Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 2 game for LSU against Bama as they are outside the Top 30 (vs. 31-75 home game is Quadrant 2). These results are as of 1/28/20.

#25 (15-4, 6-0 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 4-2
Quad 2 = 4-2
Quad 3 = 3-0
Quad 4 = 4-0

#41 (12-7, 4-2 SEC) A1abama
Quad 1 = 1-4
Quad 2 = 2-2
Quad 3 = 6-0
Quad 4 = 3-1

LSU as of recent
After starting out 6-0 in SEC play, LSU headed to Texas to play a talented, but struggling Longhorn team and boy, once again did LSU not disappoint in making a game interesting as we pulled out yet another squeaker 69-67 (although final score doesn’t indicate in the closing minute we DID actually put this one away as Texas hit a 3 at the buzzer to make it look closer than it was at the very end). Unfortunately, we saw another huge blown lead as we got out to a 16 point lead after a few minutes into the 2nd half and even made it 16 once against around the 15 minute mark. From that point on, it took Texas just 10 minutes to completely evaporate that lead and get one of their own around the 5 minute mark as LSU scored just 4 points over a 10 minute span. This seemed to wake us up again as over the final 4:44 we scored 13 points to get the lead back and close the game out. While happy to win, Wade at this point came out pissed off we cannot maintain any kind of decent lead and said he is going to get into it with the team now.

A1abama as of recent
Bama has been red hot lately winning their last 4 games after a somewhat disappointing 8-7, 1-2 SEC start to the season. They picked up a huge win over Auburn who they demolished and have cruised to 3 wins since then over overmatched Missouri, Vandy and Kansas State squads averaging just over 81 points per contest in the last 4 and not scoring less than 77. Nate Oats will bring a high powered up tempo offense to the PMAC Wednesday night.

A1abama projected starters
PF (6'9, 245) JR. Alex Reese
SF (6'7, 205) JR. Herbert Jones
SG (6'5, 184) JR. John Petty
SG (6'3, 195) FR. Jaden Shackelford
PG (6'3, 165) SO. Kira Lewis Jr.

Alex Reese has the size of a college center, but plays the stretch 4 position for Bama offensively. He takes 5, yes, 5 3 pointers a game and shoots 35% from 3 on the season. He rarely is taking shots from inside the arc but will clean up some things around the rim and in 23.3 minutes in conference play is averaging 9.5 points, just 4.2 boards (0.5 offensively) and has a 15.8 conference PER while being 51.4% from the floor. He has just over 1 block per game, so while he’s their best rim protector isn’t a particularly notable one.

Herb Jones is a long small forward who does almost all his work inside the arc and really around the rim. He will not put up much if any 3 pointers and in 30.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 12.8 points, 8.3 rebounds (2.7 offensive), 3.2 assists and 1.3 steals. His conference PER is a very good 23.6 with shooting 52.2% from the floor.

John Petty is Bama’s sharpshooter averaging over 7 3 attempts per game and shooting it at a ridiculous 47.8%. He also will take it inside too and is probably Bama’s best raw scorer. In 36.7 minutes conference minutes per game is averaging 17.2 points, 7.2 boards (only 0.8 offensive), 1.8 assists on 46% from the floor with a 18.6 PER. You ALWAYS have to have a hand in this guy’s face on the perimeter or he will make you pay repeatedly. He also looks a lot like The Simpson’s Sideshow Bob.

Jaden Shackelford was Bama’s top recruit coming in and has seen his role increase into a starting one in SEC play. In 26.0 minutes per game in conference he’s averaging 10.7 points, 4.7 boards (0.7 offensive), 1.2 assists on just 36% from the floor. He will take more 3’s than 2’s but they haven’t been falling in conference play as much as he’d like. I think he’s a future good player, but maybe not quite arrived yet. His conference PER is 14.2.

Kira Lewis Jr. is a slightly built scoring PG who isn’t necessarily great with the ball but makes up for it with his ability to score. In 37.5 conference minutes per game he’s averaging 15.8 points, 6 rebounds (1.2 offensive), 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 3.8 turnovers on 40% from the floor. Despite a propensity to turn the ball over a bit, like Petty they leave him out there almost entire games as he’s an important piece to their game. His conference PER is 15.8.

A1abama top bench players
CG (6'0, 160) GR. James “Beetle” Bolden
C (6’9, 240) JR. Galin Smith
C (6'9, 242) rFR. Javian Davis
SG (6’4, 186) FR. Jaylen Forbes

Bama will use their bench a little bit as these 4 guys are most often appearing in conference games. Bolden is a transfer from WVU and is their scorer off the bench in 20 conference minutes per game averaging 9.2 points but on just 33% from the floor. Smith and Davis are the 2 true bigs Bama brings off the bench as neither of these guys are shooting 3’s but help out with rebounding more so in Davis’ case and Smith a little more of a scorer (4.7 points in 14 minutes there). Forbes we might not see much of the youngster as he’s averaging just 8 minutes per SEC game with 2 points and under 2 boards. Smith and Bolden are probably their best 2 guys off the bench by a good margin.

This Bama team loves to shoot the 3 but aren’t a slouch from inside the arc either. They average just 15 seconds per possession and get shot sup very quick. They aren’t great on the offensive glass but their 3 point shooting is something that could worry us as they haven’t been great in conference play at 33.3% but we’ve allowed a conference worst 37.2% from 3 as we just refuse to guard the 3 point line so many times. Lewis and Petty are the guys they will just leave out there and who you have to focus down scoring wise as much as you can. Don’t sleep on Herb Jones though because he will clean up a lot and beat you inside for a lot of free throws too. Their defensive efficiency in conference play has been very good allowing a low effective FG% and play the best 2 point defense in the conference which is our best strength.

Not going to lie, this is not a great matchup on paper for us. I don’t think we’ll be bothered by the super fast tempo Bama plays with, but their best defensive strength is our best offensive strength (2 point shots) and what they like to do the most (shoot 3’s), we don’t like to defend. We love to hit the glass hard (#1 in conference), but Bama defends that best in conference as well. Now Bama doesn’t have a lot of scary bigs by any shape of the imagination, but they still play more beef than we’ll be used to seeing in Reese, Smith and Davis all at 6’9 and stout. Herb Jones plays like a mad man inside too and is a tough guy. They go an extra player or player and a half deep than us which plays to their strength of run and gun. With the game at home, kenpom has us as a winner by 5, but I could easily see this going the other way as well with Bama on a roll and their strengths either countering our strengths or playing to our weaknesses pretty well. Either way, I would expect a shootout in this one, that drumroll…goes down to the wire once again!

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 86 Bama 81

This post was edited on 1/28/20 at 12:25 pm