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Baseball - Hosting Chances
Posted on 4/25/22 at 9:32 am
Posted on 4/25/22 at 9:32 am
Still a touch early for this but what does this team need to do to close out the year to be in a position to host?
RPI is up to 16 per D1 Baseball. Sitting at 10 SEC wins. Last year, UF got to host with 17 SEC wins.
Seems like 17 would be the number to have us in serious contention? That means they'd have to close out going 7-5 vs. UGA (#5 RPI), at Bama (#42 RPI), vs. OM (#64 RPI), and at Vandy (#8 RPI).
Not sure how this field of potential regional hosts stacks up to last years.
RPI is up to 16 per D1 Baseball. Sitting at 10 SEC wins. Last year, UF got to host with 17 SEC wins.
Seems like 17 would be the number to have us in serious contention? That means they'd have to close out going 7-5 vs. UGA (#5 RPI), at Bama (#42 RPI), vs. OM (#64 RPI), and at Vandy (#8 RPI).
Not sure how this field of potential regional hosts stacks up to last years.
10
Posted on 4/25/22 at 9:36 am to I10 Bengal
Several mid majors like GA Southern, Zaga and Southern Miss are looking to host.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 9:38 am to I10 Bengal
Tough to say exactly what we need to do to host, but I do believe the target probably should be 17 SEC wins minimum. That's playing 7-5 ball from here on out, and probably doing some damage in SECT. If we go 8-4 from here on out, I think 18-12 gets us a host for sure.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 9:56 am to I10 Bengal
These two teams are likely locks to host right now unless Arkansas implodes down the stretch.
Tennessee 17-1 RPI (1)
Arkansas 12-6 RPI (27)
These are the only other realistic teams left to host. I think the SEC will get at least 3 from this group...maybe 4 depending on the RPI's. 17 wins is going to be about the bare minimum this year.
Georgia 11-7 RPI (5)
Vanderbilt 9-9 RPI (8)
Auburn 11-7 (16)
Texas A&M 10-8 RPI (21)
LSU 10-8 RPI (18)
Alabama 9-9 RPI (42)
Also what is nice if you're LSU...you control you're own destiny here...so it's up to them if they want to host.
Tennessee 17-1 RPI (1)
Arkansas 12-6 RPI (27)
These are the only other realistic teams left to host. I think the SEC will get at least 3 from this group...maybe 4 depending on the RPI's. 17 wins is going to be about the bare minimum this year.
Georgia 11-7 RPI (5)
Vanderbilt 9-9 RPI (8)
Auburn 11-7 (16)
Texas A&M 10-8 RPI (21)
LSU 10-8 RPI (18)
Alabama 9-9 RPI (42)
Also what is nice if you're LSU...you control you're own destiny here...so it's up to them if they want to host.
This post was edited on 4/25/22 at 10:01 am
Posted on 4/25/22 at 10:00 am to Adam4848
17 wins and 1 in the tourney will have us hosting
Posted on 4/25/22 at 10:11 am to I10 Bengal
If we get to 16 or less, we probably don't host. If we get to 17, we probably host. If we get to 18 or more, we definitely host.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:04 pm to I10 Bengal
I think if we get to 16 we are in good shape to host a regional. Anything more is just icing on the cake.
I think we can get to 18 SEC wins. I think 16 is easily obtainable.
I think we can get to 18 SEC wins. I think 16 is easily obtainable.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:12 pm to I10 Bengal
Have to sweep either Bama or Ole Miss. Otherwise, they'd have to win the series against either Vandy and UGA.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:18 pm to I10 Bengal
19 wins+ = national seed
18 wins = lock to host, knocking on door of top 8
17 wins = should host, but possible we travel as a 2 seed
Anything less and we are going on the road somewhere.
18 wins = lock to host, knocking on door of top 8
17 wins = should host, but possible we travel as a 2 seed
Anything less and we are going on the road somewhere.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:40 pm to bubbz
quote:
17 wins = should host, but possible we travel as a 2 seed
I don't think there's any way we wouldn't host with 17 conference wins with the way the SEC schedule has played out this year. That would likely have us finishing 3rd or 4th in the SEC and a top 10 RPI
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:41 pm to lsufball19
We hosting
We riding
Book it
We riding
Book it
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:47 pm to Adam4848
quote:
I think the SEC will get at least 3 from this group...maybe 4 depending on the RPI's
I’m not so sure the SEC will get 5 host sites, let alone 6. Not with how top heavy the league is with Tenn and Ark. Throw in the mid majors like USM, Ga. Southern and Gonzaga and I could see the SEC possibly only getting four, though I would expect 5.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:50 pm to I10 Bengal
Here is the way to look at it.
You want to win 2/3 every home series and 1/3 on the road. That is the minimum baseline. It will get you 15-15, and into the postseason.
We haven't taken that exact path, but bottom line is we are 1 game ahead of that pace.
If we can somehow turn that +1 into a +2 over the next four weekends we are in host contention. +3 probably a safe host. +4 and we are talking hosting a super as well.
You want to win 2/3 every home series and 1/3 on the road. That is the minimum baseline. It will get you 15-15, and into the postseason.
We haven't taken that exact path, but bottom line is we are 1 game ahead of that pace.
If we can somehow turn that +1 into a +2 over the next four weekends we are in host contention. +3 probably a safe host. +4 and we are talking hosting a super as well.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:56 pm to LSUgrad88
quote:
I’m not so sure the SEC will get 5 host sites
quote:
though I would expect 5.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 1:59 pm to Adam4848
SEC will get a minimum of 5 host sites, probably 6, with 3 being National Seeds. Tennessee, Arky, and the next best Record/RPI combination will get the 3rd seed.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:10 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
playing 7-5 ball
That is easily achievable:
Two each from Georgia & OleMiss at home. Two at Bama, one from Vandy.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:21 pm to RockChalkTiger
Taking two from Georgia is no gimme
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:23 pm to RockChalkTiger
Perusing the remaining series, here is the predicted order.
1. Tenn at 20+ and whatever
2. Arky 20-10
3. Texas8&4 18-12 (assumes 5-1 against Miss schools)
4. LSU 17-13 (win series v UGA, @Bama, v OM, and take 1 @Vandy)
Tied at 5. AU/UGA/Vandy 16-14
We need UT to continue their winning ways(sweep) vs AU and UGA, Arky to handle @AU, Vandy, and @Bama.
If, and it's a big if, the Miss schools play a great series, let's hope both are against the Aggies.
1. Tenn at 20+ and whatever
2. Arky 20-10
3. Texas8&4 18-12 (assumes 5-1 against Miss schools)
4. LSU 17-13 (win series v UGA, @Bama, v OM, and take 1 @Vandy)
Tied at 5. AU/UGA/Vandy 16-14
We need UT to continue their winning ways(sweep) vs AU and UGA, Arky to handle @AU, Vandy, and @Bama.
If, and it's a big if, the Miss schools play a great series, let's hope both are against the Aggies.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:32 pm to bigdipper
Georgia has the worst ERA in the league—that should play to our strengths. Getting one in Nashville the last week might be tough.
Posted on 4/25/22 at 2:45 pm to Adam4848
quote:
so it's up to them if they want to host
How would you equate that to fielding a ground ball and throwing to first?
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