I think Lane has him declared as doubtful (or will be declared doubtful) but I don't trust Lane Kiffin. The dude plays games with his injury reports.
With Zy Alexander coming back from injury for LSU and Sage back at safety with Spears getting a lot of playing time, LSU's changes of limiting Ole Miss' big plays might be the most opportune time this season.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:27 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
LSU can't let Ole Miss run for easy 1st downs, especially QB scrambles.
Key to Victory: Stop Dart from rushing for easy 1st downs
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:53 pm to Alt26
quote:
Sack the QB (5th best in sack %) and force fumbles (avg 2 FF per game...5th best).
LSU has to do all the things really well, but most importantly is getting off the field on 3rd down. Last year, Dart ran for three first downs on drives LSU could have had stops, and all three drives ended with TDs.
Don't give them the easy 1st downs, make them earn it with low percentage plays.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 3:56 pm to Alt26
quote:
avg 2 FF per game
This is an extremely shocking stat I didn’t realize this. We need to actually start recovering fumbles when we force them lol.
Posted on 10/9/24 at 8:01 am to lsudave1
quote:
This is an extremely shocking stat I didn’t realize this.
And frustrating. But if the LSU D keeps knocking the ball out its going to eventually bounce their way.
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